Generated: 2026-08-11 05:36:08 EST

01 — MODEL SCORECARD

How Our Picks Did — Friday, Aug 7

5/10 correct — 50% BULLISH calls 50%

Ticker	Predicted	Conf	Actual	Result	Return
HD	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+1.75%
IRM	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-0.66%
CINF	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-1.22%
HAS	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+2.00%
CAH	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-0.53%
CCI	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+0.89%
ACN	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+2.69%
BEN	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-0.68%
BAX	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↑ BULLISH	✓	+2.00%
JCI	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-1.51%

04 — NEWS & EVENTS

📰 MARKET-RELEVANT NEWS

💼 Business & Markets:

Eli Lilly takes weight-loss pill battle global with first Foundayo approval outside U... [CNBC] (20h ago)
Adani Wins Dismissal in US Fraud Case [Bloomberg] (20h ago)
SAIHEAT agrees merger with Canopy Wave in AI inference pivot [Yahoo Finance] (20h ago)
Europe's Extreme Heat Wave Crisis Is Getting Worse [Bloomberg] (20h ago)
U.S. oil tops $84 as Hormuz deal hopes dwindle and deadlock deepens [CNBC] (20h ago)
Dave Ramsey warns nearly 50% of Americans make 1 big Social Security mistake — here's... [Yahoo Finance] (20h ago)
Aubrey Plaza finally finds a buyer for $4.9 million L.A. home and is expecting her fi... [MarketWatch] (20h ago)
Red Hot Chili Peppers bassist Flea relists Malibu sanctuary for $7.9 million [MarketWatch] (20h ago)

🏛️ Economy & Fed:

China is now the world’s great oil power [Economist] (1d ago)

🇺🇸 US News:

Will the Left Keep Winning in the Midwest? What to Watch in Tuesday’s Primaries. [NYT US] (20h ago)
Wildfire Forces Evacuations in Big Sur, Along California’s Famed Northern Coast [NYT US] (20h ago)
Democrats Plan New Push to Defeat Max Miller in Ohio After Abuse Accusations [NYT US] (20h ago)
Can Immigration Agents Stop People Based on Appearance? [NYT US] (20h ago)
Alabama holds second primary Tuesday, leading to confusion, concerns about low turnou... [NPR News] (20h ago)
In Minnesota and Wisconsin, competitive primaries will again test power of progressiv... [NPR News] (20h ago)
A year in, thousands of armed troops have quietly become a fixture of D.C. life [NPR News] (20h ago)
The school year begins in LA with one big change: limited screen time [NPR News] (20h ago)

🌍 World News:

How Raúl Castro’s Grandson, Raúl G. Rodríguez Castro, Became a Power Broker [NYT World] (20h ago)
A Syrian Holdout Province, Sweida, Fears a Government Takeover [NYT World] (20h ago)
Rescue efforts intensify as quake devastates western Colombia towns [Al Jazeera] (20h ago)
Swiatek to face Svitolina in Canadian Open semifinal [Al Jazeera] (20h ago)
What to know about the US primaries in Connecticut, Vermont, and Alabama [Al Jazeera] (20h ago)
‘My father is in RSS’: India’s Gen Z confronts Modi-loving parents at home [Al Jazeera] (21h ago)
At least 132 killed in Colombia's largest earthquake in years [BBC World] (1h ago)
In a Sweltering Summer, These Italians Want Romans to Curl [NYT World] (1h ago)

💻 Technology:

AI Is Helping Solve the Intricate Genetic Puzzle of Schizophrenia [Wired] (20h ago)
France to ban unsolicited telemarketing calls [Hacker News] (21h ago)
Chewy Promo Codes: $20 Off August 2026 [Wired] (35m ago)
Recycle – Floppydisks [Hacker News] (3h ago)
H3-metal – Native MiniMax-H3 inference for Apple Silicon [Hacker News] (4h ago)

📊 30 of 33 headlines shown

🎯 CORE ENTITY TRACKER

Key individuals and organizations driving markets today

🇺🇸 US Political:

🔴 Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] — 6 mentions, 5 sources

Trump hidden in catering truck in secret plane swap over Iran threat, repor...

🌍 Geopolitical:

⚪ Benjamin Netanyahu [XLE, ITA, GLD, USO] — 1 mention, 1 source

Netanyahu's rejection of Trump's 15-point Gaza plan unlikely to be final wo...

🏛️ Institutions:

⚪ OPEC+ [USO, XLE, XOM, CVX] — 1 mention, 1 source

China is now the world’s great oil power

Signal strength: 🔴 high (5+ mentions or corroborated) 🟡 medium (2+ mentions) ⚪ low

📅 Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.

🎯 ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)

A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 → buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.

Signal state (as of 2026-08-10 close):

SPY — no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 8 trading days ago)
IWM — no fire (last: 2026-07-20, 15 trading days ago)
VTI — no fire (last: 2026-07-29, 8 trading days ago)
XLY — no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 47 trading days ago)

No active fire — the normal state. Fires average 8-10 per year per ETF.

Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):

SPY — 268 trades since 1993: 65.3% win vs 58.0% above-trend base · +0.58% avg per 5-day trade
IWM — 193 trades since 2000: 62.2% win vs 53.2% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
VTI — 193 trades since 2001: 64.8% win vs 57.7% above-trend base · +0.48% avg per 5-day trade
XLY — 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.1% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade

⚠️ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated — simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was −8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.

📡 Live state, per-timing splits and every caveat via the free API: GET /api/v1/signals/etf-pullback — included with the free key every subscriber already has.

🎯 MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS

📰 Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:

1. China is now the world’s great oil power

2. U.S. oil tops $84 as Hormuz deal hopes dwindle and deadlock deepens

3. AI Is Helping Solve the Intricate Genetic Puzzle of Schizophrenia

🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD

📊 Ticker Signal Summary:

🟢 Bullish: NVDA (Related to) ×1, MSFT (Related to) ×1, GOOGL (Related to) ×1, AMD (Related to) ×1
⚪ Mixed: XLE (Related to) ×2, USO (Related to) ×2, FXI (Related to) ×1, BABA (Related to) ×1

🧠 MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES

Sector leadership: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (6.2%)
Sector weakness: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment (-2.8%)

📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - SECRET TIER

All Global Events (Sorted by Impact)

Data Collected: 2026-08-11 05:36:05

💱 AUD EVENTS:

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 5:15pm - RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks

Forecast: | Previous:

💱 CAD EVENTS:

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 5:30am - Building Permits m/m

Forecast: 0.8% | Previous: -1.7%

💱 CHF EVENTS:

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 11:30pm - PPI m/m

Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.3%

💱 CNY EVENTS:

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 Tentative - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y

Forecast: | Previous: -5.0%

💱 EUR EVENTS:

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 Tentative - German 30-y Bond Auction

Forecast: | Previous: 3.64|2.9

💱 GBP EVENTS:

🔴 High IMPACT:

🕐 11:00pm - GDP m/m

Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.1%

🟡 Medium IMPACT:

🕐 - Prelim GDP q/q

Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.6%

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 - Goods Trade Balance

Forecast: -20.6B | Previous: -18.7B

🕐 - Manufacturing Production m/m

Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.1%

🕐 - Industrial Production m/m

Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.5%

🕐 - Index of Services 3m/3m

Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.7%

🕐 - Construction Output m/m

Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: -0.8%

🕐 - Prelim Business Investment q/q

Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: 0.9%

🕐 4:01pm - RICS House Price Balance

Forecast: -30% | Previous: -33%

💱 JPY EVENTS:

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 4:50pm - PPI y/y

Forecast: 7.4% | Previous: 7.1%

💱 NZD EVENTS:

🟡 Medium IMPACT:

🕐 8:00pm - Inflation Expectations q/q

Forecast: | Previous: 2.53%

💱 USD EVENTS:

🔴 High IMPACT:

🕐 - Core CPI m/m

Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%

🕐 - Core CPI y/y

Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.6%

🕐 - CPI m/m

Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.4%

🕐 - CPI y/y

Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 3.5%

🟢 Low IMPACT:

🕐 10:01am - 10-y Bond Auction

Forecast: | Previous: 4.58|2.6

🕐 11:00am - Federal Budget Balance

Forecast: -361.2B | Previous: -120.3B

🕐 7:30am - Crude Oil Inventories

Forecast: | Previous: 2.5M

📊 DETAILED DATA:

Complete CSV data available in attachment
File: economic_calendar_20260812_053536.csv

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:

All global economic events
Sorted by currency and impact level
Complete CSV data included

📊 PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS

Latest Options Activity: 2026-08-07

Market Sentiment Interpretation:

🐂✅ Bullish - More call activity than put activity

Key Ratios:

TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.760

Overall market sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.540

Individual stock sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.980

Index options sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.290

Volatility sentiment - 🐻📉 Very Bearish (VIX Call buying >> VIX Put buying - High volatility expected)

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:

Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
All key market sentiment indicators

03 — MARKET SENTIMENT

Stock Market

Greed

Crypto

Fear

📊 FEAR & GREED INDEX

Data Collected: 2026-08-11 05:36:06

🏛️ Stock Market: 65/100 - GREED 🟡

💡 Optimistic sentiment

₿ Crypto Market: 29/100 - FEAR 🟡

💡 Fear & Greed Insights:

Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
Use as contrarian indicator for market timing

🌍 TRENDING TOPICS (4 sources)

What people are searching, watching, and sharing today

🔍 Google Trending Searches:

zach holland golf (2000+ searches) — Golfer resigns from club after admitting to fake hole-in-one
candida auris (2000+ searches) — Texas leads US in cases of dangerous fungal infection
quinnen williams (2000+ searches) — Sources: Cowboys, Quinnen Williams reach 3-year, $105.9M dea
anna osceola (2000+ searches) — Jon Hamm and Wife Anna Osceola Expecting First Baby Together
ballot (1000+ searches) — Russian court bars from parliamentary ballot the only party
enes kanter freedom wnba letter (1000+ searches) — Former NBA star Enes Kanter Freedom writes letter to WNBA of
jeffrey dean morgan (500+ searches) — ‘Walking Dead: Dead City’ star Jeffrey Dean Morgan reveals w
dennis kirk trump interior nomination (500+ searches) — Trump nominates loyalist to office that would oversee Reflec
dax shepard (500+ searches) — Dax Shepard reflects on being raised by a single mom, says t
hunter biden tucker carlson interview (500+ searches) — Hunter Biden tells Tucker Carlson that Trump poses an ‘exist

📖 Wikipedia Most-Viewed:

Spider-Man: Brand New Day (427,106 page views)
The Odyssey (2026 film) (297,415 page views)
The Last House (264,867 page views)
Abdul El-Sayed (162,949 page views)
Zendaya (157,899 page views)
Tom Holland (135,348 page views)
Toxic (2026 film) (130,966 page views)
Deaths in 2026 (127,209 page views)
DC (film) (125,171 page views)
Daniel Kinahan (105,455 page views)

🔶 Hacker News Top Stories:

Muse Glimmer: 30B-parameter model optimized for always-on local agent workflows (941 pts, 527 comments)
Docker Sandboxes – Disposable, isolated sandboxes for AI agents (542 pts, 321 comments)
Mark Zuckerberg attacks 'closed' AI rivals as Meta returns to open models (258 pts, 316 comments)
Sonic Pi v5 (250 pts, 67 comments)
Mistral Patent for “Code implemented tool calls” (192 pts, 158 comments)
Squeak 6.1 (192 pts, 97 comments)
Illinois Just Passed a Law That Puts Linux on the Hook for Age Verification (185 pts, 198 comments)
Parametron: 50s Japanese computer that uses neither transistors nor vacuum tubes (160 pts, 43 comments)

▶️ YouTube Viral:

Rimjhim new BTS #today #love #ytshorts #funny #viral #video #viralvideo — The YT surru (640,041 views)
Allah Tala ke madad 😭 #ytshorts #news #prayer#today#trending #emotional#youtubeshorts#shor — Deen Spark (510,351 views)
10 अगस्त 2026 | Aaj Ki 25 Sabse Badi Khabrein | Breaking News Today | Ravish Kumar Prime — Sahi Jankari Bhandar (275,299 views)
10 अगस्त 2026 | Aaj Ki 25 Sabse Badi Khabrein | Breaking News Today | Ravish Kumar Prime T — News 25 X (221,018 views)
হরমুজ খুলতেই ট্রাম্পের শেষ চেষ্টা, ছাড়লেন পরমাণু চুক্তিও! | US Iran | ITV Special — Independent Television (220,943 views)
Jay Ramapir # #today #viral #youtube #वायरल #youtubeshort #newshorts #gujarat — Girnar Darshan official (160,387 views)

🔬 CAUSAL VALIDATION

Grade distribution across 11 validated models: F:11

High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) — predictions have statistically confirmed signal

⚠️ 11 low-validity models (D/F): BAC, CPT, FFIV, ICE, IFF, KEY, ODFL, SWK, SWKS, WFC, WTW

Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.

🏛️ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES

📊 50 trades in last 14 days

🟢 24 Purchases | 🔴 26 Sales

Senate: 1 | House: 49

Most Active Tickers:

🟢 Bought: GOOGL ×3, MSFT ×3, CB ×2, META ×2, NVDA ×2
🔴 Sold: AAPL ×2, AMZN ×2, CARR ×2, LLY ×2, MSFT ×2

Recent Notable Trades:

🔴 CARR sold by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
🟢 CB bought by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
🟢 CB bought by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
🔴 PINS sold by Christian Menefee (D-H) — $15,001 - $50,000

—

Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant

02 — TODAY'S PREDICTIONS

🎯 Ticker Momentum

Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.

#	Ticker	Score	Daily Dir	Daily Conf	Daily AUC	Weekly Dir	Weekly Conf	Weekly AUC	Monthly Dir	Monthly Conf	Monthly AUC	MR Q	Regime	Val	Coverage
1	BIO	100	📉 ↓	68.9%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
2	COO	100	📈 ↑	95.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
3	CPT	100	📉 ↓	75.1%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
4	HUBB	100	📉 ↓	75.1%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
5	KEY	100	📉 ↓	75.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
6	WTW	100	📉 ↓	86.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
7	BAC	100	📈 ↑	95.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
8	FFIV	100	📉 ↓	58.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
9	ODFL	100	📉 ↓	58.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
10	PAYC	100	📉 ↓	58.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
11	PNW	100	📉 ↓	75.1%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
12	WFC	100	📉 ↓	64.5%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
13	APH	100	📉 ↓	64.5%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3

Want more detail? See all 600+ predictions with live updates.

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Lower Confidence Picks (calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)

#	Ticker	Score	Daily Dir	Daily Conf	Daily AUC	Weekly Dir	Weekly Conf	Weekly AUC	Monthly Dir	Monthly Conf	Monthly AUC	MR Q	Regime	Val	Coverage
1	MTCH	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
2	SWK	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
3	TXT	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
4	ICE	100	📈 ↑	38.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
5	IFF	100	📈 ↑	38.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
6	JNJ	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
7	SWKS	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3

📖 Legend

⚡ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%

📈 ↑ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum

📉 ↓ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum

Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting

AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)

Val: Causal validity grade (A–F) — statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal | C = moderate | D = 25% size | F = skipped by trading engine

MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold — potential bounce candidate | Q4 Mildly oversold | Q3 Neutral | Q2 Mildly overbought | Q1 Most overbought — potential fade candidate

Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend Bull / Bear / Neutral

Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)

🟢 Green rows: High confidence (≥60%)

🔴 Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)

Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41% (calibrated confidence reflects this)

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⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

📊 MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values. They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.

💰 FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.

🚫 NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.

🤖 AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.

📈 SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.

📊 DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.

⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.

👤 INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
For questions or concerns, contact: dave@moneysignals.us