MoneySignals Daily Predictions · Top Predictions
2026-08-19 (Wednesday) · secret tier
Tickers
350
With Signals
350
Daily
350
Weekly
0
Monthly
0

Generated: 2026-08-18 05:37:08 EST

01 — MODEL SCORECARD
How Our Picks Did — Monday, Aug 17
3/10 correct — 30% BULLISH calls 30%
Ticker Predicted Conf Actual Result Return
DVA ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -1.87%
DVN ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +3.75%
DOC ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -1.01%
CNC ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -4.54%
DIS ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -3.14%
COO ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -1.40%
CSX ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.84%
BEN ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.97%
CI ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -2.56%
FITB ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -0.79%
04 — NEWS & EVENTS
📰 MARKET-RELEVANT NEWS

💼 Business & Markets:

🏛️ Economy & Fed:

🇺🇸 US News:

🌍 World News:

💻 Technology:

📊 30 of 33 headlines shown
🎯 CORE ENTITY TRACKER

Key individuals and organizations driving markets today

🇺🇸 US Political:
  • 🔴 Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] — 9 mentions, 6 sources
This crowded Republican primary in Florida has drawn a unique cast of candi...

🌍 Geopolitical:
  • 🟡 Kim Jong Un [EWY, ITA, LMT, RTX] — 2 mentions, 2 sources ✅ LOBBY
Watch: Why has Trump shifted on North Korea?
  • ⚪ Xi Jinping [FXI, KWEB, BABA, EEM] — 1 mention, 1 source
China censors public mourning as it holds former premier's funeral

Signal strength: 🔴 high (5+ mentions or corroborated) 🟡 medium (2+ mentions) ⚪ low
📅 Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.
🎯 ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)

A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 → buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.

Signal state (as of 2026-08-17 close):
  • SPY — no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 13 trading days ago)
  • IWM — no fire (last: 2026-07-20, 20 trading days ago)
  • VTI — no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 13 trading days ago)
  • XLY — no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 52 trading days ago)
No active fire — the normal state. Fires average 8-10 per year per ETF.

Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):
  • SPY — 268 trades since 1993: 65.3% win vs 58.0% above-trend base · +0.58% avg per 5-day trade
  • IWM — 193 trades since 2000: 62.2% win vs 53.3% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
  • VTI — 193 trades since 2001: 64.8% win vs 57.7% above-trend base · +0.48% avg per 5-day trade
  • XLY — 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.0% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade

⚠️ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated — simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was −8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.

📡 Live state, per-timing splits and every caveat via the free API: GET /api/v1/signals/etf-pullback — included with the free key every subscriber already has.
🎯 MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS

📰 Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:

1. Russia warns UK will pay for supplying drones to Ukraine
🟢 GLD, XLE, DFEN · 🔴 RSX

2. She told no one about her agony except ChatGPT. What her death reveals about AI risks
🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD

3. At Ex-Premier Zhu Rongji’s Funeral, China’s Past Shadows Its Present

4. A Mother’s Quest to Rescue Her Son From Russian-Occupied Ukraine
🟢 DFEN, XLE, WEAT

5. US states call for big changes to Instagram and Facebook as Meta child privacy trial ...

6. Trump lashes out at CNN reporter over South Korea question

📊 Ticker Signal Summary:
  • 🟢 Bullish: XLE (Related to) ×2, DFEN (Related to) ×2, WEAT (Related to) ×2, GLD (Related to) ×1, NVDA (Related to) ×1, MSFT (Related to) ×1
  • 🔴 Bearish: RSX (Related to) ×1
  • ⚪ Mixed: DJT (Related to) ×3, AAPL (Related to) ×2, FXI (Related to) ×1, BABA (Related to) ×1
🧠 MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES

  • Sector leadership: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment (4.0%)
  • Sector weakness: Real Estate Services (-3.2%)
📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - SECRET TIER
All Global Events (Sorted by Impact)
Data Collected: 2026-08-18 05:37:04

💱 AUD EVENTS:
🔴 High IMPACT:
🕐 - Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.4% | Previous: 4.4%
🕐 6:30pm - Employment Change
Forecast: 11.7K | Previous: 76.3K

🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 6:00pm - MI Inflation Expectations
Forecast: | Previous: 4.7%

💱 CNY EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 - 5-y Loan Prime Rate
Forecast: 3.50% | Previous: 3.50%
🕐 - 1-y Loan Prime Rate
Forecast: 3.00% | Previous: 3.00%

💱 EUR EVENTS:
🟡 Medium IMPACT:
🕐 12:10am - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Forecast: | Previous:

🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 - Final CPI y/y
Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 2.9%
🕐 11:00pm - German PPI m/m
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: -0.3%
🕐 1:00am - Current Account
Forecast: 26.8B | Previous: 25.1B
🕐 2:00am - Final Core CPI y/y
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.5%
🕐 Tentative - German 10-y Bond Auction
Forecast: | Previous: 3.13|1.1

💱 GBP EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 1:30am - HPI y/y
Forecast: 1.9% | Previous: 2.7%

💱 JPY EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 4:50pm - Trade Balance
Forecast: -0.44T | Previous: -0.88T

💱 USD EVENTS:
🔴 High IMPACT:
🕐 11:00am - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Forecast: | Previous:

🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 7:30am - Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: | Previous: 17.4M

📊 DETAILED DATA:
  • Complete CSV data available in attachment
  • File: economic_calendar_20260819_053537.csv

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:
  • All global economic events
  • Sorted by currency and impact level
  • Complete CSV data included
📊 PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS
Latest Options Activity: 2026-08-17

Market Sentiment Interpretation:
🐻⚠️ Moderately Bearish - Elevated put activity

Key Ratios:
  • TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.920
Overall market sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

  • EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.650
Individual stock sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

  • INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.030
Index options sentiment - 🐻📉 Bearish (Put buying > Call buying - Downside protection)

  • CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.420
Volatility sentiment - 🐻📉 Very Bearish (VIX Call buying >> VIX Put buying - High volatility expected)

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:
  • Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
  • All key market sentiment indicators
03 — MARKET SENTIMENT
Stock Market
59
Greed
Crypto
41
Fear
📊 FEAR & GREED INDEX
Data Collected: 2026-08-18 05:37:06

🏛️ Stock Market: 59/100 - GREED 🟡
💡 Optimistic sentiment

₿ Crypto Market: 41/100 - FEAR 🟡

💡 Fear & Greed Insights:
  • Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
  • Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
  • Use as contrarian indicator for market timing
🌍 TRENDING TOPICS (4 sources)

What people are searching, watching, and sharing today

🔍 Google Trending Searches:
  • donald trump nathaniel rai meeting (10000+ searches) — Trump meets teen lifeguard and boy saved in viral ocean resc
  • doj white house ballroom construction (5000+ searches) — Trump says White House needs ‘military complex’ as courts bl
  • orioles vs rays (5000+ searches) — Orioles take sole possession of 3rd Wild Card with 3rd strai
  • deportivo vs elche (2000+ searches) — Deportivo - Elche en directo | Última hora de LaLiga EA Spor
  • cardiff city vs wrexham (2000+ searches) — Cardiff City vs Wrexham: Championship stats & head-to-head
  • justin trudeau (1000+ searches) — Yes, that really is Justin Trudeau and Katy Perry dancing in
  • house of the dragon showrunner (1000+ searches) — 'House of the Dragon' Showrunner on the Season 3 Ending, Ser
  • casa pia vs benfica standings (500+ searches) — Casa Pia vs. Benfica Lineups, Live Streaming, How & Where to
  • centennial mills portland (500+ searches) — Watch live: Centennial Mills water tower to be brought down
  • kristen holmes (500+ searches) — Trump tells CNN reporter to 'be quiet' during Oval Office cl

📖 Wikipedia Most-Viewed:
  • Jason Arday (355,195 page views)
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day (325,876 page views)
  • UFC 330 (297,615 page views)
  • Awarapan 2 (278,989 page views)
  • Ejaculation (226,563 page views)
  • Erection (217,785 page views)
  • Islam Makhachev (197,603 page views)
  • The Odyssey (2026 film) (197,541 page views)
  • .xyz (171,392 page views)
  • Ian Machado Garry (158,553 page views)

🔶 Hacker News Top Stories:
  • A Preview of DuckDB v2.0 (480 pts, 83 comments)
  • Incident with Github.com (456 pts, 833 comments)
  • Ask HN: Alternatives to GitHub (440 pts, 283 comments)
  • AI;DR (AI; Didn't Read) (381 pts, 234 comments)
  • AI-Generated GitHub Copilot “Autofix” Allowed Compromise of Snowflake's Jira (281 pts, 117 comments)
  • GPT 5.6 Sol is the best "vision" model OpenAI ever released (279 pts, 146 comments)
  • Olo (Color) (240 pts, 59 comments)
  • How to disable or avoid intrusive AI (213 pts, 114 comments)

▶️ YouTube Viral:
  • Yash looked rimjhim #sameer #rimjhim #shorts #viral #video #love #today — The YT surru (603,492 views)
  • Yash new bts rimjhim sameer #viral #video #today #viral #funny v #viralvideos #sameer #rim — The YT surru (564,526 views)
  • BREAKING: Trump tells Pentagon to pull back joint South Korea military exercises — LiveNOW from FOX (473,511 views)
  • 🙏Today News Mohali Bhana Sidhu Support Public #news #latestnews #trending #shorts #viral # — Paramveer Aujla (317,193 views)
  • Allah Tala ke madad 😭 #ytshorts #news #prayer#today#trending #emotional#youtubeshorts#shor — Deen Spark (292,475 views)
  • Allah ki madad #trending #viral #prayer #today #youtubeshorts #shorts #viral #sad — Afifa ful deen (242,091 views)

🔬 CAUSAL VALIDATION
Grade distribution across 11 validated models: D:1 | F:10
High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) — predictions have statistically confirmed signal

⚠️ 11 low-validity models (D/F): BAC, FFIV, ICE, IFF, KEY, KEYS, LUV, MET, ODFL, SWK, WTW
Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.
🏛️ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES

📊 50 trades in last 14 days
🟢 6 Purchases | 🔴 42 Sales
Senate: 9 | House: 41

Most Active Tickers:
  • 🟢 Bought: APTV ×1, CVX ×1, EL ×1, PYPL ×1, SPYM ×1
  • 🔴 Sold: BLK ×3, HD ×2, AAPL ×2, ABT ×2, PEP ×2

Recent Notable Trades:
  • 🔴 AAPL sold by Shri Thanedar (D-H) — $100,001 - $250,000
  • 🔴 MSTR sold by Shri Thanedar (D-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
  • 🔴 PEP sold by Mike Kelly (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000

—
Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant
02 — TODAY'S PREDICTIONS

🎯 Ticker Momentum

Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.

# Ticker Score Daily Dir Daily Conf Daily AUC Weekly Dir Weekly Conf Weekly AUC Monthly Dir Monthly Conf Monthly AUC MR Q Regime Val Coverage
1 BIO 100 📉 ↓ 58.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
2 KEY 100 📈 ↑ 95.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
3 MET 100 📉 ↓ 58.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
4 MHK 100 📉 ↓ 58.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
5 BAC 100 📉 ↓ 58.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
6 FFIV 100 📉 ↓ 64.5%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
7 IFF 100 📉 ↓ 84.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
8 NKE 100 📉 ↓ 58.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
Want more detail? See all 600+ predictions with live updates.
View Full Dashboard at MoneySignals.us →

Lower Confidence Picks (calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)

# Ticker Score Daily Dir Daily Conf Daily AUC Weekly Dir Weekly Conf Weekly AUC Monthly Dir Monthly Conf Monthly AUC MR Q Regime Val Coverage
1 COO 100 📈 ↑ 45.4%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
2 HUBB 100 📉 ↓ 48.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
3 KEYS 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
4 MTCH 100 📉 ↓ 48.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
5 OXY 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
6 SWK 100 📉 ↓ 48.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
7 WTW 100 📈 ↑ 38.4%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
8 ICE 100 📈 ↑ 38.4%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
9 JNJ 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
10 LUV 100 📈 ↑ 54.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — D 1/3
11 ODFL 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
12 PAYC 100 📉 ↓ 48.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3

📖 Legend

⚡ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%

📈 ↑ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum

📉 ↓ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum

Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting

AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)

Val: Causal validity grade (A–F) — statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal  |  C = moderate  |  D = 25% size  |  F = skipped by trading engine

MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold — potential bounce candidate  |  Q4 Mildly oversold  |  Q3 Neutral  |  Q2 Mildly overbought  |  Q1 Most overbought — potential fade candidate

Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend   Bull / Bear / Neutral

Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)

🟢 Green rows: High confidence (≥60%)

🔴 Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)

Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41% (calibrated confidence reflects this)

Know someone who'd find this useful?
Share MoneySignals' daily predictions with your network
Subscribe at MoneySignals.us
Free tier available · Premium from $29/mo · API access from $49/mo
Share this link: moneysignals.us
▶️ New on YouTube
The Daily 60-Second Market Recap
A fresh Short every market morning — the day's top signals, the news moving them, and what we're watching, narrated in under a minute.
▶️ Watch & Subscribe
@investwithdave · new Shorts weekday mornings
💡 Sponsored
Meta Council — AI-Powered Decision Intelligence
Run any decision past a council of AI experts before you commit. Meta Council assembles specialized AI agents—finance, strategy, risk, contrarian—to stress-test your ideas from every angle. Think of it as a boardroom you can summon on demand.
Try Meta Council →
Promo Code INVESTOR2026 — exclusive extended trial

🚀 Want programmatic access?

REST API for 600+ ticker predictions, statistical analytics, and real-time signals

Explore moneysignals.us →

MoneySignals.us — Powered by AutoTrader ML System

📺 YouTube: @investwithdave

Terms of Service · Privacy Policy

Basic (Free) · Premium · Professional · API Starter · API Pro

⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

📊 MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values. They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.

💰 FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.

🚫 NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.

🤖 AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.

📈 SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.

📊 DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.

⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.

👤 INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
For questions or concerns, contact: dave@moneysignals.us