Generated: 2026-08-13 05:36:20 EST

01 — MODEL SCORECARD

How Our Picks Did — Wednesday, Aug 12

5/10 correct — 50% BULLISH calls 50%

Ticker	Predicted	Conf	Actual	Result	Return
DTE	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+0.76%
FITB	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+0.71%
COO	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-0.12%
CHTR	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-4.74%
AMT	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+0.52%
DVN	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-1.19%
ACN	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+0.18%
BBY	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-0.34%
ABT	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+1.08%
GEN	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-1.28%

04 — NEWS & EVENTS

📰 MARKET-RELEVANT NEWS

💼 Business & Markets:

Korea Stock Bulls Drive Second Day of Emerging-Market Gains [Bloomberg] (20h ago)
India’s July Trade Gap Widens as Imports Rise on Robust Demand [Bloomberg] (20h ago)
Shipping giants warn ports and trucks could hold up deliveries and push up prices [CNBC] (20h ago)
‘My husband and I are at odds’: Should we tap our home equity or sell stocks to build... [MarketWatch] (20h ago)
ZUS Coffee Is Said to Explore Malaysia IPO to Raise at Least $245 Million [Bloomberg] (20h ago)
The latest rally has energized the stock market but left the credit market concerned [MarketWatch] (20h ago)
Actress Tamara Mello of ‘She’s All That’ puts L.A. home on the market for $1.5 millio... [MarketWatch] (20h ago)
CK Hutchison Profit Jumps Sharply on Boost From Asset Sales [Bloomberg] (21h ago)

🏛️ Economy & Fed:

When Japan buys yen, it unwinds a dangerous trade [Economist] (20h ago)
Is China’s debt-bomb squad about to blow up? [Economist] (20h ago)
Can Singapore ever build a proper stock market? [Economist] (20h ago)
'Nobody wants it': Lettuce prices see record-setting plunge as cyclospora spooks cons... [CNBC Economy] (9h ago)
U.S. budget deficit surged in July to highest level since March 2021 [CNBC Economy] (10h ago)
Kevin Warsh is struggling to escape his predecessor’s problems [Economist] (12h ago)
Here are five key takeaways from the July CPI inflation report [CNBC Economy] (12h ago)
Consumer prices rose 0.1% in July, as expected, putting the annual rate at 3.4% [CNBC Economy] (15h ago)

🇺🇸 US News:

Three States to Execute Inmates on the Same Day [NYT US] (20h ago)
Homeland Security Paid $464 Million for Airplanes. Then It Parked Them. [NYT US] (20h ago)
In Wyoming, a Primary Fight Between the Right and the Far Right [NYT US] (20h ago)
Sailors and their families have lives on pause, uncertain if they'll return to Mideas... [NPR News] (20h ago)
These swing voters in Nevada say they are not dismissing socialist candidates [NPR News] (20h ago)
Morning news brief [NPR News] (20h ago)
New indictment alleges Nick Reiner was lying in wait before killing his parents [NPR News] (23h ago)
Trump Administration Lets Parts of the National Firearms Act Lapse [NYT US] (1h ago)

🌍 World News:

‘An English Summer Is Not the Same Anymore’ [NYT World] (20h ago)
FIFA’s Infantino backed by six Arab federations including Qatar and Morocco [Al Jazeera] (20h ago)
Pro-Palestine activists smear red paint on Danish defence company [Al Jazeera] (20h ago)
A Patient’s Final Breath in a Congolese Ebola Ward [NYT World] (20h ago)
Bangladesh humble Australia with worst total in contest as Hasan takes 6-55 [Al Jazeera] (20h ago)
Photos: Hope fades in Colombia as teams dig for earthquake survivors [Al Jazeera] (20h ago)
Russian Blockade of Major Ukrainian Ports Threatens Global Grain Supplies [NYT World] (21h ago)
More troops to be sent to West Bank village besieged by Israeli settlers [BBC World] (21h ago)

💻 Technology:

CBP Workers Allegedly Used Government Databases to Spy on Exes, Crushes, and Colleagu... [Wired] (20h ago)
There’s a Fatty Liver Epidemic. AI Could Help Get Ahead of It [Wired] (20h ago)
Happy 45th Birthday to the IBM PC and Model F/XT [Hacker News] (5h ago)
Build Wide, Ship Narrow [Hacker News] (5h ago)

📊 36 of 40 headlines shown

🎯 CORE ENTITY TRACKER

Key individuals and organizations driving markets today

🇺🇸 US Political:

🔴 Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] — 7 mentions, 4 sources

These swing voters in Nevada say they are not dismissing socialist candidat...

🌍 Geopolitical:

⚪ Vladimir Putin [USO, XLE, WEAT, RSX] — 1 mention, 1 source

Putin can no longer claim victory in Ukraine, Nobel Peace Prize winner tell...

🏛️ Institutions:

🟡 Federal Reserve [SPY, TLT, GLD, QQQ] — 3 mentions, 3 sources

Morning news brief

Signal strength: 🔴 high (5+ mentions or corroborated) 🟡 medium (2+ mentions) ⚪ low

📅 Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.

🎯 ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)

A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 → buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.

Signal state (as of 2026-08-12 close):

SPY — no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 10 trading days ago)
IWM — no fire (last: 2026-07-20, 17 trading days ago)
VTI — no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 10 trading days ago)
XLY — no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 49 trading days ago)

No active fire — the normal state. Fires average 8-10 per year per ETF.

Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):

SPY — 268 trades since 1993: 65.3% win vs 58.0% above-trend base · +0.58% avg per 5-day trade
IWM — 193 trades since 2000: 62.2% win vs 53.2% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
VTI — 193 trades since 2001: 64.8% win vs 57.7% above-trend base · +0.48% avg per 5-day trade
XLY — 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.1% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade

⚠️ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated — simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was −8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.

📡 Live state, per-timing splits and every caveat via the free API: GET /api/v1/signals/etf-pullback — included with the free key every subscriber already has.

🎯 MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS

📰 Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:

1. More troops to be sent to West Bank village besieged by Israeli settlers

2. There’s a Fatty Liver Epidemic. AI Could Help Get Ahead of It

🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD

3. Is China’s debt-bomb squad about to blow up?

4. Here are five key takeaways from the July CPI inflation report

🟢 TIP, GLD · 🔴 TLT

5. Russian Blockade of Major Ukrainian Ports Threatens Global Grain Supplies

6. ChatGPT Desktop (Codex Desktop) for Linux

🟢 MSFT, NVDA

📊 Ticker Signal Summary:

🟢 Bullish: NVDA (Related to) ×2, MSFT (Related to) ×2, XLF (Related to) ×2, GOOGL (Related to) ×1, AMD (Related to) ×1, TIP (Related to) ×1
🔴 Bearish: TLT (Related to) ×1
⚪ Mixed: KRE (Related to) ×1, JPM (Related to) ×1, BAC (Related to) ×1, FXI (Related to) ×1

🧠 MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES

Sector leadership: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals (6.2%)
Sector weakness: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods (-2.6%)

📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - SECRET TIER

All Global Events (Sorted by Impact)

Data Collected: 2026-08-13 05:36:17

💱 CAD EVENTS:

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 - Wholesale Sales m/m

Forecast: 2.7% | Previous: 0.0%

🕐 5:30am - Manufacturing Sales m/m

Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 1.3%

💱 EUR EVENTS:

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 - Flash GDP q/q

Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.4%

🕐 - Trade Balance

Forecast: -2.2B | Previous: -5.0B

🕐 2:00am - Flash Employment Change q/q

Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%

💱 USD EVENTS:

🟡 Medium IMPACT:

🕐 - Core Retail Sales m/m

Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.2%

🕐 - Retail Sales m/m

Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.2%

🕐 - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

Forecast: | Previous: 4.2%

🕐 7:00am - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Forecast: 54.7 | Previous: 55.2

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 - Business Inventories m/m

Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%

📊 DETAILED DATA:

Complete CSV data available in attachment
File: economic_calendar_20260814_053553.csv

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:

All global economic events
Sorted by currency and impact level
Complete CSV data included

📊 PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS

Latest Options Activity: 2026-08-11

Market Sentiment Interpretation:

🐻⚠️ Moderately Bearish - Elevated put activity

Key Ratios:

TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.810

Overall market sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.630

Individual stock sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.900

Index options sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.200

Volatility sentiment - 🐻📉 Very Bearish (VIX Call buying >> VIX Put buying - High volatility expected)

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:

Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
All key market sentiment indicators

03 — MARKET SENTIMENT

Stock Market

Greed

Crypto

Fear

📊 FEAR & GREED INDEX

Data Collected: 2026-08-13 05:36:19

🏛️ Stock Market: 62/100 - GREED 🟡

💡 Optimistic sentiment

₿ Crypto Market: 29/100 - FEAR 🟡

💡 Fear & Greed Insights:

Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
Use as contrarian indicator for market timing

🌍 TRENDING TOPICS (4 sources)

What people are searching, watching, and sharing today

🔍 Google Trending Searches:

deportivo vs real madrid (50000+ searches) — Deportivo - Real Madrid, en directo: Teresa Herrera hoy, en
russell westbrook (10000+ searches) — Russell Westbrook Retires from NBA in Video Narrated by Mich
nottm forest vs leverkusen (2000+ searches) — Nottingham Forest vs. Bayer Leverkusen Lineups, Live Streami
red flag (fire weather) warning (1000+ searches) — NorCal forecast: Cooling trend
mortgage rates (1000+ searches) — Mortgage rates finally stop rising, causing demand to trickl
kelly ripa dental procedure (1000+ searches) — Kelly Ripa Reveals ‘Good-Bad Habit’ That Led to Gum Graft Su
mutv (500+ searches) — Manchester United: Youri Tielemans on his dream move, injuri
neil calfas (500+ searches) — San Antonio attorney arrested on solicitation and human traf
splc (500+ searches) — Exclusive: Former employee at Southern Poverty Law Center ar
supercopa de europa (500+ searches) — PSG - Aston Villa, en directo: Supercopa de Europa hoy, en v

📖 Wikipedia Most-Viewed:

.xxx (387,463 page views)
Spider-Man: Brand New Day (286,897 page views)
Lucy Davis (236,321 page views)
The Odyssey (2026 film) (192,140 page views)
The Last House (143,916 page views)
Deaths in 2026 (133,945 page views)
Neatsville, Kentucky (115,073 page views)
Abdul El-Sayed (91,975 page views)
.xyz (87,915 page views)
Anne Hathaway (87,822 page views)

🔶 Hacker News Top Stories:

Tailscale Traces Database Corruption to 16y/o SQLite WAL-Reset Bug (672 pts, 109 comments)
AI is removing the middle class of software engineering? (642 pts, 533 comments)
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 (616 pts, 217 comments)
AI is removing the middle class of software engineering (480 pts, 399 comments)
2026 Eclipse Webcams (442 pts, 121 comments)
Qwen3.8-2.4T (397 pts, 87 comments)
License plate reader searches should require a warrant (386 pts, 242 comments)
Grok 4.6 (314 pts, 321 comments)

▶️ YouTube Viral:

Allah Tala ke madad 😭 #ytshorts #news #prayer#today#trending #emotional#youtubeshorts#shor — Deen Spark (1,086,773 views)
Viral Video : कम पेट्रोल की शिकायत पर भड़के कर्मचारी, मौलाना को पीट दिया! #balrampur #petr — ABP NEWS (450,203 views)
Today i’m gonna turn into a cute little cattle dog 🐶 🐾 #fyp #trending #dog #cute #kawaii # — Maa_kayy_lahh<3 (234,978 views)
Viral Video : चंडीगढ़ के लंगर में बंटते हैं 500 रुपये के नोट! | #Chandigarh #CashLangar #5 — ABP NEWS (227,093 views)
Rimjhim new bts #today #love #wedding #ytshorts #funny #funny #video #viral — The YT surru (208,348 views)
Allah Tala ke madad 😭 #ytshorts #news #prayer #today #trending #emotional #youtubeshorts#s — Rk Offocial (148,996 views)

🔬 CAUSAL VALIDATION

Grade distribution across 11 validated models: F:11

High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) — predictions have statistically confirmed signal

⚠️ 11 low-validity models (D/F): BAC, CPT, FFIV, ICE, IFF, KEY, ODFL, SWK, SWKS, WFC, WTW

Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.

🏛️ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES

📊 50 trades in last 14 days

🟢 20 Purchases | 🔴 30 Sales

Senate: 1 | House: 49

Most Active Tickers:

🟢 Bought: GOOGN ×2, CB ×2, GOOGL ×2, META ×2, AMAT ×1
🔴 Sold: BLK ×2, CCI ×2, IBM ×2, AAPL ×2, AMZN ×2

Recent Notable Trades:

🔴 PEP sold by Mike Kelly (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
🔴 CARR sold by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
🟢 CB bought by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
🟢 CB bought by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000

—

Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant

02 — TODAY'S PREDICTIONS

🎯 Ticker Momentum

Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.

#	Ticker	Score	Daily Dir	Daily Conf	Daily AUC	Weekly Dir	Weekly Conf	Weekly AUC	Monthly Dir	Monthly Conf	Monthly AUC	MR Q	Regime	Val	Coverage
1	COO	100	📈 ↑	95.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
2	CPT	100	📉 ↓	58.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
3	KEY	100	📈 ↑	95.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
4	FFIV	100	📈 ↑	95.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
5	IFF	100	📉 ↓	64.5%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
6	ODFL	100	📉 ↓	58.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
7	PNW	100	📉 ↓	86.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3

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Lower Confidence Picks (calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)

#	Ticker	Score	Daily Dir	Daily Conf	Daily AUC	Weekly Dir	Weekly Conf	Weekly AUC	Monthly Dir	Monthly Conf	Monthly AUC	MR Q	Regime	Val	Coverage
1	BIO	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
2	HUBB	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
3	MHK	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
4	MTCH	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
5	SWK	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
6	TXT	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
7	WTW	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
8	BAC	100	📈 ↑	38.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
9	ICE	100	📈 ↑	38.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
10	JNJ	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
11	PAYC	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
12	SWKS	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
13	WFC	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3

📖 Legend

⚡ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%

📈 ↑ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum

📉 ↓ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum

Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting

AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)

Val: Causal validity grade (A–F) — statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal | C = moderate | D = 25% size | F = skipped by trading engine

MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold — potential bounce candidate | Q4 Mildly oversold | Q3 Neutral | Q2 Mildly overbought | Q1 Most overbought — potential fade candidate

Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend Bull / Bear / Neutral

Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)

🟢 Green rows: High confidence (≥60%)

🔴 Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)

Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41% (calibrated confidence reflects this)

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⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

📊 MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values. They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.

💰 FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.

🚫 NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.

🤖 AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.

📈 SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.

📊 DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.

⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.

👤 INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
For questions or concerns, contact: dave@moneysignals.us