MoneySignals Daily Predictions · Top Predictions
2026-08-18 (Tuesday) · secret tier
Tickers
346
With Signals
346
Daily
346
Weekly
0
Monthly
0

Generated: 2026-08-17 05:36:48 EST

01 — MODEL SCORECARD
How Our Picks Did — Friday, Aug 14
6/10 correct — 60% BULLISH calls 60%
Ticker Predicted Conf Actual Result Return
IRM ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +2.22%
HBAN ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.79%
FFIV ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -3.08%
HD ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -0.83%
ADM ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.37%
AMT ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.80%
BXP ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -1.06%
CHTR ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -1.44%
CI ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +1.64%
KEY ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +1.39%
04 — NEWS & EVENTS
📰 MARKET-RELEVANT NEWS

💼 Business & Markets:

🇺🇸 US News:

🌍 World News:

💻 Technology:

📊 32 of 32 headlines shown
🎯 CORE ENTITY TRACKER

Key individuals and organizations driving markets today

🇺🇸 US Political:
  • 🔴 Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] — 7 mentions, 4 sources
Who Is the New White House Counsel?
  • 🟡 Elon Musk [TSLA, TWTR, SPY] — 2 mentions, 2 sources
Elon Musk's Starbase wants to expand in south Texas

🌍 Geopolitical:
  • 🔴 Kim Jong Un [EWY, ITA, LMT, RTX] — 3 mentions, 3 sources ✅ LOBBY
Trump says US to reduce military drills with South Korea after it stayed ou...
  • 🟡 Benjamin Netanyahu [XLE, ITA, GLD, USO] — 2 mentions, 2 sources
Trump envoy Kushner arrives in Israel after rare Hamas talks on Gaza peace ...
  • ⚪ Ali Khamenei [USO, XLE, GLD] — 1 mention, 1 source
Iran’s Supreme Leader Signals Intention to Keep Country on a War Footing
  • ⚪ Xi Jinping [FXI, KWEB, BABA, EEM] — 1 mention, 1 source
China's Xi Touts Military, Economic Agenda at Key Event

🏢 Corporate Leaders:
  • 🟡 Mark Zuckerberg [META] — 1 mention, 1 source ✅ LOBBY
Why people aren’t buying Mark Zuckerberg’s AI future

🏛️ Institutions:
  • 🟡 Federal Reserve [SPY, TLT, GLD, QQQ] — 2 mentions, 2 sources
Dollar Extends Slide as Traders Scale Back Fed Tightening Bets

Signal strength: 🔴 high (5+ mentions or corroborated) 🟡 medium (2+ mentions) ⚪ low
📅 Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.
🎯 ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)

A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 → buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.

Signal state (as of 2026-08-14 close):
  • SPY — no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 12 trading days ago)
  • IWM — no fire (last: 2026-07-20, 19 trading days ago)
  • VTI — no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 12 trading days ago)
  • XLY — no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 51 trading days ago)
No active fire — the normal state. Fires average 8-10 per year per ETF.

Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):
  • SPY — 268 trades since 1993: 65.3% win vs 58.0% above-trend base · +0.58% avg per 5-day trade
  • IWM — 193 trades since 2000: 62.2% win vs 53.3% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
  • VTI — 193 trades since 2001: 64.8% win vs 57.7% above-trend base · +0.48% avg per 5-day trade
  • XLY — 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.0% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade

⚠️ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated — simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was −8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.

📡 Live state, per-timing splits and every caveat via the free API: GET /api/v1/signals/etf-pullback — included with the free key every subscriber already has.
🎯 MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS

📰 Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:

1. How Ukraine’s Satellites Help Drive Its War Drones
🟢 DFEN, GLD, XLE, VXX

2. Investor dubbed ‘AI stock god’ had 56% of his funds in these two stocks before it ble...
🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD

3. Dollar falls to lowest since early June as rate hike bets fade
🟢 XLF · 🔴 TLT, QQQ, GLD

4. HackEurope 2026: A short rant on AI and hackathons
🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD

5. Ukrainian strikes kill six in Russia, acting governor says
🟢 GLD, XLE · 🔴 RSX

6. Dollar Extends Slide as Traders Scale Back Fed Tightening Bets

📊 Ticker Signal Summary:
  • 🟢 Bullish: GLD (Related to) ×5, XLE (Related to) ×3, DFEN (Related to) ×2, NVDA (Related to) ×2, MSFT (Related to) ×2, GOOGL (Related to) ×2
  • 🔴 Bearish: TLT (Related to) ×2, QQQ (Related to) ×1, RSX (Related to) ×1
  • ⚪ Mixed: XLV (Related to) ×1, IBB (Related to) ×1
🧠 MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES

  • Sector leadership: Broadcasting (4.0%)
  • Sector weakness: Advertising (-1.9%)
📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - SECRET TIER
All Global Events (Sorted by Impact)
Data Collected: 2026-08-17 05:36:45

💱 AUD EVENTS:
🟡 Medium IMPACT:
🕐 6:30pm - Wage Price Index q/q
Forecast: 0.8% | Previous: 0.8%

🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 7:45pm - RBA Deputy Gov Hauser Speaks
Forecast: | Previous:

💱 CAD EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 5:15am - Housing Starts
Forecast: 249K | Previous: 239K

💱 EUR EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 - ZEW Economic Sentiment
Forecast: 25.4 | Previous: 23.4
🕐 2:00am - German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Forecast: 30.0 | Previous: 26.3

💱 GBP EVENTS:
🔴 High IMPACT:
🕐 11:00pm - CPI y/y
Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 2.6%

🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 - Core CPI y/y
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.6%
🕐 - PPI Input m/m
Forecast: -0.5% | Previous: -2.0%
🕐 - PPI Output m/m
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.0%
🕐 - RPI y/y
Forecast: 3.3% | Previous: 3.0%
🕐 Tentative - 10-y Bond Auction
Forecast: | Previous: 5.04|3.1

💱 JPY EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 4:50pm - Core Machinery Orders m/m
Forecast: 7.6% | Previous: -12.4%

💱 NZD EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 - PPI Output q/q
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.8%
🕐 3:45pm - PPI Input q/q
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 1.4%
🕐 Tentative - GDT Price Index
Forecast: | Previous: 0.1%

💱 USD EVENTS:
🟢 Low IMPACT:
🕐 - Industrial Production m/m
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.1%
🕐 - Import Prices m/m
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.3%
🕐 - ADP Weekly Employment Change
Forecast: | Previous: 8.3K
🕐 - Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.35M | Previous: 1.43M
🕐 1:30pm - API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Forecast: | Previous:
🕐 5:30am - Building Permits
Forecast: 1.37M | Previous: 1.37M
🕐 6:15am - Capacity Utilization Rate
Forecast: 76.3% | Previous: 76.1%
🕐 7:00am - Pending Home Sales m/m
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -5.4%

📊 DETAILED DATA:
  • Complete CSV data available in attachment
  • File: economic_calendar_20260818_053616.csv

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:
  • All global economic events
  • Sorted by currency and impact level
  • Complete CSV data included
📊 PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS
Latest Options Activity: 2026-08-13

Market Sentiment Interpretation:
🐂✅ Bullish - More call activity than put activity

Key Ratios:
  • TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.790
Overall market sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

  • EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.590
Individual stock sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

  • INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.930
Index options sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

  • CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.610
Volatility sentiment - 🐻⚠️ Bearish (VIX Call buying > VIX Put buying - Volatility expected)

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:
  • Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
  • All key market sentiment indicators
03 — MARKET SENTIMENT
Stock Market
64
Greed
Crypto
31
Fear
📊 FEAR & GREED INDEX
Data Collected: 2026-08-17 05:36:47

🏛️ Stock Market: 64/100 - GREED 🟡
💡 Optimistic sentiment

₿ Crypto Market: 31/100 - FEAR 🟡

💡 Fear & Greed Insights:
  • Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
  • Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
  • Use as contrarian indicator for market timing
🔬 CAUSAL VALIDATION
Grade distribution across 9 validated models: F:9
High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) — predictions have statistically confirmed signal

⚠️ 9 low-validity models (D/F): BAC, FFIV, ICE, KEY, MET, ODFL, SWK, SWKS, WTW
Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.
🏛️ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES

📊 50 trades in last 14 days
🟢 16 Purchases | 🔴 34 Sales
Senate: 1 | House: 49

Most Active Tickers:
  • 🟢 Bought: GOOGN ×2, AMAT ×1, CRWD ×1, GOOGM ×1, MNST ×1
  • 🔴 Sold: AAPL ×3, BLK ×2, IBM ×2, ACI ×2, AMZN ×2

Recent Notable Trades:
  • 🔴 AAPL sold by Shri Thanedar (D-H) — $100,001 - $250,000
  • 🔴 MSTR sold by Shri Thanedar (D-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
  • 🔴 PEP sold by Mike Kelly (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
  • 🟢 ABVX bought by Ro Khanna (D-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
  • 🔴 ACI sold by Ro Khanna (D-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
  • 🔴 ADSK sold by Ro Khanna (D-H) — $15,001 - $50,000

—
Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant
02 — TODAY'S PREDICTIONS

🎯 Ticker Momentum

Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.

# Ticker Score Daily Dir Daily Conf Daily AUC Weekly Dir Weekly Conf Weekly AUC Monthly Dir Monthly Conf Monthly AUC MR Q Regime Val Coverage
1 BIO 100 📉 ↓ 64.5%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
2 COO 100 📈 ↑ 95.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
3 KEY 100 📈 ↑ 95.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
4 OXY 100 📉 ↓ 75.1%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
5 TXT 100 📉 ↓ 64.1%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
6 FFIV 100 📉 ↓ 67.4%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
7 NKE 100 📈 ↑ 95.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
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Lower Confidence Picks (calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)

# Ticker Score Daily Dir Daily Conf Daily AUC Weekly Dir Weekly Conf Weekly AUC Monthly Dir Monthly Conf Monthly AUC MR Q Regime Val Coverage
1 HUBB 100 📉 ↓ 48.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
2 MET 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
3 MHK 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
4 MTCH 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
5 SWK 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
6 WTW 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
7 BAC 100 📉 ↓ 48.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
8 ICE 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
9 JNJ 100 📉 ↓ 48.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
10 ODFL 100 📉 ↓ 48.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3
11 PAYC 100 📉 ↓ 48.3%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
12 PNW 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — N/A 1/3
13 SWKS 100 📈 ↑ 33.7%
 — — 0.0%
 — — 0.0%
 — — — F 1/3

📖 Legend

⚡ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%

📈 ↑ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum

📉 ↓ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum

Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting

AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)

Val: Causal validity grade (A–F) — statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal  |  C = moderate  |  D = 25% size  |  F = skipped by trading engine

MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold — potential bounce candidate  |  Q4 Mildly oversold  |  Q3 Neutral  |  Q2 Mildly overbought  |  Q1 Most overbought — potential fade candidate

Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend   Bull / Bear / Neutral

Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)

🟢 Green rows: High confidence (≥60%)

🔴 Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)

Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41% (calibrated confidence reflects this)

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⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

📊 MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values. They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.

💰 FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.

🚫 NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.

🤖 AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.

📈 SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.

📊 DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.

⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.

👤 INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
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