MoneySignals Daily Predictions · Top Predictions
2026-08-25 (Tuesday) · secret tier
Tickers
365
With Signals
365
Daily
365
Weekly
0
Monthly
0

Generated: 2026-08-24 05:37:21 EST

01 — MODEL SCORECARD
How Our Picks Did — Friday, Aug 21
7/10 correct — 70% BULLISH calls 70%
Ticker Predicted Conf Actual Result Return
OXY ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -0.36%
TDY ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.35%
MO ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -1.27%
NDAQ ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.69%
SO ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -2.72%
AIG ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.49%
COO ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.08%
DE ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +4.27%
CSX ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +1.22%
TMO ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.27%
04 — NEWS & EVENTS
📰 MARKET-RELEVANT NEWS

💼 Business & Markets:

🏛️ Economy & Fed:

🇺🇸 US News:

🌍 World News:

💻 Technology:

📊 35 of 35 headlines shown
🎯 CORE ENTITY TRACKER

Key individuals and organizations driving markets today

🇺🇸 US Political:
  • 🔴 Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] — 8 mentions, 5 sources
Can Democrats Win Back the Senate? Why Their Chances Are Improving.
  • 🟡 Scott Bessent [TLT, UUP, GLD] — 2 mentions, 2 sources
Morning news brief

🌍 Geopolitical:
  • 🟡 Ali Khamenei [USO, XLE, GLD] — 3 mentions, 3 sources
US threat of ‘economic D-Day’ for Iran tests Trump’s China detente
  • ⚪ Benjamin Netanyahu [XLE, ITA, GLD, USO] — 1 mention, 1 source
E1 settlement: Why Netanyahu, Israel’s right might not mind global outrage

🏛️ Institutions:
  • ⚪ Federal Reserve [SPY, TLT, GLD, QQQ] — 1 mention, 1 source
Is Scott Bessent the Fed chair Donald Trump always wanted?

Signal strength: 🔴 high (5+ mentions or corroborated) 🟡 medium (2+ mentions) ⚪ low
📅 Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.
🎯 ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)

A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 → buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.

Signal state (as of 2026-08-21 close):
  • SPY — no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 17 trading days ago)
  • IWM — no fire (last: 2026-07-20, 24 trading days ago)
  • VTI — open hold window, day 3 of 5 (fired 2026-08-18). Entering mid-window was not part of the validated timing — informational only.
  • XLY — no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 56 trading days ago)

Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):
  • SPY — 268 trades since 1993: 65.3% win vs 57.9% above-trend base · +0.58% avg per 5-day trade
  • IWM — 193 trades since 2000: 62.2% win vs 53.2% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
  • VTI — 193 trades since 2001: 64.8% win vs 57.6% above-trend base · +0.48% avg per 5-day trade
  • XLY — 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.0% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade

⚠️ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated — simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was −8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.

📡 Live state, per-timing splits and every caveat via the free API: GET /api/v1/signals/etf-pullback — included with the free key every subscriber already has.
🎯 MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS

📰 Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:

1. US threat of ‘economic D-Day’ for Iran tests Trump’s China detente
🟢 XLE

2. India Lifts Wheat Export Ban in Boost to War Hit Global Supply
🟢 DFEN, GLD, XLE, VXX

3. Why gold and silver prices have added $5 trillion in value

4. Alibaba shares tumble as investors question whether AI spending splurge is justified
🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD

5. 'They asked too much': Canadian dollar slides as Ottawa and Washington head for all-o...
🟢 DFEN, GLD, XLE, VXX

6. Is Scott Bessent the Fed chair Donald Trump always wanted?

📊 Ticker Signal Summary:
  • 🟢 Bullish: GLD (Related to) ×7, XLE (Related to) ×4, DFEN (Related to) ×3, VXX (Related to) ×2, WEAT (Related to) ×1, NVDA (Related to) ×1
  • 🔴 Bearish: TLT (Related to) ×2
  • ⚪ Mixed: FXI (Related to) ×1, BABA (Related to) ×1, KWEB (Related to) ×1, GDX (Related to) ×1
🧠 MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES

  • Sector leadership: Investment Banking & Brokerage (4.8%)
  • Sector weakness: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation (-1.5%)
📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - SECRET TIER
All Global Events (Sorted by Impact)
Data Collected: 2026-08-24 05:37:17

💱 AUD EVENTS:
🔴 High IMPACT:
🕐 - CPI y/y
Forecast: 3.3% | Previous: 3.8%
🕐 - Trimmed Mean CPI m/m
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
🕐 6:30pm - CPI m/m
Forecast: 0.9% | Previous: -0.1%

🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 - Construction Work Done q/q
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 3.4%
🕐 5:30pm - MI Leading Index m/m
Forecast: | Previous: 0.0%

💱 EUR EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 1:00am - German ifo Business Climate
Forecast: 87.3 | Previous: 86.6
🕐 6:00am - Belgian NBB Business Climate
Forecast: -11.0 | Previous: -11.9

💱 JPY EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 4:50pm - SPPI y/y
Forecast: 3.2% | Previous: 3.2%

💱 USD EVENTS:
🟡 Medium IMPACT:
🕐 7:00am - CB Consumer Confidence
Forecast: 90.3 | Previous: 90.8

🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 - HPI m/m
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
🕐 - New Home Sales
Forecast: 620K | Previous: 628K
🕐 - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
Forecast: 1.9% | Previous: 1.6%
🕐 - Richmond Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 7 | Previous: 5
🕐 1:30pm - API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Forecast: | Previous:
🕐 5:15am - ADP Weekly Employment Change
Forecast: | Previous: 9.5K

📊 DETAILED DATA:
  • Complete CSV data available in attachment
  • File: economic_calendar_20260825_053602.csv

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:
  • All global economic events
  • Sorted by currency and impact level
  • Complete CSV data included
📊 PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS
Latest Options Activity: 2026-08-21

Market Sentiment Interpretation:
🐂✅ Bullish - More call activity than put activity

Key Ratios:
  • TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.720
Overall market sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

  • EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.510
Individual stock sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

  • INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.850
Index options sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

  • CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.210
Volatility sentiment - 🐻📉 Very Bearish (VIX Call buying >> VIX Put buying - High volatility expected)

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:
  • Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
  • All key market sentiment indicators
03 — MARKET SENTIMENT
Stock Market
55
Neutral
Crypto
73
Greed
📊 FEAR & GREED INDEX
Data Collected: 2026-08-24 05:37:19

🏛️ Stock Market: 55/100 - GREED 🟡
💡 Optimistic sentiment

₿ Crypto Market: 73/100 - GREED 🟡

💡 Fear & Greed Insights:
  • Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
  • Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
  • Use as contrarian indicator for market timing
🔬 CAUSAL VALIDATION
Grade distribution across 9 validated models: D:1 | F:8
High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) — predictions have statistically confirmed signal

⚠️ 9 low-validity models (D/F): FFIV, FICO, ICE, IFF, KEY, LUV, MET, SWK, WTW
Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.
🏛️ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES

📊 50 trades in last 14 days
🟢 16 Purchases | 🔴 34 Sales
Senate: 9 | House: 41

Most Active Tickers:
  • 🟢 Bought: GOOGL ×2, IBP ×1, PG ×1, AAPL ×1, AMD ×1
  • 🔴 Sold: MSFT ×2, ABT ×2, HD ×2, T ×1, GOOGL ×1

Recent Notable Trades:
  • 🔴 MSFT sold by David Taylor (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
  • 🔴 T sold by Tim Moore (R-H) — $50,001 - $100,000
  • 🔴 ABT sold by Rick W. Allen (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000

—
Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant
02 — TODAY'S PREDICTIONS

🎯 Ticker Momentum

Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.

# Ticker Score Daily Dir Daily Conf Daily AUC Weekly Dir Weekly Conf Weekly AUC Monthly Dir Monthly Conf Monthly AUC MR Q Regime Val Coverage
1 BIO 100 📉 ↓ 58.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
2 COO 100 📈 ↑ 95.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
3 FICO 100 📉 ↓ 64.5%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
4 HUBB 100 📉 ↓ 64.1%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
5 KEY 100 📉 ↓ 86.4%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
6 NI 100 📉 ↓ 86.4%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
7 WTW 100 📉 ↓ 64.5%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
Want more detail? See all 600+ predictions with live updates.
View Full Dashboard at MoneySignals.us →

Lower Confidence Picks (calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)

# Ticker Score Daily Dir Daily Conf Daily AUC Weekly Dir Weekly Conf Weekly AUC Monthly Dir Monthly Conf Monthly AUC MR Q Regime Val Coverage
1 MET 100 📈 ↑ 43.9%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
2 MHK 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
3 OXY 100 📈 ↑ 43.9%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
4 RCL 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
5 SWK 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
6 TJX 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
7 TRMB 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
8 ZBRA 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
9 FFIV 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
10 ICE 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
11 IFF 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
12 JNJ 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
13 LUV 100 📈 ↑ 54.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — D 1/3

📖 Legend

⚡ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%

📈 ↑ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum

📉 ↓ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum

Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting

AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)

Val: Causal validity grade (A–F) — statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal  |  C = moderate  |  D = 25% size  |  F = skipped by trading engine

MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold — potential bounce candidate  |  Q4 Mildly oversold  |  Q3 Neutral  |  Q2 Mildly overbought  |  Q1 Most overbought — potential fade candidate

Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend   Bull / Bear / Neutral

Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)

🟢 Green rows: High confidence (≥60%)

🔴 Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)

Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41% (calibrated confidence reflects this)

Know someone who'd find this useful?
Share MoneySignals' daily predictions with your network
Subscribe at MoneySignals.us
Free tier available · Premium from $29/mo · API access from $49/mo
Share this link: moneysignals.us
▶️ New on YouTube
The Daily 60-Second Market Recap
A fresh Short every market morning — the day's top signals, the news moving them, and what we're watching, narrated in under a minute.
▶️ Watch & Subscribe
@investwithdave · new Shorts weekday mornings
💡 Sponsored
Meta Council — AI-Powered Decision Intelligence
Run any decision past a council of AI experts before you commit. Meta Council assembles specialized AI agents—finance, strategy, risk, contrarian—to stress-test your ideas from every angle. Think of it as a boardroom you can summon on demand.
Try Meta Council →
Promo Code INVESTOR2026 — exclusive extended trial

🚀 Want programmatic access?

REST API for 600+ ticker predictions, statistical analytics, and real-time signals

Explore moneysignals.us →

MoneySignals.us — Powered by AutoTrader ML System

📺 YouTube: @investwithdave

Terms of Service · Privacy Policy

Basic (Free) · Premium · Professional · API Starter · API Pro

⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

📊 MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values. They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.

💰 FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.

🚫 NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.

🤖 AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.

📈 SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.

📊 DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.

⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.

👤 INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
For questions or concerns, contact: dave@moneysignals.us