Generated: 2026-08-26 05:38:26 EST

01 — MODEL SCORECARD

How Our Picks Did — Tuesday, Aug 25

4/10 correct — 40% BULLISH calls 40%

Ticker	Predicted	Conf	Actual	Result	Return
CSX	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+0.14%
DG	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-2.19%
COO	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-3.64%
BXP	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+3.06%
CINF	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+0.12%
AON	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-1.19%
CI	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-0.40%
BF-B	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-1.98%
AIG	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-1.29%
DLR	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+2.00%

04 — NEWS & EVENTS

📰 MARKET-RELEVANT NEWS

💼 Business & Markets:

Mota-Engil Said to Win Deal for US-Backed Congo Copper Railway [Bloomberg] (20h ago)
‘The relationship quickly deteriorated’: My friend’s lawyer settled his injury case w... [MarketWatch] (20h ago)
Japan got caught in the tech selloff. Now it’s time to buy the dip, says strategist. [MarketWatch] (20h ago)
SAP stock slumps as UBS downgrades stock on ‘slow’ move into AI [MarketWatch] (20h ago)
Oil prices extend slide as Iran and Oman eye temporary Hormuz deal [MarketWatch] (20h ago)
Cnooc’s 1H Profit Rises After Iran War Boosted Oil Prices [Bloomberg] (20h ago)
Iran and Oman prepare Hormuz deal as U.S. holds back on secondary sanctions [CNBC] (22h ago)
Sen. Darline Graham, Trump's pick for South Carolina Senate, wins GOP primary [CNBC] (4h ago)

🏛️ Economy & Fed:

Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on July 20 and July 29, 2026 [Federal Reserve] (11h ago)
Stanley Druckenmiller leads doubters who think Bessent's bond ploys will fail [CNBC Economy] (12h ago)
What makes a great investor? [Economist] (12h ago)
China needs U.S. dollars but is building a hedge against Washington’s sanctions [CNBC Economy] (13h ago)
'They asked too much': Canadian dollar slides as Ottawa and Washington head for all-o... [CNBC Economy] (1d ago)
Bessent could tap near $1 trillion Treasury General Account to fund bond buybacks, so... [CNBC Economy] (1d ago)

🇺🇸 US News:

Even as Trump’s Standing Slips, He Slingshots Darline Graham to Victory [NYT US] (20h ago)
Their Children Want to Play Football. Parents Ask: Is It Worth the Risk? [NYT US] (20h ago)
Medication Mix-Up Leaves Knee Surgery Patient Paralyzed [NYT US] (20h ago)
Joe Manchin Pushes for More Independents to Join Congress [NYT US] (20h ago)
COMIC: 7 lifestyle habits that may boost your chances of getting pregnant [NPR News] (20h ago)
Soaring summer power bills spark protests -- and even disconnections [NPR News] (20h ago)
Hollywood's summer box office is glowing, but the numbers come with startling caveats [NPR News] (20h ago)
Canada's retaliation tests the limit of American power under Trump [BBC US] (20h ago)

🌍 World News:

Moringa lattes and tigernut kebabs: the young Ghanaians ‘taking back the power’ of th... [Guardian World] (20h ago)
Bodo return to Champions League, Azerbaijan’s Sabah deny Israeli Beer-Sheva [Al Jazeera] (20h ago)
US immigration agents arrested more than 49,500 people in July [Al Jazeera] (20h ago)
Haiti gang raid death toll rises to 47 as more than 50 kidnapped, says UN [Al Jazeera] (20h ago)
Thousands in Japan are pulling this historic castle back into place [Al Jazeera] (20h ago)
Canada Fires Back in Trade War Against Trump With Up to 50% Tariffs [NYT World] (2h ago)
Christian Convert Who Fled Iran and Was Deported By Trump Finds New Home [NYT World] (5h ago)
Canada announces 'dollar-for-dollar' retaliatory tariffs on US as high as 50% [BBC World] (9h ago)

💻 Technology:

A Mutation Is Making It Easier for Drug-Resistant Malaria to Spread [Wired] (20h ago)
Disrupting a new covert influence campaign from Russia [Hacker News] (22h ago)
Ventures Platform goes bigger — and broader — with its second Africa fund [TechCrunch] (22h ago)
More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding [Hacker News] (23h ago)
Harvest (IBM 7950): Supercomputer for cryptanalysis at the NSA in the Cold War [Hacker News] (27m ago)

📊 35 of 38 headlines shown

🎯 CORE ENTITY TRACKER

Key individuals and organizations driving markets today

🇺🇸 US Political:

🔴 Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] — 6 mentions, 4 sources

Even as Trump’s Standing Slips, He Slingshots Darline Graham to Victory

🟡 Scott Bessent [TLT, UUP, GLD] — 2 mentions, 1 source

Stanley Druckenmiller leads doubters who think Bessent's bond ploys will fa...

🌍 Geopolitical:

⚪ Ali Khamenei [USO, XLE, GLD] — 1 mention, 1 source

China hits out at 'illegal' new US sanctions on Iran and trading partners

🏛️ Institutions:

⚪ Federal Reserve [SPY, TLT, GLD, QQQ] — 1 mention, 1 source

US Stocks and Treasuries Slip as Nvidia, PCE Loom: Markets Wrap

Signal strength: 🔴 high (5+ mentions or corroborated) 🟡 medium (2+ mentions) ⚪ low

📅 Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.

🎯 ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)

A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 → buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.

Signal state (as of 2026-08-25 close):

SPY — no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 19 trading days ago)
IWM — no fire (last: 2026-07-20, 26 trading days ago)
VTI — no fire (last: 2026-08-18, 5 trading days ago)
XLY — no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 58 trading days ago)

No active fire — the normal state. Fires average 8-10 per year per ETF.

Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):

SPY — 268 trades since 1993: 65.3% win vs 57.9% above-trend base · +0.58% avg per 5-day trade
IWM — 193 trades since 2000: 62.2% win vs 53.2% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
VTI — 194 trades since 2001: 64.4% win vs 57.6% above-trend base · +0.47% avg per 5-day trade
XLY — 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.0% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade

⚠️ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated — simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was −8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.

📡 Live state, per-timing splits and every caveat via the free API: GET /api/v1/signals/etf-pullback — included with the free key every subscriber already has.

🎯 MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS

📰 Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:

1. Canada Fires Back in Trade War Against Trump With Up to 50% Tariffs

🟢 DFEN, GLD, XLE, VXX

2. China needs U.S. dollars but is building a hedge against Washington’s sanctions

🟢 GLD, VXX

3. Christian Convert Who Fled Iran and Was Deported By Trump Finds New Home

🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN

4. SAP stock slumps as UBS downgrades stock on ‘slow’ move into AI

🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD

5. Iran and Oman prepare Hormuz deal as U.S. holds back on secondary sanctions

🟢 GLD, VXX, XLE, DFEN

6. Amazon service Bezos once called 'artificial artificial intelligence' is shutting dow...

🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL

📊 Ticker Signal Summary:

🟢 Bullish: GLD (Related to) ×5, XLE (Related to) ×4, DFEN (Related to) ×3, VXX (Related to) ×3, NVDA (Related to) ×2, MSFT (Related to) ×2
🔴 Bearish: RSX (Related to) ×1
⚪ Mixed: DJT (Related to) ×3, FXI (Related to) ×1, BABA (Related to) ×1, KWEB (Related to) ×1

🧠 MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES

Sector leadership: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals (3.2%)
Sector weakness: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (-1.9%)

📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - SECRET TIER

All Global Events (Sorted by Impact)

Data Collected: 2026-08-26 05:38:20

💱 All EVENTS:

🟡 Medium IMPACT:

🕐 Day 1 - Jackson Hole Symposium

Forecast: | Previous:

💱 CAD EVENTS:

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 5:30am - Current Account

Forecast: 3.5B | Previous: -7.2B

💱 CHF EVENTS:

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 11:30pm - Retail Sales y/y

Forecast: | Previous:

💱 CNY EVENTS:

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 6:00am - CB Leading Index m/m

Forecast: | Previous: 0.1%

💱 EUR EVENTS:

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 - French Final Private Payrolls q/q

Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -0.1%

🕐 - Private Loans y/y

Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 3.0%

🕐 - French Prelim GDP q/q

Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%

🕐 - French Prelim CPI m/m

Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: 0.6%

🕐 11:00pm - German Import Prices m/m

Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.7%

🕐 11:45pm - French Consumer Spending m/m

Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.4%

🕐 1:00am - M3 Money Supply y/y

Forecast: 3.5% | Previous: 3.3%

🕐 4:30am - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

Forecast: | Previous:

💱 JPY EVENTS:

🟡 Medium IMPACT:

🕐 4:30pm - Tokyo Core CPI y/y

Forecast: 1.8% | Previous: 1.9%

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 - Unemployment Rate

Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.5%

💱 USD EVENTS:

🟡 Medium IMPACT:

🕐 - Unemployment Claims

Forecast: 208K | Previous: 206K

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 - Goods Trade Balance

Forecast: -100.8B | Previous: -101.4B

🕐 - Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m

Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%

🕐 7:30am - Natural Gas Storage

Forecast: 19B | Previous: 16B

📊 DETAILED DATA:

Complete CSV data available in attachment
File: economic_calendar_20260827_053655.csv

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:

All global economic events
Sorted by currency and impact level
Complete CSV data included

📊 PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS

Latest Options Activity: 2026-08-25

Market Sentiment Interpretation:

🐻⚠️ Moderately Bearish - Elevated put activity

Key Ratios:

TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.830

Overall market sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.570

Individual stock sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.970

Index options sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.430

Volatility sentiment - 🐻📉 Very Bearish (VIX Call buying >> VIX Put buying - High volatility expected)

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:

Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
All key market sentiment indicators

03 — MARKET SENTIMENT

Stock Market

Greed

Crypto

Greed

📊 FEAR & GREED INDEX

Data Collected: 2026-08-26 05:38:22

🏛️ Stock Market: 59/100 - GREED 🟡

💡 Optimistic sentiment

₿ Crypto Market: 65/100 - GREED 🟡

💡 Fear & Greed Insights:

Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
Use as contrarian indicator for market timing

🌍 TRENDING TOPICS (4 sources)

What people are searching, watching, and sharing today

🔍 Google Trending Searches:

nvda (10000+ searches) — Nvidia shares set for $280 billion price swing after earning
us military plane moscow landing (5000+ searches) — CIA Director John Ratcliffe Makes Surprise Trip to Moscow
trump approval (2000+ searches) — Trump approval reaches record low in new survey
dj humphries (2000+ searches) — Commanders to sign former Pro Bowl LT D.J. Humphries after L
2k27 (1000+ searches) — NBA 2K27 Is Teasing a GTA 6-Themed Event in Collaboration wi
stoke city vs hull (1000+ searches) — EFL Cup: Hull City beat Stoke City on penalties to book thir
layoff (1000+ searches) — Tech layoffs 2026: More than 175,000 workers laid off as App
lask vs celtic (500+ searches) — LASK vs Celtic (agg 0-3): UEFA Champions League LIVE radio c
daily mail (500+ searches) — Daily Mail accused of stalking woman mistaken as White Strip
amanda batula boyfriend west wilson (500+ searches) — Amanda Batula Shares a Rare Look at Her Life Today and Relat

📖 Wikipedia Most-Viewed:

Shelley Fabares (465,529 page views)
Enes Kanter Freedom (255,439 page views)
Jed York (227,246 page views)
Murder of Sonya Massey (207,116 page views)
Mike Farrell (176,009 page views)
Spider-Man: Brand New Day (168,945 page views)
Hayden Panettiere (158,244 page views)
Lanterns (TV series) (153,412 page views)
Deaths in 2026 (145,264 page views)
The Odyssey (2026 film) (129,495 page views)

🔶 Hacker News Top Stories:

Dolly Parton has died (957 pts, 142 comments)
Apple introduces M6 and M5 Ultra (858 pts, 787 comments)
New Mac Studio with M5 Max and M5 Ultra (659 pts, 402 comments)
Nitter project received cease and desist (422 pts, 297 comments)
New Mac mini, featuring M6 and M5 Pro (388 pts, 216 comments)
My Friend Aaron (360 pts, 90 comments)
Don't Wordle (241 pts, 102 comments)
Bomb fishing is wreaking havoc on Indonesia's coral reefs (231 pts, 126 comments)

▶️ YouTube Viral:

चीन में AI ने छीनी लोगों की नौकरियां [China's battle to work in the age of #AI] — DW हिन्दी (334,914 views)
Viral Shorts: खेत में खुद भुट्टा तोड़कर खाने लगे Kiren Rijiju, Video Viral | #ytshorts #ab — ABP NEWS (239,820 views)
Allah Tala ke madad 😭 #ytshorts #news #prayer#today#trending #emotional#youtubeshorts#shor — Deen Spark (237,401 views)
Iran-US War: अभी-अभी ईरान ने की Netanyahu के बेटे की हत्या... | Mojtaba | Hormuz | Israel — TV9 Bharatvarsh (213,028 views)
Today's Headlines | 25 AUG 2026 |காலை தலைப்புச் செய்திகள்| Morning 6AM Headlines|Tamil — Sathiyam News (147,194 views)
Hoy si se casan 🫢❤️🤣 #naimdarrechi #lablanquita #viral #matrimonio #katycardona — El Salvador Que Memea (132,038 views)

🔬 CAUSAL VALIDATION

Grade distribution across 9 validated models: D:1 | F:8

High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) — predictions have statistically confirmed signal

⚠️ 9 low-validity models (D/F): FFIV, FICO, ICE, IFF, KEY, LUV, ODFL, SWK, WTW

Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.

🏛️ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES

📊 50 trades in last 14 days

🟢 22 Purchases | 🔴 28 Sales

Senate: 9 | House: 41

Most Active Tickers:

🟢 Bought: BE ×4, INTC ×2, GOOGL ×2, IBP ×1, PG ×1
🔴 Sold: ABT ×2, HD ×2, MSFT ×1, T ×1, GOOGL ×1

Recent Notable Trades:

🟢 BE bought by Nancy Pelosi (D-H) — $1,000,001 - $5,000,000
🟢 BE bought by Nancy Pelosi (D-H) — $500,001 - $1,000,000
🟢 BE bought by Nancy Pelosi (D-H) — $500,001 - $1,000,000
🟢 BE bought by Nancy Pelosi (D-H) — $1,000,001 - $5,000,000
🟢 INTC bought by Nancy Pelosi (D-H) — $250,001 - $500,000
🟢 INTC bought by Nancy Pelosi (D-H) — $500,001 - $1,000,000
🔴 MSFT sold by David Taylor (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
🔴 T sold by Tim Moore (R-H) — $50,001 - $100,000

—

Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant

02 — TODAY'S PREDICTIONS

🎯 Ticker Momentum

Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.

#	Ticker	Score	Daily Dir	Daily Conf	Daily AUC	Weekly Dir	Weekly Conf	Weekly AUC	Monthly Dir	Monthly Conf	Monthly AUC	MR Q	Regime	Val	Coverage
1	AOS	100	📉 ↓	58.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
2	FICO	100	📉 ↓	75.1%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
3	HUBB	100	📉 ↓	64.5%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
4	KEY	100	📈 ↑	95.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
5	RCL	100	📉 ↓	58.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
6	WTW	100	📉 ↓	77.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
7	IFF	100	📈 ↑	95.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
8	NKE	100	📉 ↓	86.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
9	ODFL	100	📉 ↓	58.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3

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Lower Confidence Picks (calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)

#	Ticker	Score	Daily Dir	Daily Conf	Daily AUC	Weekly Dir	Weekly Conf	Weekly AUC	Monthly Dir	Monthly Conf	Monthly AUC	MR Q	Regime	Val	Coverage
1	BIO	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
2	MHK	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
3	SWK	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
4	TJX	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
5	TRMB	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
6	ZBRA	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
7	FFIV	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
8	ICE	100	📈 ↑	38.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
9	JNJ	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
10	LUV	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	D	1/3
11	NTAP	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3

📖 Legend

⚡ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%

📈 ↑ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum

📉 ↓ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum

Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting

AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)

Val: Causal validity grade (A–F) — statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal | C = moderate | D = 25% size | F = skipped by trading engine

MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold — potential bounce candidate | Q4 Mildly oversold | Q3 Neutral | Q2 Mildly overbought | Q1 Most overbought — potential fade candidate

Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend Bull / Bear / Neutral

Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)

🟢 Green rows: High confidence (≥60%)

🔴 Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)

Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41% (calibrated confidence reflects this)

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⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

📊 MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values. They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.

💰 FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.

🚫 NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.

🤖 AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.

📈 SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.

📊 DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.

⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.

👤 INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
For questions or concerns, contact: dave@moneysignals.us