Generated: 2026-07-23 05:36:04 EST
01 — MODEL SCORECARD
How Our Picks Did — Wednesday, Jul 22
6/10 correct — 60%
BULLISH calls 60%
| Ticker |
Predicted |
Conf |
Actual |
Result |
Return |
| JNJ |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+2.00% |
| OMC |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+0.21% |
| CAH |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-2.88% |
| D |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+1.78% |
| CSX |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+0.08% |
| MMM |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
FLAT |
✗ |
+0.00% |
| AAPX |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-1.09% |
| AMD |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+1.45% |
| CMCSA |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-1.22% |
| PPL |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+1.95% |
🎯 CORE ENTITY TRACKER
Key individuals and organizations driving markets today
🇺🇸 US Political:
- 🔴 Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] — 6 mentions, 5 sources
How Trump Is Getting Richer as President
- ⚪ Marco Rubio [EEM, FXI, KWEB] — 1 mention, 1 source
Houthis claim strikes on Saudi Arabian oil tankers as Rubio says Iran not r...
🌍 Geopolitical:
- 🟡 Mohammed bin Salman [USO, XLE, XOM, CVX] — 4 mentions, 3 sources
US signs landmark nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia
🏛️ Institutions:
- ⚪ Federal Reserve [SPY, TLT, GLD, QQQ] — 1 mention, 1 source
Kevin Warsh has homed in on three key phrases. How Fed watchers interpret t...
Signal strength: 🔴 high (5+ mentions or corroborated) 🟡 medium (2+ mentions) ⚪ low
📅 Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.
🎯 ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)
A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 → buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.
Signal state (as of 2026-07-22 close):
- SPY — open hold window, day 2 of 5 (fired 2026-07-20). Entering mid-window was not part of the validated timing — informational only.
- IWM — open hold window, day 2 of 5 (fired 2026-07-20). Entering mid-window was not part of the validated timing — informational only.
- VTI — open hold window, day 2 of 5 (fired 2026-07-20). Entering mid-window was not part of the validated timing — informational only.
- XLY — no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 34 trading days ago)
Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):
- SPY — 266 trades since 1993: 65.4% win vs 58.0% above-trend base · +0.57% avg per 5-day trade
- IWM — 192 trades since 2000: 62.5% win vs 53.2% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
- VTI — 191 trades since 2001: 64.9% win vs 57.7% above-trend base · +0.47% avg per 5-day trade
- XLY — 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.1% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
⚠️ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated — simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was −8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.
🎥 FINANCE YOUTUBE (what independent analysts are arguing)
Curated synthesis of independent finance and macro YouTubers we track. These are THEIR views — attributed, not ours — and are NOT graded signals: we log the falsifiable calls and will score them over time. Idea sourcing and context, not a validated edge, not financial advice.
This week: 8 video(s) from 2 creator(s). Macro tilt 0 bullish / 6 bearish / 1 neutral / 1 mixed.
Recurring themes: insider-selling (×3), retail-leverage-trap, index-concentration-risk, leveraged-etf-mechanical-selling, financial-nihilism
Creators lean bearish: TSM (1ch), BX (1ch), GLW (1ch), NASDAQ (1ch)
Latest takes:
- Patrick Boyle (BEARISH): The World's Best Stock Market Is Also Crashing! — South Korea's stock market (KOSPI) has delivered extraordinary returns (+76% last year, +112% YTD to peak) driven by two mega-cap chip stocks (Samsung and SK…
- Casual Finance (BEARISH): The IPO Boom Is the Danger Sign — The speaker argues that IPO booms are a historically reliable warning sign preceding major financial bubbles and market crashes. Using the 2007 Blackstone IP…
- Casual Finance (BEARISH): if ai so good... why everyone selling? — Market professionals sell at market peaks when optimism is highest and retail investors are most eager to buy, as evidenced by IPO activity surging during bo…
Falsifiable calls we're tracking:
- Casual Finance — stock market / financial bubble BEARISH (open-ended): IPO booms precede major market crashes and financial crises, suggesting current elevated IPO activity signals an impending downturn
- Casual Finance — equity markets / market top BEARISH (open-ended): IPO activity and professional selling surge at market peaks when optimism is highest, signaling that retail investors are being sold the top
⚠️ Third-party opinions, tracked and attributed — not MoneySignals signals and not yet graded. We surface them for context and will score their accuracy as the calls resolve. Not financial advice.
🎯 MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS
📰 Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:
🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN
🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD
🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN
🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD
🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD
🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN
📊 Ticker Signal Summary:
- 🟢 Bullish: GLD (Related to) ×5, XLE (Related to) ×3, DFEN (Related to) ×3, NVDA (Related to) ×3, MSFT (Related to) ×3, GOOGL (Related to) ×3
- 🔴 Bearish: TLT (Related to) ×2
- ⚪ Mixed: DJT (Related to) ×3, USO (Related to) ×2, TSLA (Related to) ×1, XOM (Related to) ×1
🧠 MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES
PART 1 - TOP STORIES SUMMARY:
- Risk-Off Meets Selective Risk-On: The dominant narrative today is a split market personality — crypto fear sits deep in "Fear" territory (31/100), model predictions skew bearish (12 vs 8 bullish calls), yet news sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish across major tickers. This divergence suggests institutional money is rotating *selectively* rather than fleeing broadly, favoring hard assets and established tech over growth/speculative plays.
- Hard Assets & Defense in Demand: XLE, GLD, and DFEN all carry unanimous bullish news signals (3B/0b each), aligning with sector momentum in Independent Power Producers (+3.3%). The convergence of energy, gold, and defense bullishness points to geopolitical/macro uncertainty driving the rotation — traders are hedging while selectively buying quality.
- Tech Is Bifurcating: NVDA, MSFT, and GOOGL show bullish news momentum, and Technology Hardware leads sector performance (+4.6%), yet Systems Software is the *worst* performing sub-sector (-2.6%). This is a critical split — hardware and AI infrastructure are winning while legacy software stacks lag. The market is rewarding picks-and-shovels AI plays over broad software exposure.
PART 2 - SHORT-TERM OPPORTUNITIES:
- Signal Convergence Alert — Defensive Value: Model predictions show JNJ (95% bullish) and D [Dominion Energy] (95% bullish) at the top of conviction rankings. Combined with the broader fear environment (crypto at 31) and strong energy/utilities sector tailwinds, these high-conviction defensive names are well-positioned. When fear dominates crypto markets, capital historically rotates toward dividend-paying defensives — this is that setup.
- NVDA — Hardware Momentum + News Alignment: NVDA benefits from *both* bullish news sentiment (2B/0b) *and* the top-performing GICS sector (Technology Hardware +4.6%). While model conviction is moderate (not in top 5), the sector tailwind is the strongest in today's tape. Watch for continuation into the close; any dip is likely a buy given infrastructure AI spending narratives remain intact.
- XLE — Triple Signal Stack: XLE carries the strongest news signal of the day (3B/0b bullish), sector momentum in energy traders is positive (+3.3%), and macro fear typically supports commodity/energy assets. This is the cleanest multi-signal alignment in today's data. Short-term traders should watch for an entry on any intraday pullback.
- GLD — Contrarian Macro Play: GLD at 3B/0b bullish news in a fear environment (crypto 31/100) is textbook safe-haven behavior. Gold tends to outperform when crypto fear spikes, as retail exits digital assets and seeks store-of-value alternatives. This is the strongest contrarian-meets-momentum setup today.
- Avoid or Short — DIS & Systems Software Exposure: DIS carries an 86% bearish model prediction — the highest bearish conviction in today's dataset — with no offsetting bullish news signals. Combined with Systems Software being the worst-performing sector (-2.6%), any names with heavy software/media overlap face compounding headwinds. DIS is the clearest high-conviction avoid/short candidate today.
📆 Economic Calendar
No economic events scheduled. Market may be closed or holiday.
📊 PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS
Latest Options Activity: 2026-07-22
Market Sentiment Interpretation:
🐻⚠️ Moderately Bearish - Elevated put activity
Key Ratios:
- TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.010
Overall market sentiment - 🐻📉 Bearish (Put buying > Call buying - Downside protection)
- EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.670
Individual stock sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.060
Index options sentiment - 🐻📉 Bearish (Put buying > Call buying - Downside protection)
- CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.710
Volatility sentiment - 🐻⚠️ Bearish (VIX Call buying > VIX Put buying - Volatility expected)
💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:
- Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
- All key market sentiment indicators
03 — MARKET SENTIMENT
📊 FEAR & GREED INDEX
Data Collected: 2026-07-23 05:36:02
🏛️ Stock Market: 43/100 - FEAR 🟡
💡 Pessimistic sentiment
₿ Crypto Market: 31/100 - FEAR 🟡
💡 Fear & Greed Insights:
- Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
- Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
- Use as contrarian indicator for market timing
🟠 Reddit Trending Tickers:
- GOOG: 451 mentions, 4,310 engagement
- MU: 335 mentions, 1,304 engagement
- SPY: 330 mentions, 969 engagement
- GOOGL: 287 mentions, 2,330 engagement
- SPCX: 267 mentions, 953 engagement
- MSFT: 246 mentions, 3,341 engagement
- TSLA: 238 mentions, 813 engagement
- NOW: 234 mentions, 775 engagement
- NVDA: 173 mentions, 3,153 engagement
- IBM: 135 mentions, 497 engagement
- AMD: 127 mentions, 2,718 engagement
- RDDT: 117 mentions, 1,230 engagement
- QQQ: 116 mentions, 271 engagement
- SMCI: 108 mentions, 363 engagement
- SNDK: 77 mentions, 272 engagement
🔴 YouTube Trending Finance:
- AMD: 1 views, 0 engagement — AMD Massive Deal, Google & Tesla Earnings Tonight | Market Monitor
🔥 Cross-Platform Buzz (Reddit + YouTube):
🌍 TRENDING TOPICS (4 sources)
What people are searching, watching, and sharing today
🔍 Google Trending Searches:
- red sox (20000+ searches) — How Red Sox win streak impacts trade deadline, playoff race,
- lynx vs storm (2000+ searches) — Lynx 105-102 Storm (Jul 20, 2026) Game Recap
- capital one settlement payment delay (2000+ searches) — Capital One $425 million settlement payouts delayed after ap
- red sox score (2000+ searches) — MLB trade deadline 2026: Early intel from Olney, Passan
- chick fil a data breach (2000+ searches) — Chick-fil-A security incident may have exposed some customer
- david gabriel georges (2000+ searches) — Tennessee football recruiting: 2027 Five-star RB David Gabri
- mercury vs sparks (2000+ searches) — WNBA Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Wednesday, July 22
- bald eagle jackie rescue (2000+ searches) — Bald eagle Jackie in critical condition after rescue near Bi
- recreativo huelva - real betis (1000+ searches) — Isco se queda fuera de la lista de Pellegrini para el Colomb
- maidenhead united vs wolves (1000+ searches) — Watch Maidenhead friendly on Wolves TV | Men's First-Team |
📖 Wikipedia Most-Viewed:
- The Odyssey (2026 film) (718,589 page views)
- Kaylee Hottle (508,898 page views)
- Lamine Yamal (374,414 page views)
- Andy Burnham (333,132 page views)
- Kevin Keegan (298,369 page views)
- Odyssey (246,734 page views)
- .xyz (219,812 page views)
- Shakira (203,437 page views)
- 2026 FIFA World Cup (188,241 page views)
- Avengers: Doomsday (162,789 page views)
🔶 Hacker News Top Stories:
- Show HN: Bento - An entire PowerPoint in one HTML file (edit+view+data+collab) (559 pts, 129 comments)
- Terrence Tao's ChatGPT Conversation about the Jacobian Conjecture Counterexample (452 pts, 251 comments)
- John C. Dvorak has died (332 pts, 73 comments)
- Passkeys were invented by engineers with zero understanding of consumer brain (283 pts, 368 comments)
- Are AI Labs Pelicanmaxxing? (279 pts, 117 comments)
- GigaToken: ~1000x faster Language model tokenization (275 pts, 50 comments)
- The startup's Postgres survival guide (275 pts, 151 comments)
- Making (231 pts, 97 comments)
▶️ YouTube Viral:
- Watters: This is an ALL-OUT WAR! — Fox News (870,169 views)
- Allah Tala ke madad 😭 #ytshorts #news #prayer#today#trending #emotional#youtubeshorts#shor — Deen Spark (785,632 views)
- DEVELOPING: US drives strikes DEEPER into Iran — Fox News (297,399 views)
- NEW: US targets Iranian aircraft hangars, drone storage sites on 11th night of strikes — LiveNOW from FOX (286,407 views)
- Watters: It is ON THE BRINK… #news #foxnews #fox #us #breakingnews — Fox News (286,396 views)
- Iran Attack On America: Iran-US War | Trump | Khamenei | IRGC | Hormuz | Mojtaba | Middle — TV9 Bharatvarsh (264,782 views)
🔬 CAUSAL VALIDATION
Grade distribution across 5 validated models: F:5
High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) — predictions have statistically confirmed signal
⚠️ 5 low-validity models (D/F): BAC, DIS, IFF, ODFL, SWKS
Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.
🏛️ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES
📊 50 trades in last 14 days
🟢 45 Purchases | 🔴 5 Sales
Senate: 50 | House: 0
Most Active Tickers:
- 🟢 Bought: AAPL ×2, ASML ×2, AZN ×2, ABBV ×1, ABNB ×1
- 🔴 Sold: ABT ×1, ACM ×1, AMGN ×1, AMT ×1, AVGO ×1
Recent Notable Trades:
- 🟢 AAPL bought by Alan Armstrong (R-S) — $250,001 - $500,000
- 🟢 ABBV bought by Alan Armstrong (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 ABT sold by Alan Armstrong (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 ACM sold by Alan Armstrong (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🟢 AMAT bought by Alan Armstrong (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🟢 AMD bought by Alan Armstrong (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 AMGN sold by Alan Armstrong (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🟢 AMZN bought by Alan Armstrong (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
—
Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant
02 — TODAY'S PREDICTIONS
🎯 Ticker Momentum
Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.
| # |
Ticker |
Score |
Daily Dir |
Daily Conf |
Daily AUC |
Weekly Dir |
Weekly Conf |
Weekly AUC |
Monthly Dir |
Monthly Conf |
Monthly AUC |
MR Q |
Regime |
Val |
Coverage |
| 1 |
BIO |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
77.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 2 |
CPT |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
58.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 3 |
NI |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
58.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 4 |
JNJ |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
95.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 5 |
DIS |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
86.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 6 |
PTC |
99 |
📉 ↓ |
58.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 7 |
AAPX |
95 |
📈 ↑ |
95.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 8 |
D |
95 |
📈 ↑ |
95.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
Lower Confidence Picks
(calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)
| # |
Ticker |
Score |
Daily Dir |
Daily Conf |
Daily AUC |
Weekly Dir |
Weekly Conf |
Weekly AUC |
Monthly Dir |
Monthly Conf |
Monthly AUC |
MR Q |
Regime |
Val |
Coverage |
| 1 |
KEY |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 2 |
SWK |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
48.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 3 |
WAB |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 4 |
BAC |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 5 |
FFIV |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
48.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 6 |
IFF |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
48.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 7 |
ODFL |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
48.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 8 |
SWKS |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 9 |
USB |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
48.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 10 |
WFC |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
48.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 11 |
BBY |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 12 |
INTU |
99 |
📉 ↓ |
48.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
📖 Legend
⚡ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%
📈 ↑ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum
📉 ↓ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum
Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting
AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)
Val: Causal validity grade (A–F) — statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal | C = moderate | D = 25% size | F = skipped by trading engine
MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold — potential bounce candidate |
Q4 Mildly oversold |
Q3 Neutral |
Q2 Mildly overbought |
Q1 Most overbought — potential fade candidate
Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend
Bull / Bear / Neutral
Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)
🟢 Green rows: High confidence (≥60%)
🔴 Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)
Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41%
(calibrated confidence reflects this)
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⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
📊 MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values.
They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.
💰 FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.
🚫 NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.
🤖 AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.
📈 SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.
📊 DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.
⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.
👤 INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
For questions or concerns, contact: dave@moneysignals.us