MoneySignals Daily Predictions · Top Predictions
2026-09-01 (Tuesday) · secret tier
Tickers
382
With Signals
382
Daily
382
Weekly
0
Monthly
0

Generated: 2026-08-31 05:36:54 EST

01 — MODEL SCORECARD
How Our Picks Did — Friday, Aug 28
3/10 correct — 30% BULLISH calls 30%
Ticker Predicted Conf Actual Result Return
IRM ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -4.31%
CSX ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -0.50%
CDNS ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -2.06%
IFF ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +1.27%
CE ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.29%
CINF ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -0.32%
AIG ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.39%
AES ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -0.14%
EG ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -0.01%
KEY ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -0.50%
04 — NEWS & EVENTS
📰 MARKET-RELEVANT NEWS

💼 Business & Markets:

🏛️ Economy & Fed:

📊 7 of 35 headlines shown
🎯 CORE ENTITY TRACKER

Key individuals and organizations driving markets today

🇺🇸 US Political:
  • 🔴 Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] — 7 mentions, 6 sources
The U.S. Venezuela oil deal won't lower your gas prices. Here's what you ne...
  • ⚪ Elon Musk [TSLA, TWTR, SPY] — 1 mention, 1 source
Musk’s faster path to more gas turbines comes with pollution problem

🌍 Geopolitical:
  • 🟡 Xi Jinping [FXI, KWEB, BABA, EEM] — 2 mentions, 2 sources
Xi, Modi and Putin set to meet for SCO summit: What’s on the agenda?
  • ⚪ Vladimir Putin [USO, XLE, WEAT, RSX] — 1 mention, 1 source
Xi, Modi and Putin set to meet for SCO summit: What’s on the agenda?

Signal strength: 🔴 high (5+ mentions or corroborated) 🟡 medium (2+ mentions) ⚪ low
📅 Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.
🎯 ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)

A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 → buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.

Signal state (as of 2026-08-28 close):
  • SPY — no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 22 trading days ago)
  • IWM — no fire (last: 2026-07-20, 29 trading days ago)
  • VTI — no fire (last: 2026-08-18, 8 trading days ago)
  • XLY — no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 61 trading days ago)
No active fire — the normal state. Fires average 8-10 per year per ETF.

Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):
  • SPY — 268 trades since 1993: 65.3% win vs 57.9% above-trend base · +0.58% avg per 5-day trade
  • IWM — 193 trades since 2000: 62.2% win vs 53.2% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
  • VTI — 194 trades since 2001: 64.4% win vs 57.6% above-trend base · +0.47% avg per 5-day trade
  • XLY — 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.0% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade

⚠️ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated — simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was −8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.

📡 Live state, per-timing splits and every caveat via the free API: GET /api/v1/signals/etf-pullback — included with the free key every subscriber already has.
🎯 MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS

📰 Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:

1. Brent oil tops $90 after first U.S. and Iran fighting in a month
🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN

2. U.S., Iran exchange strikes for first time since July as Trump threatens strategic oi...
🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN

3. Russia preparing 'massive strikes' on Ukraine's energy sites after deadliest attack o...
🟢 GLD, XLE, DFEN · 🔴 RSX

4. Meta Security Researcher's AI Agent Accidentally Deleted Her Emails
🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD

5. The U.S. Venezuela oil deal won't lower your gas prices. Here's what you need to know

6. China Prepared for One Kind of Himalayan Flood. Then a Different Disaster Struck.

📊 Ticker Signal Summary:
  • 🟢 Bullish: GLD (Related to) ×5, DFEN (Related to) ×5, XLE (Related to) ×5, WEAT (Related to) ×1, NVDA (Related to) ×1, MSFT (Related to) ×1
  • 🔴 Bearish: RSX (Related to) ×1
  • ⚪ Mixed: USO (Related to) ×3, FXI (Related to) ×3, BABA (Related to) ×3, KWEB (Related to) ×3
🧠 MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES

PART 1 - TOP STORIES SUMMARY:

  • Commodities & Energy Dominance: The most powerful narrative today centers on hard assets and energy. XLE, GLD, and USO-adjacent plays are all capturing bullish attention, with XLE and GLD showing clean 5B/0b and 4B/0b news signals respectively. OXY appearing in the top bullish model predictions (49%) reinforces this — energy equities are being bid alongside gold, suggesting either inflation hedging, geopolitical risk premium, or both are driving institutional flows today.

  • Defense + Commodity Convergence: DFEN carrying a strong 5B/0b bullish signal alongside agricultural strength (WEAT bullish, Agricultural Products sector +3.3%) paints a picture of a market pricing in global instability. When defense aerospace and food commodities rally simultaneously, it historically reflects geopolitical tension narratives dominating macro sentiment — traders should treat this as a coherent risk theme, not isolated sector moves.

  • Tech Hardware Under Pressure: Semiconductors (-2.4%), Electronic Components (-2.4%), and Electrical Components (-3.0%) are today's clear underperformers. The bearish model calls on FFIV, NTAP, FICO, and KEYS (despite a weak bullish model score) suggest the tech-adjacent hardware and infrastructure space is facing broad selling pressure — potentially rotation *out* of high-multiple tech into value and commodities.


PART 2 - SHORT-TERM OPPORTUNITIES:

  • The model is skewed bearish overall (8 bullish vs. 12 bearish predictions) even as the Crypto Fear & Greed sits at 62 (Greed territory). This divergence is notable — risk appetite in crypto hasn't translated to broad equity optimism, suggesting selective rather than broad-based buying. Traders should avoid assuming a rising tide today.

  • BIO (95% bullish model confidence) is the highest-conviction long signal of the session. With no contradicting news sentiment and a clean model score, this is worth watching for a technical breakout setup. Biotech as a sector often moves idiosyncratically, making this more of a stock-specific catalyst play than a sector bet.

  • IFF (95% bullish) is equally high-conviction and sits within the specialty chemicals/agricultural ingredients space — which *aligns* with the Agricultural Products sector momentum (+3.3%) today. This is a multi-signal confluence trade: strong model prediction + sector tailwind. IFF deserves priority attention as a high-quality setup.

  • NKE (86% bearish model) is the clearest short-side opportunity. Consumer discretionary pressure combined with a high-confidence bearish prediction makes this actionable. Notably, Broadline Retail is *up* today (+3.6%), suggesting consumers are trading down — which structurally hurts premium brands like Nike. The sector rotation itself validates the bearish thesis.

  • FFIV and NTAP (both 75% bearish) fit neatly within the tech infrastructure selloff narrative. With Electronic Components and Semiconductors both down hard today, these networking/storage names face sector headwinds on top of model bearishness — a rare alignment of top-down sector pressure and bottom-up model conviction. Consider paired short exposure or put strategies.

  • OXY offers a nuanced long opportunity — 49% bullish model score is modest,
📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - SECRET TIER
All Global Events (Sorted by Impact)
Data Collected: 2026-08-31 05:36:51

💱 AUD EVENTS:
🔴 High IMPACT:
🕐 6:30pm - GDP q/q
Forecast: | Previous: 0.3%

💱 CAD EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 6:30am - Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: | Previous: 53.5

💱 CHF EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 12:30am - Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: | Previous: 53.2

💱 EUR EVENTS:
🟡 Medium IMPACT:
🕐 - CPI Flash Estimate y/y
Forecast: | Previous: 2.9%
🕐 2:00am - Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
Forecast: | Previous: 2.5%

🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 - Italian Prelim CPI m/m
Forecast: | Previous: 0.2%
🕐 - Unemployment Rate
Forecast: | Previous: 6.3%
🕐 11:45pm - French Gov Budget Balance
Forecast: | Previous: -106.8B
🕐 12:15am - Spanish Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: | Previous: 50.2
🕐 12:45am - Italian Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: | Previous: 51.3
🕐 12:50am - French Final Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: | Previous: 51.5
🕐 12:55am - German Final Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: | Previous: 54.1
🕐 1:00am - Final Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: | Previous: 52.8
🕐 1:30am - Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
Forecast: | Previous: 5.7%

💱 GBP EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 - Final Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: | Previous: 51.5
🕐 - M4 Money Supply m/m
Forecast: | Previous: 0.8%
🕐 - Mortgage Approvals
Forecast: | Previous: 58K
🕐 - Net Lending to Individuals m/m
Forecast: | Previous: 9.5B

💱 JPY EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 4:50pm - Monetary Base y/y
Forecast: | Previous: -13.8%

💱 NZD EVENTS:
🔴 High IMPACT:
🕐 - RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Forecast: | Previous:
🕐 - RBNZ Rate Statement
Forecast: | Previous:
🕐 7:00pm - Official Cash Rate
Forecast: | Previous: 2.50%
🕐 8:00pm - RBNZ Press Conference
Forecast: | Previous:

🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 3:45pm - Building Consents m/m
Forecast: | Previous: -3.6%
🕐 Tentative - GDT Price Index
Forecast: | Previous: 2.3%

💱 USD EVENTS:
🔴 High IMPACT:
🕐 7:00am - ISM Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: | Previous: 55.6

🟡 Medium IMPACT:
🕐 - ISM Manufacturing Prices
Forecast: | Previous: 71.1
🕐 - JOLTS Job Openings
Forecast: | Previous: 7.36M

🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 - Construction Spending m/m
Forecast: | Previous: -0.1%
🕐 1:30pm - API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Forecast: | Previous:
🕐 6:45am - Final Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: | Previous: 53.2
🕐 All Day - Omdia Total Vehicle Sales
Forecast: | Previous: 16.3M
🕐 Tentative - RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
Forecast: | Previous: 45.1

📊 DETAILED DATA:
  • Complete CSV data available in attachment
  • File: economic_calendar_20260901_053559.csv

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:
  • All global economic events
  • Sorted by currency and impact level
  • Complete CSV data included
📊 PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS
Latest Options Activity: 2026-08-27

Market Sentiment Interpretation:
🐂✅ Bullish - More call activity than put activity

Key Ratios:
  • TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.730
Overall market sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

  • EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.390
Individual stock sentiment - 🐂📈 Very Bullish (Call buying >> Put buying - Upside expectation)

  • INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.920
Index options sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

  • CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.420
Volatility sentiment - 🐻📉 Very Bearish (VIX Call buying >> VIX Put buying - High volatility expected)

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:
  • Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
  • All key market sentiment indicators
03 — MARKET SENTIMENT
Stock Market
54
Neutral
Crypto
62
Greed
📊 FEAR & GREED INDEX
Data Collected: 2026-08-31 05:36:52

🏛️ Stock Market: 54/100 - NEUTRAL ⚪
💡 Balanced sentiment

₿ Crypto Market: 62/100 - GREED 🟡

💡 Fear & Greed Insights:
  • Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
  • Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
  • Use as contrarian indicator for market timing
🔬 CAUSAL VALIDATION
Grade distribution across 10 validated models: F:10
High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) — predictions have statistically confirmed signal

⚠️ 10 low-validity models (D/F): FFIV, FICO, ICE, IFF, KEY, KEYS, LUV, NKE, SWK, WTW
Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.
🏛️ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES

📊 42 trades in last 14 days
🟢 23 Purchases | 🔴 19 Sales
Senate: 9 | House: 33

Most Active Tickers:
  • 🟢 Bought: BE ×4, INTC ×2, GOOGL ×2, AMAT ×1, IBP ×1
  • 🔴 Sold: ACN ×3, MBGL ×3, GOOGL ×2, GWW ×1, STE ×1

Recent Notable Trades:
  • 🔴 ACN sold by Kelly Morrison (D-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
  • 🔴 GOOGL sold by Michael A. Rulli (R-H) — $50,001 - $100,000
  • 🟢 BE bought by Nancy Pelosi (D-H) — $1,000,001 - $5,000,000
  • 🟢 BE bought by Nancy Pelosi (D-H) — $500,001 - $1,000,000
  • 🟢 BE bought by Nancy Pelosi (D-H) — $500,001 - $1,000,000
  • 🟢 BE bought by Nancy Pelosi (D-H) — $1,000,001 - $5,000,000
  • 🟢 INTC bought by Nancy Pelosi (D-H) — $500,001 - $1,000,000
  • 🟢 INTC bought by Nancy Pelosi (D-H) — $250,001 - $500,000

—
Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant
02 — TODAY'S PREDICTIONS

🎯 Ticker Momentum

Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.

# Ticker Score Daily Dir Daily Conf Daily AUC Weekly Dir Weekly Conf Weekly AUC Monthly Dir Monthly Conf Monthly AUC MR Q Regime Val Coverage
1 AOS 100 📉 ↓ 58.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
2 BIO 100 📈 ↑ 95.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
3 FICO 100 📉 ↓ 75.1%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
4 WTW 100 📉 ↓ 58.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
5 FFIV 100 📉 ↓ 75.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
6 IFF 100 📈 ↑ 95.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
7 LUV 100 📉 ↓ 64.5%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
8 NKE 100 📉 ↓ 86.4%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
9 NTAP 100 📉 ↓ 75.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
Want more detail? See all 600+ predictions with live updates.
View Full Dashboard at MoneySignals.us →

Lower Confidence Picks (calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)

# Ticker Score Daily Dir Daily Conf Daily AUC Weekly Dir Weekly Conf Weekly AUC Monthly Dir Monthly Conf Monthly AUC MR Q Regime Val Coverage
1 KEY 100 📉 ↓ 48.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
2 KEYS 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
3 MSFT 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
4 OXY 100 📈 ↑ 48.6%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
5 RCL 100 📉 ↓ 48.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
6 SWK 100 📉 ↓ 48.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
7 TJX 100 📈 ↑ 38.4%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
8 TRMB 100 📉 ↓ 48.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
9 ZBRA 100 📉 ↓ 48.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
10 ICE 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
11 JNJ 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3

📖 Legend

⚡ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%

📈 ↑ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum

📉 ↓ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum

Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting

AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)

Val: Causal validity grade (A–F) — statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal  |  C = moderate  |  D = 25% size  |  F = skipped by trading engine

MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold — potential bounce candidate  |  Q4 Mildly oversold  |  Q3 Neutral  |  Q2 Mildly overbought  |  Q1 Most overbought — potential fade candidate

Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend   Bull / Bear / Neutral

Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)

🟢 Green rows: High confidence (≥60%)

🔴 Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)

Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41% (calibrated confidence reflects this)

Know someone who'd find this useful?
Share MoneySignals' daily predictions with your network
Subscribe at MoneySignals.us
Free tier available · Premium from $29/mo · API access from $49/mo
Share this link: moneysignals.us
▶️ New on YouTube
The Daily 60-Second Market Recap
A fresh Short every market morning — the day's top signals, the news moving them, and what we're watching, narrated in under a minute.
▶️ Watch & Subscribe
@investwithdave · new Shorts weekday mornings
💡 Sponsored
Meta Council — AI-Powered Decision Intelligence
Run any decision past a council of AI experts before you commit. Meta Council assembles specialized AI agents—finance, strategy, risk, contrarian—to stress-test your ideas from every angle. Think of it as a boardroom you can summon on demand.
Try Meta Council →
Promo Code INVESTOR2026 — exclusive extended trial

🚀 Want programmatic access?

REST API for 600+ ticker predictions, statistical analytics, and real-time signals

Explore moneysignals.us →

MoneySignals.us — Powered by AutoTrader ML System

📺 YouTube: @investwithdave

Terms of Service · Privacy Policy

Basic (Free) · Premium · Professional · API Starter · API Pro

⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

📊 MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values. They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.

💰 FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.

🚫 NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.

🤖 AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.

📈 SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.

📊 DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.

⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.

👤 INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
For questions or concerns, contact: dave@moneysignals.us