Generated: 2026-08-20 05:38:26 EST

01 — MODEL SCORECARD

How Our Picks Did — Wednesday, Aug 19

3/10 correct — 30% BULLISH calls 30%

Ticker	Predicted	Conf	Actual	Result	Return
SO	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+0.13%
COO	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+1.28%
MA	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-0.10%
OKE	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-1.09%
BBWI	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-1.85%
CAH	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-0.06%
FFIV	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-2.79%
IRM	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-3.62%
MSI	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+2.42%
TDY	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-2.46%

🎯 CORE ENTITY TRACKER

Key individuals and organizations driving markets today

🇺🇸 US Political:

🔴 Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] — 8 mentions, 6 sources

Trump vows tougher economic measures on Iran and supporting countries

⚪ Scott Bessent [TLT, UUP, GLD] — 1 mention, 1 source

Bessent’s Plan at Best ‘Circuit Breaker’ for Global Bond Slump

🌍 Geopolitical:

🟡 Kim Jong Un [EWY, ITA, LMT, RTX] — 1 mention, 1 source ✅ LOBBY

North Korea fires a suspected missile toward the sea, Japan says

🏛️ Institutions:

⚪ Federal Reserve [SPY, TLT, GLD, QQQ] — 1 mention, 1 source

Trump bemoans Fed interest rate policy, says U.S. should be paying much les...

Signal strength: 🔴 high (5+ mentions or corroborated) 🟡 medium (2+ mentions) ⚪ low

📅 IMPORTANT EVENTS TOMORROW

===================================

📆 Date: Friday, August 21, 2026

🎯 WITCHING DAYS:

Options Expiration (Third Friday)

💡 TRADING IMPLICATIONS:

Options expiration typically increases volatility
Market makers may be more active
Potential for increased volume and price swings

🎯 ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)

A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 → buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.

Signal state (as of 2026-08-19 close):

SPY — no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 15 trading days ago)
IWM — no fire (last: 2026-07-20, 22 trading days ago)
VTI — open hold window, day 1 of 5 (fired 2026-08-18). Entering mid-window was not part of the validated timing — informational only.
XLY — no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 54 trading days ago)

Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):

SPY — 268 trades since 1993: 65.3% win vs 57.9% above-trend base · +0.58% avg per 5-day trade
IWM — 193 trades since 2000: 62.2% win vs 53.2% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
VTI — 193 trades since 2001: 64.8% win vs 57.7% above-trend base · +0.48% avg per 5-day trade
XLY — 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.0% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade

⚠️ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated — simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was −8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.

📡 Live state, per-timing splits and every caveat via the free API: GET /api/v1/signals/etf-pullback — included with the free key every subscriber already has.

🎯 MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS

📰 Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:

1. Trump’s Order to Cut Military Exercises With South Korea Carries Risks, Experts Say

🟢 DFEN, LMT, RTX · 🔴 DJT

2. Trump vows tougher economic measures on Iran and supporting countries

🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN

3. State-backed Israeli settler violence forces West Bank displacement: HRW

4. Trump threatens 'Economic D-Day' for Iran and ‘tremendous’ consequences for its backe...

🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN

5. Bitcoin, ether surge as Trump urges Congress to pass crypto Clarity Act

🟢 DJT, MSTR, COIN, BITO

6. Binance now lets AI agents trade, but keeping them in check is largely up to users

🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD

📊 Ticker Signal Summary:

🟢 Bullish: DFEN (Related to) ×5, GLD (Related to) ×4, XLE (Related to) ×3, NVDA (Related to) ×2, MSFT (Related to) ×2, GOOGL (Related to) ×2
⚪ Mixed: DJT (Related to) ×5, XLF (Related to) ×2

🧠 MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES

Sector leadership: Biotechnology (25.4%)
Sector weakness: Regional Banks (-3.3%)

📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - SECRET TIER

All Global Events (Sorted by Impact)

Data Collected: 2026-08-20 05:38:23

💱 CAD EVENTS:

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 - Retail Sales m/m

Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 1.0%

🕐 5:30am - Core Retail Sales m/m

Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 1.2%

💱 EUR EVENTS:

🟡 Medium IMPACT:

🕐 - French Flash Services PMI

Forecast: 49.4 | Previous: 49.6

🕐 - German Flash Services PMI

Forecast: 50.1 | Previous: 49.8

🕐 12:15am - French Flash Manufacturing PMI

Forecast: 50.1 | Previous: 49.8

🕐 12:30am - German Flash Manufacturing PMI

Forecast: 52.1 | Previous: 52.2

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 - Flash Services PMI

Forecast: 51.5 | Previous: 51.7

🕐 1:00am - Flash Manufacturing PMI

Forecast: 51.8 | Previous: 51.9

🕐 7:00am - Consumer Confidence

Forecast: -16 | Previous: -16

💱 GBP EVENTS:

🟡 Medium IMPACT:

🕐 - Flash Services PMI

Forecast: 51.8 | Previous: 52.1

🕐 1:30am - Flash Manufacturing PMI

Forecast: 51.6 | Previous: 51.9

💱 USD EVENTS:

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 - Flash Services PMI

Forecast: 54.0 | Previous: 54.6

🕐 6:45am - Flash Manufacturing PMI

Forecast: 53.9 | Previous: 53.9

📊 DETAILED DATA:

Complete CSV data available in attachment
File: economic_calendar_20260821_053442.csv

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:

All global economic events
Sorted by currency and impact level
Complete CSV data included

📊 PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS

Latest Options Activity: 2026-08-19

Market Sentiment Interpretation:

😐⚖️ Neutral - Balanced put/call activity

Key Ratios:

TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.800

Overall market sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.520

Individual stock sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.970

Index options sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.300

Volatility sentiment - 🐻📉 Very Bearish (VIX Call buying >> VIX Put buying - High volatility expected)

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:

Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
All key market sentiment indicators

03 — MARKET SENTIMENT

Stock Market

Greed

Crypto

Greed

📊 FEAR & GREED INDEX

Data Collected: 2026-08-20 05:38:25

🏛️ Stock Market: 57/100 - GREED 🟡

💡 Optimistic sentiment

₿ Crypto Market: 62/100 - GREED 🟡

💡 Fear & Greed Insights:

Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
Use as contrarian indicator for market timing

🌍 TRENDING TOPICS (4 sources)

What people are searching, watching, and sharing today

🔍 Google Trending Searches:

barcelona (10000+ searches) — Barcelona - Al Ahly, en directo: Trofeo Joan Gamper hoy, en
viewing august 2026 lunar eclipse (5000+ searches) — Next Up! A Deep Partial Lunar Eclipse on Aug. 27–28
tommy paul (1000+ searches) — Zverev leads Paul but rain halts up top seed’s charge in Cin
atlético mineiro vs bragantino (1000+ searches) — Como goleada para o Flamengo e corte de Hulk foram divisores
paul skenes (1000+ searches) — Paul Skenes Faces Backlash For Beach Photos With Livvy Dunne
marlins - phillies (1000+ searches) — What channel are the Phillies on tonight? What channel are t
cerro - palmeiras (1000+ searches) — PREVIEW | Cerro Porteño vs Palmeiras: team news, lineups, pr
eye drops recalled (500+ searches) — Nearly 40,000 bottles of eye drops recalled. See the affecte
يلا شوت (500+ searches) — برشلونة يهدد الأهلي بسلاحه القديم حمزة عبدالكريم
fomc (500+ searches) — ＦＲＢ内でインフレ懸念強まる、「多く」が利上げの必要性指摘＝議事要旨

📖 Wikipedia Most-Viewed:

Hayden Panettiere (2,035,913 page views)
Wladimir Klitschko (404,736 page views)
Jansen Panettiere (289,337 page views)
Natalie Harp (282,393 page views)
Google (245,180 page views)
Spider-Man: Brand New Day (212,283 page views)
Awarapan 2 (179,253 page views)
.xxx (173,539 page views)
Jason Arday (168,572 page views)
Frank Beard (musician) (166,212 page views)

🔶 Hacker News Top Stories:

OpenLogi (1421 pts, 383 comments)
A joke domain purchase turned in geopolitical warfare (665 pts, 94 comments)
Devices with GrapheneOS support should be available in 2027 (508 pts, 318 comments)
OpenRouter is joining Stripe (460 pts, 258 comments)
Moderna reports first positive Phase 3 for mRNA neoantigen therapy in melanoma (391 pts, 169 comments)
Geolocating a random island using geometry and CUDA programming (374 pts, 67 comments)
Go 1.27 (329 pts, 63 comments)
Remote workers report the highest well-being in study of 7,700 employees (276 pts, 124 comments)

▶️ YouTube Viral:

Allah ki madad #trending #viral #prayer #today #youtubeshorts #shorts #viral #sad — Afifa ful deen (1,169,290 views)
Rimjhim new bts upcoming scene 🤣 #viral #love #today #video #ytshorts #funny #viralshort — The YT surru (431,479 views)
बहीण #marathisong #ajitpawar #rohitpawar #sharadpawar #viralvideo #trending #shorts #marat — Garja Maharashtra (218,637 views)
Today's Headlines | 19 AUG 2026 |காலை தலைப்புச் செய்திகள்| Morning 6AM Headlines|Tamil — Sathiyam News (129,427 views)
এটিএন বাংলার সকাল ৭ টার সংবাদ । ১৯.০৮.২০২৬ | Today News | Ajker News | BD News | ATN Bangl — ATN Bangla News (128,048 views)
Allah Tala ke madad 😭 #ytshorts #news #prayer#today#trending #emotional#youtubeshorts#shor — Deen Spark (119,108 views)

🔬 CAUSAL VALIDATION

Grade distribution across 12 validated models: D:1 | F:11

High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) — predictions have statistically confirmed signal

⚠️ 12 low-validity models (D/F): FFIV, ICE, IFF, KEY, KEYS, LUV, MET, ODFL, SWK, SWKS, WFC, WTW

Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.

🏛️ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES

📊 50 trades in last 14 days

🟢 12 Purchases | 🔴 36 Sales

Senate: 9 | House: 41

Most Active Tickers:

🟢 Bought: AAPL ×1, AMD ×1, AMZN ×1, AVGO ×1, EQT ×1
🔴 Sold: ABT ×2, HD ×2, AAPL ×2, GOOGL ×1, SYK ×1

Recent Notable Trades:

🔴 ABT sold by Rick W. Allen (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
🔴 AAPL sold by Shri Thanedar (D-H) — $100,001 - $250,000

—

Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant

02 — TODAY'S PREDICTIONS

🎯 Ticker Momentum

Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.

#	Ticker	Score	Daily Dir	Daily Conf	Daily AUC	Weekly Dir	Weekly Conf	Weekly AUC	Monthly Dir	Monthly Conf	Monthly AUC	MR Q	Regime	Val	Coverage
1	BIO	100	📉 ↓	58.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
2	HUBB	100	📉 ↓	58.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
3	KEY	100	📉 ↓	86.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
4	MET	100	📉 ↓	75.1%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
5	FFIV	100	📉 ↓	75.1%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
6	NKE	100	📈 ↑	95.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
7	ODFL	100	📉 ↓	58.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
8	WFC	100	📉 ↓	64.5%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3

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Lower Confidence Picks (calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)

#	Ticker	Score	Daily Dir	Daily Conf	Daily AUC	Weekly Dir	Weekly Conf	Weekly AUC	Monthly Dir	Monthly Conf	Monthly AUC	MR Q	Regime	Val	Coverage
1	COO	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
2	KEYS	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
3	MHK	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
4	OXY	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
5	SWK	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
6	WTW	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
7	ICE	100	📈 ↑	38.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
8	IFF	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
9	JNJ	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
10	LUV	100	📈 ↑	38.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	D	1/3
11	PAYC	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
12	SWKS	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3

📖 Legend

⚡ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%

📈 ↑ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum

📉 ↓ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum

Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting

AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)

Val: Causal validity grade (A–F) — statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal | C = moderate | D = 25% size | F = skipped by trading engine

MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold — potential bounce candidate | Q4 Mildly oversold | Q3 Neutral | Q2 Mildly overbought | Q1 Most overbought — potential fade candidate

Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend Bull / Bear / Neutral

Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)

🟢 Green rows: High confidence (≥60%)

🔴 Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)

Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41% (calibrated confidence reflects this)

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⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

📊 MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values. They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.

💰 FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.

🚫 NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.

🤖 AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.

📈 SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.

📊 DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.

⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.

👤 INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
For questions or concerns, contact: dave@moneysignals.us