MoneySignals Daily Predictions · Top Predictions
2026-08-13 (Thursday) · secret tier
Tickers
360
With Signals
360
Daily
360
Weekly
0
Monthly
0

Generated: 2026-08-12 05:36:40 EST

01 โ€” MODEL SCORECARD
How Our Picks Did — Tuesday, Aug 11
5/10 correct — 50% BULLISH calls 50%
Ticker Predicted Conf Actual Result Return
F ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -0.14%
HD ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +1.05%
COO ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.66%
DVN ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.09%
GEN ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -0.96%
BAC ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.22%
ACN ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↑ BULLISH ✓ +0.88%
AKAM ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -0.83%
CSGP ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -1.14%
MRK ↑ BULLISH 95.0% ↓ BEARISH ✗ -0.38%
04 โ€” NEWS & EVENTS
๐Ÿ“ฐ MARKET-RELEVANT NEWS

๐Ÿ’ผ Business & Markets:

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Economy & Fed:

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US News:

๐ŸŒ World News:

๐Ÿ’ป Technology:

๐Ÿ“Š 31 of 34 headlines shown
๐ŸŽฏ CORE ENTITY TRACKER

Key individuals and organizations driving markets today

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Political:
  • ๐Ÿ”ด Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] โ€” 7 mentions, 5 sources
Trump confirms he switched planes after Nato summit because of possible thr...

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Institutions:
  • ๐ŸŸก Federal Reserve [SPY, TLT, GLD, QQQ] โ€” 4 mentions, 3 sources
Pimco Sees Fed on Hold Through 2026 as Inflation Moderates

Signal strength: ๐Ÿ”ด high (5+ mentions or corroborated) ๐ŸŸก medium (2+ mentions) โšช low
๐Ÿ“… Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.
๐ŸŽฏ ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)

A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 โ†’ buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.

Signal state (as of 2026-08-11 close):
  • SPY โ€” no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 9 trading days ago)
  • IWM โ€” no fire (last: 2026-07-20, 16 trading days ago)
  • VTI โ€” no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 9 trading days ago)
  • XLY โ€” no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 48 trading days ago)
No active fire โ€” the normal state. Fires average 8-10 per year per ETF.

Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):
  • SPY โ€” 268 trades since 1993: 65.3% win vs 58.0% above-trend base ยท +0.58% avg per 5-day trade
  • IWM โ€” 193 trades since 2000: 62.2% win vs 53.2% above-trend base ยท +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
  • VTI โ€” 193 trades since 2001: 64.8% win vs 57.7% above-trend base ยท +0.48% avg per 5-day trade
  • XLY โ€” 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.1% above-trend base ยท +0.69% avg per 5-day trade

โš ๏ธ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated โ€” simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was โˆ’8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.

๐Ÿ“ก Live state, per-timing splits and every caveat via the free API: GET /api/v1/signals/etf-pullback โ€” included with the free key every subscriber already has.
๐ŸŽฏ MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS

๐Ÿ“ฐ Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:

1. AI chatbots are offering financial advice. Should you trust them?
๐ŸŸข NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD

2. Are hacks of U.S. water facilities a new front in the Iran war?
๐ŸŸข DFEN, GLD, XLE, VXX

3. Another AI lab is burning through cash as Tencent earnings rise
๐ŸŸข NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD

4. Pimco Sees Fed on Hold Through 2026 as Inflation Moderates
๐ŸŸข TIP

5. Launch HN: Discovered Materials (YC P26) โ€“ AI agents to discover new materials
๐ŸŸข NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD

6. An inflation report Wednesday should be a big deal for the Fed. Here's what to expect
๐ŸŸข TIP

๐Ÿ“Š Ticker Signal Summary:
  • ๐ŸŸข Bullish: NVDA (Related to) ร—3, MSFT (Related to) ร—3, GOOGL (Related to) ร—3, AMD (Related to) ร—3, GLD (Related to) ร—3, TIP (Related to) ร—2
  • โšช Mixed: TLT (Related to) ร—2, XLF (Related to) ร—2, TAN (Related to) ร—1, ENPH (Related to) ร—1
๐Ÿง  MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES

  • Sector leadership: Electronic Manufacturing Services (4.0%)
  • Sector weakness: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods (-2.1%)
๐Ÿ“… ECONOMIC CALENDAR - SECRET TIER
All Global Events (Sorted by Impact)
Data Collected: 2026-08-12 05:36:37

๐Ÿ’ฑ AUD EVENTS:
๐Ÿ”ด High IMPACT:
๐Ÿ• 4:30pm - RBA Gov Bullock Speaks
Forecast: | Previous:

๐ŸŸข Low IMPACT:
๐Ÿ• 7:30am - CB Leading Index m/m
Forecast: | Previous: 0.2%

๐Ÿ’ฑ CNY EVENTS:
๐ŸŸข Low IMPACT:
๐Ÿ• Tentative - New Loans
Forecast: -50B | Previous: 1610B
๐Ÿ• Tentative - M2 Money Supply y/y
Forecast: 7.9% | Previous: 8.0%

๐Ÿ’ฑ EUR EVENTS:
๐ŸŸข Low IMPACT:
๐Ÿ• 11:00pm - German WPI m/m
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.7%
๐Ÿ• 11:45pm - French Final CPI m/m
Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: 0.6%
๐Ÿ• 2:00am - Industrial Production m/m
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -0.2%

๐Ÿ’ฑ GBP EVENTS:
๐ŸŸข Low IMPACT:
๐Ÿ• 6:30am - CB Leading Index m/m
Forecast: | Previous: -0.5%

๐Ÿ’ฑ NZD EVENTS:
๐ŸŸข Low IMPACT:
๐Ÿ• 3:30pm - BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index
Forecast: | Previous: 59.7
๐Ÿ• 3:45pm - Visitor Arrivals m/m
Forecast: | Previous: -2.4%

๐Ÿ’ฑ USD EVENTS:
๐Ÿ”ด High IMPACT:
๐Ÿ• - PPI m/m
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.3%
๐Ÿ• 5:30am - Core PPI m/m
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%

๐ŸŸก Medium IMPACT:
๐Ÿ• - Unemployment Claims
Forecast: 202K | Previous: 199K

๐ŸŸข Low IMPACT:
๐Ÿ• - Natural Gas Storage
Forecast: 31B | Previous: 33B
๐Ÿ• 10:01am - 30-y Bond Auction
Forecast: | Previous: 5.06|2.4
๐Ÿ• 5:15am - FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
Forecast: | Previous:
๐Ÿ• 5:40am - FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Forecast: | Previous:
๐Ÿ• Tentative - Mortgage Delinquencies
Forecast: | Previous: 4.44%

๐Ÿ“Š DETAILED DATA:
  • Complete CSV data available in attachment
  • File: economic_calendar_20260813_053525.csv

๐Ÿ’ก SECRET TIER ACCESS:
  • All global economic events
  • Sorted by currency and impact level
  • Complete CSV data included
๐Ÿ“Š PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS
Latest Options Activity: 2026-08-11

Market Sentiment Interpretation:
๐Ÿปโš ๏ธ Moderately Bearish - Elevated put activity

Key Ratios:
  • TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.810
Overall market sentiment - ๐Ÿ‚โœ… Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

  • EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.630
Individual stock sentiment - ๐Ÿ‚โœ… Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

  • INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.900
Index options sentiment - ๐Ÿ‚โœ… Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

  • CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.200
Volatility sentiment - ๐Ÿป๐Ÿ“‰ Very Bearish (VIX Call buying >> VIX Put buying - High volatility expected)

๐Ÿ’ก SECRET TIER ACCESS:
  • Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
  • All key market sentiment indicators
03 โ€” MARKET SENTIMENT
Stock Market
60
Greed
Crypto
27
Fear
๐Ÿ“Š FEAR & GREED INDEX
Data Collected: 2026-08-12 05:36:39

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Stock Market: 60/100 - GREED ๐ŸŸก
๐Ÿ’ก Optimistic sentiment

โ‚ฟ Crypto Market: 27/100 - FEAR ๐ŸŸก

๐Ÿ’ก Fear & Greed Insights:
  • Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
  • Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
  • Use as contrarian indicator for market timing
๐ŸŒ TRENDING TOPICS (4 sources)

What people are searching, watching, and sharing today

๐Ÿ” Google Trending Searches:
  • nato (20000+ searches) โ€” Trump Said to Have Secretly Used Military Jet to Leave Turke
  • indianapolis weather (5000+ searches) โ€” Severe storms and flood threat ramp up this afternoon
  • ojai raptor center (5000+ searches) โ€” Big Bear bald eagles: What's next for Shadow after Jackie's
  • overwatch patch notes (2000+ searches) โ€” Reign of Talon โ€“ Season 4: Heroes of Busan Brings Out the Be
  • oreo (1000+ searches) โ€” Oreoโ€™s New Chicken-Flavored Cookie Has Fans Completely Gross
  • boca vs recoleta (1000+ searches) โ€” Una figura de Recoleta palpitรณ la serie con Boca: "Le vamos
  • wthr (1000+ searches) โ€” Watch for gusty wind storms (up to 75 mph) over Indiana Tues
  • child (1000+ searches) โ€” Tyler Boebert, son of Rep. Lauren Boebert, arrested on child
  • rafael jodar (1000+ searches) โ€” Rafa Jรณdar - Arthur Fils en directo, los cuartos del Masters
  • negan (1000+ searches) โ€” Negan star says he almost walked away from The Walking Dead

๐Ÿ“– Wikipedia Most-Viewed:
  • Roblox (4,781,328 page views)
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day (366,788 page views)
  • The Odyssey (2026 film) (246,999 page views)
  • The Last House (182,024 page views)
  • House of the Dragon season 3 (173,661 page views)
  • House of the Dragon (159,828 page views)
  • Ben Jones (American actor and politician) (149,956 page views)
  • Deaths in 2026 (138,086 page views)
  • Abdul El-Sayed (125,920 page views)
  • Daniel Kinahan (122,871 page views)

๐Ÿ”ถ Hacker News Top Stories:
  • As AI eats the web, the internetโ€™s collective memory is disappearing (783 pts, 794 comments)
  • Mark Zuckerberg attacks 'closed' AI rivals as Meta returns to open models (616 pts, 574 comments)
  • Show HN: Needle2: 14MB agentic LLM for phones, wearables, smart home and robots (488 pts, 162 comments)
  • England set to be one of the first countries to eliminate hepatitis C (459 pts, 329 comments)
  • Stealing Reasoning Traces from Proprietary LLM APIs (416 pts, 164 comments)
  • H3-metal โ€“ Native MiniMax-H3 inference for Apple Silicon (401 pts, 93 comments)
  • Nvidia's Risky Business (261 pts, 114 comments)
  • Apple Silicon and macOS VMs: 11โ€“16ร— Faster LLM Inference with Llama.cpp (221 pts, 32 comments)

โ–ถ๏ธ YouTube Viral:
  • Why did Riva forget to bring a water bottle to school today? โ€” RivAlivaBiswas (760,930 views)
  • Palak waking on set ๐Ÿ˜œ๐Ÿ˜œrimjhim #today #love #ytshorts #funny #viral #video #eyecatchy #newy โ€” The YT surru (641,489 views)
  • Rimjhim new bts funny #today #ytshorts #funny #viral #video #love #viralchallenge #viralvi โ€” The YT surru (355,467 views)
  • Today, I dug up the soil and found a box. ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ˜ฒ#trending #shortvideo #viral โ€” Chimkandi 2.0 (270,305 views)
  • Allah Tala ke madad ๐Ÿ˜ญ #ytshorts #news #prayer#today#trending #emotional#youtubeshorts#shor โ€” Deen Spark (196,750 views)
  • Iran US War๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿ’ฃ๐Ÿš€เคˆเคฐเคพเคจ เค•เฅ€ US เค•เฅ‹ เค–เฅเคฒเฅ€ เคงเคฎเค•เฅ€! ๐Ÿ’ฅAmerica เคธเฅ‡เคจเคพ เคนเคŸเคพเค, เคตเคฐเคจเคพ ! ๐Ÿ˜กโšก๐Ÿคซ๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿ”ฅ#shorts โ€” Newsnow24x7 Live (176,295 views)

๐Ÿ”ฌ CAUSAL VALIDATION
Grade distribution across 10 validated models: F:10
High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) โ€” predictions have statistically confirmed signal

โš ๏ธ 10 low-validity models (D/F): CPT, FFIV, ICE, IFF, KEY, ODFL, SWK, SWKS, WFC, WTW
Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.
๐Ÿ›๏ธ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES

๐Ÿ“Š 50 trades in last 14 days
๐ŸŸข 21 Purchases | ๐Ÿ”ด 29 Sales
Senate: 1 | House: 49

Most Active Tickers:
  • ๐ŸŸข Bought: GOOGN ร—2, CB ร—2, GOOGL ร—2, META ร—2, AMAT ร—1
  • ๐Ÿ”ด Sold: BLK ร—2, CCI ร—2, IBM ร—2, AAPL ร—2, AMZN ร—2

Recent Notable Trades:
  • ๐Ÿ”ด CARR sold by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) โ€” $15,001 - $50,000
  • ๐ŸŸข CB bought by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) โ€” $15,001 - $50,000
  • ๐ŸŸข CB bought by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) โ€” $15,001 - $50,000

โ€”
Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant
02 โ€” TODAY'S PREDICTIONS

🎯 Ticker Momentum

Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.

# Ticker Score Daily Dir Daily Conf Daily AUC Weekly Dir Weekly Conf Weekly AUC Monthly Dir Monthly Conf Monthly AUC MR Q Regime Val Coverage
1 BIO 100 ๐Ÿ“‰ โ†“ 58.3%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” N/A 1/3
2 COO 100 ๐Ÿ“ˆ โ†‘ 95.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” N/A 1/3
3 CPT 100 ๐Ÿ“‰ โ†“ 64.5%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” F 1/3
4 TXT 100 ๐Ÿ“‰ โ†“ 64.5%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” N/A 1/3
5 WTW 100 ๐Ÿ“‰ โ†“ 75.1%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” F 1/3
6 ODFL 100 ๐Ÿ“‰ โ†“ 58.3%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” F 1/3
7 WFC 100 ๐Ÿ“‰ โ†“ 75.1%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” F 1/3
8 APH 100 ๐Ÿ“‰ โ†“ 64.5%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” N/A 1/3
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Lower Confidence Picks (calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)

# Ticker Score Daily Dir Daily Conf Daily AUC Weekly Dir Weekly Conf Weekly AUC Monthly Dir Monthly Conf Monthly AUC MR Q Regime Val Coverage
1 HUBB 100 ๐Ÿ“ˆ โ†‘ 33.7%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” N/A 1/3
2 KEY 100 ๐Ÿ“ˆ โ†‘ 33.7%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” F 1/3
3 MHK 100 ๐Ÿ“‰ โ†“ 48.3%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” N/A 1/3
4 MTCH 100 ๐Ÿ“ˆ โ†‘ 33.7%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” N/A 1/3
5 SWK 100 ๐Ÿ“ˆ โ†‘ 38.4%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” F 1/3
6 FFIV 100 ๐Ÿ“ˆ โ†‘ 33.7%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” F 1/3
7 ICE 100 ๐Ÿ“ˆ โ†‘ 38.4%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” F 1/3
8 IFF 100 ๐Ÿ“ˆ โ†‘ 33.7%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” F 1/3
9 JNJ 100 ๐Ÿ“‰ โ†“ 48.3%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” N/A 1/3
10 PAYC 100 ๐Ÿ“ˆ โ†‘ 33.7%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” N/A 1/3
11 PNW 100 ๐Ÿ“‰ โ†“ 48.3%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” N/A 1/3
12 SWKS 100 ๐Ÿ“ˆ โ†‘ 33.7%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” 0.0%
 โ€” โ€” โ€” F 1/3

๐Ÿ“– Legend

โšก Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%

๐Ÿ“ˆ โ†‘ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum

๐Ÿ“‰ โ†“ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum

Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting

AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)

Val: Causal validity grade (Aโ€“F) โ€” statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal  |  C = moderate  |  D = 25% size  |  F = skipped by trading engine

MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold โ€” potential bounce candidate  |  Q4 Mildly oversold  |  Q3 Neutral  |  Q2 Mildly overbought  |  Q1 Most overbought โ€” potential fade candidate

Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend   Bull / Bear / Neutral

Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)

๐ŸŸข Green rows: High confidence (โ‰ฅ60%)

๐Ÿ”ด Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)

Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41% (calibrated confidence reflects this)

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โš ๏ธ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

๐Ÿ“Š MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values. They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.

๐Ÿ’ฐ FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.

๐Ÿšซ NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.

๐Ÿค– AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.

๐Ÿ“ˆ SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.

๐Ÿ“Š DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.

โš–๏ธ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.

๐Ÿ‘ค INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
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