Generated: 2026-09-07 05:37:53 EST
01 — MODEL SCORECARD
How Our Picks Did — Thursday, Sep 3
165/359 correct — 46.0%
BEARISH 108/189 (57.1%) vs BULLISH 57/170 (33.5%)
Balanced display sample: 10 of 359 validated tickers (highest stored model scores, up to half per direction). Stored score is the archived model output, not realized accuracy. Accuracy above covers the full session. Signal return is the move in the called direction (long bullish / short bearish, before costs) — a correct bearish call shows as a gain.
| Ticker |
Predicted |
Stored Score |
Actual |
Result |
Signal Return |
| CE |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-1.17% |
| EOG |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-0.53% |
| FE |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-0.57% |
| MO |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-0.10% |
| MOS |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+1.41% |
| AME |
↓ BEARISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
-1.50% |
| BIO |
↓ BEARISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✓ |
+0.46% |
| CCL |
↓ BEARISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
-0.13% |
| CHD |
↓ BEARISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✓ |
+0.04% |
| CSX |
↓ BEARISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
-0.86% |
04 — NEWS & EVENTS
📰 MARKET-RELEVANT NEWS
💼 Business & Markets:
🏛️ Economy & Fed:
🇺🇸 US News:
🌍 World News:
💻 Technology:
📊 13 of 36 headlines shown
🎯 CORE ENTITY TRACKER
Key individuals and organizations driving markets today
🇺🇸 US Political:
- 🔴 Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] — 6 mentions, 4 sources
As War Grinds On, Trump Relishes Renovation Projects
- ⚪ Marco Rubio [EEM, FXI, KWEB] — 1 mention, 1 source
In Peru, the Trump Administration Sees the Limits of Its Anti-China Push
🌍 Geopolitical:
- 🟡 Volodymyr Zelenskyy [WEAT, EWG, VGK] — 2 mentions, 2 sources
Zelensky says he expects war to continue into winter after talks with US en...
- ⚪ Ali Khamenei [USO, XLE, GLD] — 1 mention, 1 source
Iran warns of 'faster, heavier, more painful response' to US attacks
- ⚪ Vladimir Putin [USO, XLE, WEAT, RSX] — 1 mention, 1 source
U.S. Envoys Witkoff and Kushner Arrive in Kyiv After Talks With Putin
🏛️ Institutions:
- ⚪ Federal Reserve [SPY, TLT, GLD, QQQ] — 1 mention, 1 source
Trump turns up the heat on Warsh as Fed rate hike looms
Signal strength: 🔴 high (5+ mentions or corroborated) 🟡 medium (2+ mentions) ⚪ low
📅 IMPORTANT EVENTS TOMORROW
===================================
📆 Date: Tuesday, September 08, 2026
📅 OTHER EVENTS:
💡 TRADING IMPLICATIONS:
- Markets returning to normal activity
- Potential for catch-up moves
🎯 ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)
A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 → buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.
Signal state (as of 2026-09-04 close):
- SPY — open hold window, day 3 of 5 (fired 2026-09-01). Entering mid-window was not part of the validated timing — informational only.
- IWM — open hold window, day 4 of 5 (fired 2026-08-31). Entering mid-window was not part of the validated timing — informational only.
- VTI — open hold window, day 3 of 5 (fired 2026-09-01). Entering mid-window was not part of the validated timing — informational only.
- XLY — no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 66 trading days ago)
Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):
- SPY — 268 trades since 1993: 65.3% win vs 57.9% above-trend base · +0.58% avg per 5-day trade
- IWM — 193 trades since 2000: 62.2% win vs 53.1% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
- VTI — 194 trades since 2001: 64.4% win vs 57.6% above-trend base · +0.47% avg per 5-day trade
- XLY — 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.0% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
⚠️ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated — simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was −8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.
🎥 FINANCE YOUTUBE (what independent analysts are arguing)
Curated synthesis of independent finance and macro YouTubers we track. These are THEIR views — attributed, not ours — and are NOT graded signals: we log the falsifiable calls and will score them over time. Idea sourcing and context, not a validated edge, not financial advice.
This week: 8 video(s) from 4 creator(s). Macro tilt 0 bullish / 6 bearish / 1 neutral / 1 mixed.
Recurring themes: sovereign-debt-crisis, bond-vigilantes, financial-repression, fed-money-printing, inflation-ahead
Creators lean bullish: SHV (1ch)
Creators lean bearish: TLT (2ch), WE (1ch), META (1ch), PELTON (1ch), DXY (1ch), SNAP (1ch)
Latest takes:
Falsifiable calls we're tracking:
- Casual Finance — ABP pension fund bond sales impact BEARISH (~477d): ABP's conversion in January 2027, representing one-third of Dutch pension system assets (~500 billion euros), will trigger the largest wave of long-bond sell…
- Casual Finance — European long-end bond yields (10Y-30Y) BULLISH (~455d): Dutch pension fund unwinding of 100-150 billion euros in long-dated bonds and swaps will cause measurable upward pressure on 30-year bond yields in 2026-2027.
⚠️ Third-party opinions, tracked and attributed — not MoneySignals signals and not yet graded. We surface them for context and will score their accuracy as the calls resolve. Not financial advice.
🎯 MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS
📰 Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:
🟢 DFEN, GLD, XLE, VXX
🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN
🟢 DFEN, GLD, VXX, XLE
🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD
📊 Ticker Signal Summary:
- 🟢 Bullish: GLD (Related to) ×5, DFEN (Related to) ×3, XLE (Related to) ×3, VXX (Related to) ×2, NVDA (Related to) ×2, MSFT (Related to) ×2
- 🔴 Bearish: TLT (Related to) ×2, QQQ (Related to) ×1
- ⚪ Mixed: DJT (Related to) ×4, USO (Related to) ×1, XOM (Related to) ×1, XLF (Related to) ×1
🧠 MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES
PART 1 - TOP STORIES SUMMARY:
Theme 1: Tech Hardware & Infrastructure Leading the Tape
Semiconductor Materials & Equipment (+5.6%) and Electronic Components (+3.3%) are driving clear sector leadership today. This suggests institutional rotation into capital-intensive, supply-chain-critical tech infrastructure — likely driven by AI buildout demand narratives and/or positive earnings revisions in the chip ecosystem. This is a risk-on signal within a selective market.
Theme 2: Consumer & Discretionary Under Pressure
The bottom performers tell a coherent story — Apparel/Luxury (-4.2%), Advertising (-3.4%), and HR/Employment Services (-2.8%) are all consumer-facing, cyclical, or sentiment-driven businesses. This points to growing concern about consumer spending durability and potentially softening labor market conditions, even without confirmed economic data today. The model's bearish call on PEP (95% confidence) reinforces this consumer weakness narrative.
Theme 3: Model Skew Bearish Despite Crypto Optimism
The overall model posture (8 bullish vs. 12 bearish signals) conflicts with Crypto Fear & Greed at 71 (Greed territory). This divergence is notable — crypto markets are leaning risk-on while equity models are net cautious. This split may reflect crypto's idiosyncratic momentum versus macro headwinds pressuring traditional equities.
PART 2 - SHORT-TERM OPPORTUNITIES:
- Bearish conviction is unusually concentrated: PEP at 95% bearish confidence is the single strongest model signal today. Combined with the broader consumer weakness theme visible in sector data, this is a high-conviction short setup. Watch for any price bounce into resistance as an entry point. No contradicting signals present.
- FICO (82% bearish) is interesting given its exposure to credit markets and consumer financial health. If employment services weakness (-2.8% in the sector) is a leading indicator of softening labor, FICO's consumer credit scoring business faces a deteriorating demand/quality backdrop. Short FICO aligns across model + sector narrative.
- SWK (Stanley Black & Decker, 82% bullish) stands out as the top bullish signal. Though not directly in the leading semiconductor sectors, SWK's industrial/tools exposure may benefit from infrastructure and energy-adjacent capex themes. Watch for volume confirmation — the 82% model confidence warrants attention even without direct sector tailwind.
- ICE and KEY (68% and 70% bullish respectively) represent a financials cluster worth monitoring. ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) benefits from volatility and trading volume environments, and if crypto greed (71) spills into broader asset volatility, exchange operators capture fee revenue regardless of direction. KEY (KeyCorp regional bank) is more rate-sensitive — monitor for any macro catalyst that could accelerate or undermine this call.
- Contrarian flag on LUV (Southwest Airlines, 73% bearish): Airlines are highly sensitive to consumer discretionary spending, fuel costs, and labor — all of which are under pressure per today's sector data. The bearish model call here has strong thematic backing. However, any positive demand data or fare pricing news could squeeze shorts, so size accordingly.
- Sector rotation play: The Semiconductor Materials & Equipment surge (+5.6%) without specific ticker model signals suggests looking at ETFs or components in that space (**AMAT, KLAC
📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - SECRET TIER
All Global Events (Sorted by Impact)
Data Collected: 2026-09-07 05:37:49
💱 AUD EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 2:30am - RBA Deputy Gov Hauser Speaks
Forecast: | Previous:
💱 CNY EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 - PPI y/y
Forecast: 3.6% | Previous: 3.5%
🕐 6:30pm - CPI y/y
Forecast: 0.9% | Previous: 0.5%
💱 EUR EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 11:45pm - French Industrial Production m/m
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
💱 JPY EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 11:00pm - Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
Forecast: | Previous: 50.4%
🕐 4:50pm - M2 Money Stock y/y
Forecast: 2.2% | Previous: 2.2%
💱 USD EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 12:00pm - Consumer Credit m/m
Forecast: 13.2B | Previous: 14.2B
🕐 3:00am - NFIB Small Business Index
Forecast: 99.2 | Previous: 99.8
📊 DETAILED DATA:
- Complete CSV data available in attachment
- File: economic_calendar_20260908_053626.csv
💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:
- All global economic events
- Sorted by currency and impact level
- Complete CSV data included
📊 PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS
Latest Options Activity: 2026-09-02
Market Sentiment Interpretation:
🐻⚠️ Moderately Bearish - Elevated put activity
Key Ratios:
- TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.840
Overall market sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.560
Individual stock sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.910
Index options sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.330
Volatility sentiment - 🐻📉 Very Bearish (VIX Call buying >> VIX Put buying - High volatility expected)
💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:
- Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
- All key market sentiment indicators
03 — MARKET SENTIMENT
📊 FEAR & GREED INDEX
Data Collected: 2026-09-07 05:37:51
🏛️ Stock Market: 41/100 - FEAR 🟡
💡 Pessimistic sentiment
₿ Crypto Market: 71/100 - GREED 🟡
💡 Fear & Greed Insights:
- Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
- Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
- Use as contrarian indicator for market timing
🔬 CAUSAL VALIDATION
Grade distribution across 13 validated models: F:13
High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) — predictions have statistically confirmed signal
⚠️ 13 low-validity models (D/F): FFIV, FICO, ICE, IFF, KEY, KEYS, LUV, MET, ODFL, PAYC, SWK, WDC, WTW
Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.
🏛️ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES
📊 48 trades in last 14 days
🟢 4 Purchases | 🔴 44 Sales
Senate: 4 | House: 44
Most Active Tickers:
- 🟢 Bought: AAPL ×1, EQIX ×1, NVDA ×1, AMAT ×1
- 🔴 Sold: ACN ×3, MBGL ×3, NVDA ×2, BA ×2, PG ×2
Recent Notable Trades:
- 🔴 NVDA sold by Sheldon Whitehouse (D-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 ADBE sold by Kevin Hern (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 BA sold by Kevin Hern (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 DIS sold by Kevin Hern (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 HD sold by Kevin Hern (R-H) — $50,001 - $100,000
- 🔴 HONA sold by Kevin Hern (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 ICLR sold by Kevin Hern (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 MDT sold by Kevin Hern (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
—
Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant
02 — TODAY'S PREDICTIONS
🎯 Ticker Momentum
Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.
| # |
Ticker |
Score |
Daily Dir |
Daily Conf |
Daily AUC |
Weekly Dir |
Weekly Conf |
Weekly AUC |
Monthly Dir |
Monthly Conf |
Monthly AUC |
MR Q |
Regime |
Val |
Coverage |
| 1 |
FICO |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
81.5% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 2 |
KEY |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
69.8% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 3 |
MET |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
73.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 4 |
SWK |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
82.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 5 |
FFIV |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
67.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 6 |
ICE |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
68.5% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 7 |
LUV |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
72.9% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 8 |
PEP |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
95.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
Lower Confidence Picks
(calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)
| # |
Ticker |
Score |
Daily Dir |
Daily Conf |
Daily AUC |
Weekly Dir |
Weekly Conf |
Weekly AUC |
Monthly Dir |
Monthly Conf |
Monthly AUC |
MR Q |
Regime |
Val |
Coverage |
| 1 |
AOS |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
46.9% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 2 |
KEYS |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
20.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 3 |
MSFT |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
20.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 4 |
OXY |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
41.5% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 5 |
RCL |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
20.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 6 |
TRMB |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
20.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 7 |
WDC |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
20.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 8 |
WTW |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
54.5% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 9 |
IFF |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
30.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 10 |
JNJ |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
41.8% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 11 |
ODFL |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
26.8% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 12 |
PAYC |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
20.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
📖 Legend
⚡ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%
📈 ↑ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum
📉 ↓ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum
Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting
AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)
Val: Causal validity grade (A–F) — statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal | C = moderate | D = 25% size | F = skipped by trading engine
MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold — potential bounce candidate |
Q4 Mildly oversold |
Q3 Neutral |
Q2 Mildly overbought |
Q1 Most overbought — potential fade candidate
Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend
Bull / Bear / Neutral
Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)
🟢 Green rows: High confidence (≥60%)
🔴 Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)
Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41%
(calibrated confidence reflects this)
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⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
📊 MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values.
They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.
💰 FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.
🚫 NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.
🤖 AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.
📈 SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.
📊 DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.
⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.
👤 INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
For questions or concerns, contact: dave@moneysignals.us