Generated: 2026-08-14 05:37:04 EST
01 β MODEL SCORECARD
How Our Picks Did — Thursday, Aug 13
6/10 correct — 60%
BULLISH calls 60%
| Ticker |
Predicted |
Conf |
Actual |
Result |
Return |
| EXPD |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+1.40% |
| HAS |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+1.91% |
| COO |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-0.17% |
| AKAM |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+2.04% |
| BBY |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+2.83% |
| FFIV |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-1.64% |
| ACN |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-0.92% |
| APA |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+0.08% |
| ADBE |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+4.54% |
| HD |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-0.50% |
04 β NEWS & EVENTS
π° MARKET-RELEVANT NEWS
πΌ Business & Markets:
ποΈ Economy & Fed:
πΊπΈ US News:
π World News:
π» Technology:
π 39 of 40 headlines shown
π― CORE ENTITY TRACKER
Key individuals and organizations driving markets today
πΊπΈ US Political:
- π΄ Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] β 9 mentions, 7 sources
Trumpβs Justice Dept. Targets Smaller Fraud Cases
- π‘ RFK Jr. [PFE, JNJ, MRK, ABBV] β 1 mention, 1 source β
LOBBY
Kennedy Center board votes to put Trump's name back on building
- βͺ Scott Bessent [TLT, UUP, GLD] β 1 mention, 1 source
U.S. to use economic tactics on Iran 'that have never been seen'; Navy work...
- βͺ Elon Musk [TSLA, TWTR, SPY] β 1 mention, 1 source
Help build a monument to that βsad little bitchβ Elon Musk
π Geopolitical:
- βͺ Vladimir Putin [USO, XLE, WEAT, RSX] β 1 mention, 1 source
βAbsolutely unacceptableβ: Japan PM Takaichi condemns Putinβs visit to disp...
ποΈ Institutions:
- π‘ Federal Reserve [SPY, TLT, GLD, QQQ] β 2 mentions, 2 sources
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of Reg...
Signal strength: π΄ high (5+ mentions or corroborated) π‘ medium (2+ mentions) βͺ low
π
Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.
π― ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)
A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 β buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.
Signal state (as of 2026-08-13 close):
- SPY β no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 11 trading days ago)
- IWM β no fire (last: 2026-07-20, 18 trading days ago)
- VTI β no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 11 trading days ago)
- XLY β no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 50 trading days ago)
No active fire β the normal state. Fires average 8-10 per year per ETF.
Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):
- SPY β 268 trades since 1993: 65.3% win vs 58.0% above-trend base Β· +0.58% avg per 5-day trade
- IWM β 193 trades since 2000: 62.2% win vs 53.2% above-trend base Β· +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
- VTI β 193 trades since 2001: 64.8% win vs 57.7% above-trend base Β· +0.48% avg per 5-day trade
- XLY β 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.1% above-trend base Β· +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
β οΈ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated β simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was β8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.
π‘ Live state, per-timing splits and every caveat via the free API:
GET /api/v1/signals/etf-pullback β included with the free key every subscriber already has.
π― MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS
π° Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:
π’ NVDA
π’ NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD
π’ DFEN, GLD, XLE, VXX
π Ticker Signal Summary:
- π’ Bullish: NVDA (Related to) Γ3, GLD (Related to) Γ3, MSFT (Related to) Γ2, AMD (Related to) Γ2, DFEN (Related to) Γ2, XLE (Related to) Γ2
- βͺ Mixed: FXI (Related to) Γ4, BABA (Related to) Γ4, KWEB (Related to) Γ4, DJT (Related to) Γ2
π§ MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES
- Sector leadership: Real Estate Services (5.7%)
- Sector weakness: Other Specialty Retail (-1.9%)
π Economic Calendar
No economic events scheduled. Market may be closed or holiday.
π PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS
Latest Options Activity: 2026-08-13
Market Sentiment Interpretation:
πβ
Bullish - More call activity than put activity
Key Ratios:
- TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.790
Overall market sentiment - πβ
Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.590
Individual stock sentiment - πβ
Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.930
Index options sentiment - πβ
Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.610
Volatility sentiment - π»β οΈ Bearish (VIX Call buying > VIX Put buying - Volatility expected)
π‘ SECRET TIER ACCESS:
- Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
- All key market sentiment indicators
03 β MARKET SENTIMENT
π FEAR & GREED INDEX
Data Collected: 2026-08-14 05:37:03
ποΈ Stock Market: 66/100 - GREED π‘
π‘ Optimistic sentiment
βΏ Crypto Market: 29/100 - FEAR π‘
π‘ Fear & Greed Insights:
- Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
- Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
- Use as contrarian indicator for market timing
π Reddit Trending Tickers:
- HTZ: 683 mentions, 1,747 engagement
- SPY: 449 mentions, 1,325 engagement
- SNDK: 255 mentions, 805 engagement
- NBIS: 233 mentions, 543 engagement
- MU: 212 mentions, 575 engagement
- ONDS: 199 mentions, 638 engagement
- AMAT: 127 mentions, 278 engagement
- SPCX: 123 mentions, 286 engagement
- QQQ: 113 mentions, 201 engagement
- NVDA: 98 mentions, 183 engagement
- RDDT: 91 mentions, 348 engagement
- DTE: 80 mentions, 345 engagement
- CSCO: 76 mentions, 148 engagement
- SMCI: 69 mentions, 142 engagement
- LUNR: 62 mentions, 134 engagement
π΄ YouTube Trending Finance:
- MU: 1 views, 0 engagement β MU Micron π¨Major Buy NOW
- NVDA: 1 views, 0 engagement β CNBC & Fox Today On NVIDIA Stock, Micron Stock, SK Hynix, NVIDIA Earnings -
- NOW: 1 views, 0 engagement β MU Micron π¨Major Buy NOW
π₯ Cross-Platform Buzz (Reddit + YouTube):
π TRENDING TOPICS (4 sources)
What people are searching, watching, and sharing today
π Google Trending Searches:
- cincinnati open 2026 (2000+ searches) β Draw Preview: Sabalenka, Rybakina battle for WTA No. 1 in Ci
- rddt stock (2000+ searches) β Reddit stock jumps on inclusion in S&P 500
- mirassol - ldu quito (1000+ searches) β Mirassol vs LDU Quito Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Od
- u.s. airport flight cancellations (1000+ searches) β Ground stop issued for O'Hare, Midway airport due to storms,
- eduardo valencia (1000+ searches) β Deadline additions Lowe, Adell, Griffin deliver as Guardians
- caleb durbin (1000+ searches) β Payton Tolle's eight shutout innings
- emergency landing (500+ searches) β Delta DL1334 has declared an emergency and returned to Atlan
- workday stock (500+ searches) β EXCLUSIVE: Silver Lake in talks to buy Workday, sources say
- vasco vs olimpia (500+ searches) β Vasco da Gama vs Olimpia: Where to watch, TV channel, live s
- trump health (500+ searches) β Opinion | I Was Dick Cheneyβs Cardiologist. I Have Questions
π Wikipedia Most-Viewed:
- Joshua Kushner (525,043 page views)
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day (257,634 page views)
- Lucy Davis (244,610 page views)
- .xxx (221,364 page views)
- Solar eclipse of August 12, 2026 (218,979 page views)
- Brian Madjo (193,832 page views)
- List of solar eclipses visible from the British Isles (183,543 page views)
- David Crowley (Wisconsin politician) (175,684 page views)
- The Odyssey (2026 film) (171,665 page views)
- Francesca Hong (159,262 page views)
πΆ Hacker News Top Stories:
- DeepSeek Harness developer preview (510 pts, 230 comments)
- Gemini 3.7 Flash (481 pts, 297 comments)
- Spaghettifying DRAM (436 pts, 130 comments)
- Codex in ChatGPT desktop app for Linux is now in preview (407 pts, 280 comments)
- Accelerating GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast (309 pts, 121 comments)
- Gloomberb (303 pts, 156 comments)
- Mistral OCR 4.1 (205 pts, 83 comments)
- Choose Boring Technology (2015) (180 pts, 94 comments)
βΆοΈ YouTube Viral:
- ΰ°΅ΰ±ΰ°¦ΰ°Ύΰ°¨ΰ±ΰ°·ΰ± ΰ°¨ΰ°Ώΰ°¨ΰ±ΰ°¨ΰ± π₯°π₯°#trending#shorts#viral#shortvideo#viralvideo#shortsfeed#trendingshorts#f β Trending couple Creations (339,233 views)
- Amazon driver stops delivery to salute American flag β Fox News (237,480 views)
- Allah Tala ke madad π #ytshorts #news #prayer #today #trending #emotional #youtubeshorts#s β Little Sparks (171,355 views)
- Today iβm gonna turn into a cute little cattle dog πΆ πΎπ€ #fyp #dog #cute #trending #viral # β Maa_kayy_lahh<3 (157,109 views)
- The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell 8/12/26 | π
Όππ
½π
±οΈπ
² Breaking News Today Aug 12, 202 β Morning_ America (128,240 views)
- 13 ΰ€
ΰ€ΰ€Έΰ₯ΰ€€ 2026 | Aaj Ki 25 Sabse Badi Khabrein | Breaking News Today | Ravish Kumar Prime T β News 25 X (107,167 views)
π¬ CAUSAL VALIDATION
Grade distribution across 11 validated models: F:11
High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) β predictions have statistically confirmed signal
β οΈ 11 low-validity models (D/F): BAC, CPT, DIS, FFIV, IFF, KEY, ODFL, SWK, SWKS, WFC, WTW
Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.
ποΈ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES
π 50 trades in last 14 days
π’ 17 Purchases | π΄ 33 Sales
Senate: 1 | House: 49
Most Active Tickers:
- π’ Bought: GOOGN Γ2, AMAT Γ1, CRWD Γ1, GOOGM Γ1, MNST Γ1
- π΄ Sold: BLK Γ2, IBM Γ2, AAPL Γ2, ACI Γ2, AMZN Γ2
Recent Notable Trades:
- π΄ PEP sold by Mike Kelly (R-H) β $15,001 - $50,000
- π’ ABVX bought by Ro Khanna (D-H) β $15,001 - $50,000
- π΄ ACI sold by Ro Khanna (D-H) β $15,001 - $50,000
- π΄ ADSK sold by Ro Khanna (D-H) β $15,001 - $50,000
β
Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant
02 β TODAY'S PREDICTIONS
🎯 Ticker Momentum
Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.
| # |
Ticker |
Score |
Daily Dir |
Daily Conf |
Daily AUC |
Weekly Dir |
Weekly Conf |
Weekly AUC |
Monthly Dir |
Monthly Conf |
Monthly AUC |
MR Q |
Regime |
Val |
Coverage |
| 1 |
BIO |
100 |
π β |
58.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 2 |
KEY |
100 |
π β |
95.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 3 |
SWK |
100 |
π β |
75.1% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 4 |
WTW |
100 |
π β |
86.4% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 5 |
BAC |
100 |
π β |
64.5% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 6 |
FFIV |
100 |
π β |
95.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 7 |
WFC |
100 |
π β |
75.1% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 8 |
APH |
100 |
π β |
64.5% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
Lower Confidence Picks
(calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)
| # |
Ticker |
Score |
Daily Dir |
Daily Conf |
Daily AUC |
Weekly Dir |
Weekly Conf |
Weekly AUC |
Monthly Dir |
Monthly Conf |
Monthly AUC |
MR Q |
Regime |
Val |
Coverage |
| 1 |
COO |
100 |
π β |
38.4% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 2 |
CPT |
100 |
π β |
38.4% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 3 |
HUBB |
100 |
π β |
48.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 4 |
TXT |
100 |
π β |
48.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 5 |
IFF |
100 |
π β |
33.7% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 6 |
JNJ |
100 |
π β |
48.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 7 |
ODFL |
100 |
π β |
48.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 8 |
PAYC |
100 |
π β |
48.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 9 |
SWKS |
100 |
π β |
33.7% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 10 |
BBY |
100 |
π β |
45.4% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 11 |
DIS |
100 |
π β |
48.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 12 |
MCHP |
100 |
π β |
48.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
π Legend
β‘ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%
π β BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum
π β BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum
Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting
AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)
Val: Causal validity grade (AβF) β statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal | C = moderate | D = 25% size | F = skipped by trading engine
MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold β potential bounce candidate |
Q4 Mildly oversold |
Q3 Neutral |
Q2 Mildly overbought |
Q1 Most overbought β potential fade candidate
Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend
Bull / Bear / Neutral
Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)
π’ Green rows: High confidence (β₯60%)
π΄ Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)
Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41%
(calibrated confidence reflects this)
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β οΈ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
π MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values.
They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.
π° FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.
π« NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.
π€ AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.
π SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.
π DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.
βοΈ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.
π€ INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
For questions or concerns, contact: dave@moneysignals.us