Generated: 2026-07-21 05:36:06 EST
01 β MODEL SCORECARD
How Our Picks Did — Monday, Jul 20
4/10 correct — 40%
BEARISH calls 67% vs BULLISH 29%
| Ticker |
Predicted |
Conf |
Actual |
Result |
Return |
| XLE |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+0.45% |
| HD |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-1.72% |
| MO |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+0.61% |
| SO |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-0.88% |
| EXPD |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-2.97% |
| JNJ |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-1.67% |
| AAPX |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-4.19% |
| DLTR |
↓ BEARISH |
86.4% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
+0.35% |
| AMT |
↓ BEARISH |
86.4% |
↓ BEARISH |
✓ |
-1.76% |
| ALB |
↓ BEARISH |
86.4% |
↓ BEARISH |
✓ |
-2.14% |
04 β NEWS & EVENTS
π° MARKET-RELEVANT NEWS
πΌ Business & Markets:
πΊπΈ US News:
π World News:
π» Technology:
π 7 of 32 headlines shown
π― CORE ENTITY TRACKER
Key individuals and organizations driving markets today
πΊπΈ US Political:
- π΄ Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] β 8 mentions, 6 sources
Trump slaps 50% tariffs on Canada and Carney vows to 'intensify' trade talk...
- βͺ Scott Bessent [TLT, UUP, GLD] β 1 mention, 1 source
Jamie Dimon says he wouldnβt buy Treasurys. βI donβt understand the upside....
π Geopolitical:
- π‘ Mohammed bin Salman [USO, XLE, XOM, CVX] β 2 mentions, 2 sources
Yemen's Houthis announce 'maritime embargo' on Saudi Arabia
- βͺ Benjamin Netanyahu [XLE, ITA, GLD, USO] β 1 mention, 1 source
Mamdani says he takes Netanyahuβs ICC arrest warrant βseriouslyβ
- βͺ Ali Khamenei [USO, XLE, GLD] β 1 mention, 1 source
U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators p...
π’ Corporate Leaders:
- π‘ Jamie Dimon [JPM, XLF, KRE] β 1 mention, 1 source β
LOBBY
Jamie Dimon says he wouldnβt buy Treasurys. βI donβt understand the upside....
Signal strength: π΄ high (5+ mentions or corroborated) π‘ medium (2+ mentions) βͺ low
π
Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.
π― ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)
A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 β buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.
Signal state (as of 2026-07-20 close):
- SPY β π FIRED at the last close (RSI2 9.5). The validated entry is the NEXT session's open, exiting at the close 5 trading days after the fire.
- IWM β π FIRED at the last close (RSI2 8.7). The validated entry is the NEXT session's open, exiting at the close 5 trading days after the fire.
- VTI β π FIRED at the last close (RSI2 8.6). The validated entry is the NEXT session's open, exiting at the close 5 trading days after the fire.
- XLY β no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 32 trading days ago)
Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):
- SPY β 266 trades since 1993: 65.4% win vs 58.0% above-trend base Β· +0.57% avg per 5-day trade
- IWM β 192 trades since 2000: 62.5% win vs 53.2% above-trend base Β· +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
- VTI β 191 trades since 2001: 64.9% win vs 57.7% above-trend base Β· +0.47% avg per 5-day trade
- XLY β 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.1% above-trend base Β· +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
β οΈ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated β simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was β8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.
π‘ Live state, per-timing splits and every caveat via the free API:
GET /api/v1/signals/etf-pullback β included with the free key every subscriber already has.
π₯ FINANCE YOUTUBE (what independent analysts are arguing)
Curated synthesis of independent finance and macro YouTubers we track. These are THEIR views β attributed, not ours β and are NOT graded signals: we log the falsifiable calls and will score them over time. Idea sourcing and context, not a validated edge, not financial advice.
This week: 9 video(s) from 3 creator(s). Macro tilt 0 bullish / 6 bearish / 2 neutral / 1 mixed.
Recurring themes: insider-selling (Γ3), information-asymmetry (Γ2), valuation-disconnect (Γ2), ai-bubble (Γ2), ai-competition (Γ2)
Creators lean bearish: SPY (2ch), OPENAI (1ch), TSM (1ch), QQQ (1ch), GLW (1ch), NASDAQ (1ch)
Latest takes:
Falsifiable calls we're tracking:
- Casual Finance β recently-IPO'd high-valuation tech companies BEARISH (open-ended): companies going public at peak valuations represent poor risk-reward for public investors relative to informed insiders who are exiting
- Casual Finance β large-cap equities / high-growth stocks BEARISH (open-ended): Markets have priced in perfect outcomes with minimal room for positive surprises and substantial room for disappointment; insider selling pressure indicatesβ¦
β οΈ Third-party opinions, tracked and attributed β not MoneySignals signals and not yet graded. We surface them for context and will score their accuracy as the calls resolve. Not financial advice.
π― MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS
π° Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:
π’ NVDA
π’ XLE, GLD, DFEN
π’ XLE, GLD, DFEN
π’ TIP, GLD Β· π΄ TLT
π Ticker Signal Summary:
- π’ Bullish: GLD (Related to) Γ3, XLE (Related to) Γ3, DFEN (Related to) Γ2, NVDA (Related to) Γ2, MSFT (Related to) Γ1, TIP (Related to) Γ1
- π΄ Bearish: TLT (Related to) Γ1
- βͺ Mixed: FXI (Related to) Γ1, BABA (Related to) Γ1, KWEB (Related to) Γ1, USO (Related to) Γ1
π§ MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES
PART 1 - TOP STORIES SUMMARY:
- Defensive & Safe-Haven Rotation Underway: The dominant narrative today centers on risk-off positioning. With Crypto Fear & Greed sitting at a deeply fearful 25/100, model predictions skewing 8 bullish vs. 12 bearish, and materials/industrial sectors (Steel -2.3%, Construction Materials -2.1%) leading declines, capital appears to be rotating away from cyclicals and risk assets. This is reinforced by strong bullish signals in GLD (3 bullish mentions, no bearish) β gold is acting as the primary safe-haven destination today.
- AI & Tech Sentiment Remains Resilient Despite Broader Caution: Despite the bearish macro lean, NVDA, MSFT, and AMD are all carrying clean bullish news signals with zero bearish mentions. This divergence suggests institutional money is selectively defending high-conviction tech positions rather than executing broad-based de-risking. The AI infrastructure theme continues to attract news flow even in a risk-off tape.
- Defense & Energy as Geopolitical Hedges: DFEN (2 bullish mentions) and XLE (2 bullish mentions) are emerging as a secondary theme β geopolitical uncertainty or macro stress appears to be driving interest in hard assets and defense simultaneously, complementing the gold bid.
PART 2 - SHORT-TERM OPPORTUNITIES:
- GLD β Highest Conviction Long Today. Three bullish news mentions with zero bearish counterweight, crypto fear at 25 reinforcing traditional safe-haven demand, and a broader risk-off model skew all point the same direction. GLD is the single cleanest multi-signal convergence trade on the board today. Traders should watch for momentum continuation into the close.
- COO & JNJ β Model Conviction Plays in Defensive Healthcare. Both carry 95% bullish model probability β the highest scores on the entire prediction board. In a risk-off environment where defensives typically outperform cyclicals, healthcare names with this level of model confidence deserve serious attention. JNJ in particular aligns with the broader safe-haven narrative. Low-risk entry for swing traders seeking sector-appropriate positioning.
- NVDA β Bullish Signal With a Caveat. Clean bullish news flow (2B/0b) and strong social momentum, but the overall bearish model skew (12 bearish predictions) warrants sizing discipline. NVDA remains a high-quality long but position sizing should reflect macro headwinds β this is a "hold or scale carefully" rather than aggressive add situation. Watch for intraday dips as better entries.
- Distillers & Vintners / Broadline Retail Sector Rotation Play. With Distillers & Vintners +2.2% and Broadline Retail +1.5% leading GICS momentum, there's a quiet consumer staples/discretionary bifurcation story here. Alcohol/beverage names tend to be recession-resilient, making this move consistent with the defensive rotation theme. Traders without single-stock exposure can consider sector ETFs aligned with these groups as a cleaner expression.
- WDC & DIS β Short-Side Opportunities. WDC carries an 86% bearish model prediction β the strongest bearish signal on the board β while DIS sits at 75% bearish. With no
π Economic Calendar
No economic events scheduled. Market may be closed or holiday.
π PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS
Latest Options Activity: 2026-07-20
Market Sentiment Interpretation:
π»β οΈ Moderately Bearish - Elevated put activity
Key Ratios:
- TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.000
Overall market sentiment - πβοΈ Neutral
- EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.660
Individual stock sentiment - πβ
Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.070
Index options sentiment - π»π Bearish (Put buying > Call buying - Downside protection)
- CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.630
Volatility sentiment - π»β οΈ Bearish (VIX Call buying > VIX Put buying - Volatility expected)
π‘ SECRET TIER ACCESS:
- Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
- All key market sentiment indicators
03 β MARKET SENTIMENT
π FEAR & GREED INDEX
Data Collected: 2026-07-21 05:36:04
ποΈ Stock Market: 36/100 - FEAR π‘
π‘ Pessimistic sentiment
βΏ Crypto Market: 25/100 - FEAR π‘
π‘ Fear & Greed Insights:
- Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
- Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
- Use as contrarian indicator for market timing
π Reddit Trending Tickers:
- SPY: 283 mentions, 1,175 engagement
- MU: 245 mentions, 916 engagement
- MSFT: 181 mentions, 628 engagement
- SPCX: 174 mentions, 1,171 engagement
- QQQ: 83 mentions, 244 engagement
- TSLA: 78 mentions, 327 engagement
- SNDK: 72 mentions, 297 engagement
- ORCL: 71 mentions, 235 engagement
- DTE: 66 mentions, 394 engagement
- NVDA: 65 mentions, 237 engagement
- NBIS: 56 mentions, 1,353 engagement
- GOOG: 53 mentions, 264 engagement
- AMD: 47 mentions, 192 engagement
- GOOGL: 45 mentions, 512 engagement
- RKLB: 43 mentions, 1,345 engagement
π TRENDING TOPICS (4 sources)
What people are searching, watching, and sharing today
π Google Trending Searches:
- kwwl weather (100000+ searches) β TRACKING: Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 pm
- ryan clark (5000+ searches) β ESPN cuts ties with NFL analyst Ryan Clark - The Athletic
- tornado watch (5000+ searches) β FIRST ALERT: Tornado Watch issued as storms move into easter
- matisse thybulle (5000+ searches) β Sources: Matisse Thybulle agrees to 1-year deal with Lakers
- spacex stock price (2000+ searches) β 3 stats that explain SpaceX's $1 trillion stock wipeout
- politics (2000+ searches) β In Maine Senate Race, Democrats Go From Chaos to Coronation
- coffee consumption (2000+ searches) β Five Cups of Coffee a Day Is Fine for Most Adults, Heart Ass
- dow jones industrial average (2000+ searches) β Stock Market Today: Nasdaq, S&P 500 Edge Higher; Oil Prices
- david hearn pool liner case (2000+ searches) β Reflecting Pool repairs could undermine case against former
- kurt kromm ford aramark cookie dispute (2000+ searches) β Exclusive | Ford worker who was fired after being falsely ac
π Wikipedia Most-Viewed:
- Lamine Yamal (1,200,352 page views)
- The Odyssey (2026 film) (1,108,567 page views)
- 2026 FIFA World Cup (815,930 page views)
- Lionel Messi (766,741 page views)
- List of FIFA World Cup finals (679,666 page views)
- Shakira (575,719 page views)
- FIFA World Cup (505,459 page views)
- Ferran Torres (433,059 page views)
- Nico Williams (421,964 page views)
- Ryan Fox (379,791 page views)
πΆ Hacker News Top Stories:
- Chinaβs open-weights AI strategy is winning (807 pts, 663 comments)
- Airport Simulator (611 pts, 119 comments)
- Hacker wipes Romania's land registry database (518 pts, 287 comments)
- China's open-weights AI strategy is winning (472 pts, 401 comments)
- Exploit brokers pay $500k for WordPress RCEs. I found one with GPT5.6 and $25 (341 pts, 192 comments)
- Kimi Work (265 pts, 130 comments)
- Jelly UI: Soft-body physics for native HTML form controls (236 pts, 97 comments)
- LEDsβ potential to save our night skies (189 pts, 137 comments)
βΆοΈ YouTube Viral:
- Today School lunch box packing β¨ | #meeranaveen # #trending #shorts #minivlog #shortvideo β Meera Naveen (632,655 views)
- Cockroach Janta Party Protest LIVE | Jantar Mantar | Sonam Wangchuk Updates LIVE | Abhijee β Hindustan Times (569,108 views)
- Today, Father Cooked & Ate Chinki's Beloved Hen! π²π #shorts #viral β CHINKI FACTZ (523,767 views)
- Allah Tala ke madad π #ytshorts #news #prayer #today #trending #emotional #shorts β Crazy Adventures (471,280 views)
- US Vs Iran War Updates : ΰ€ΰ€°ΰ€Ύΰ€¨ ΰ€ΰ€Ύ US ΰ€¬ΰ₯ΰ€Έ ΰ€ͺΰ€° ΰ€ΰ€¬ΰ₯βΰ€ΰ€Ύ... 200 ΰ€Έΰ₯ΰ€¨ΰ€Ώΰ€ ΰ€ΰ₯ΰ€¦?! Trump | Khamenei β TV9 Bharatvarsh (440,371 views)
- Allah ki madad #india #ytshorts #news #prayer #today #trending #emotional #youtubeshorts β Spark Shorts (375,737 views)
π¬ CAUSAL VALIDATION
Grade distribution across 6 validated models: F:6
High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) β predictions have statistically confirmed signal
β οΈ 6 low-validity models (D/F): BAC, DIS, IFF, ODFL, SWKS, WDC
Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.
ποΈ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES
π 50 trades in last 14 days
π’ 13 Purchases | π΄ 37 Sales
Senate: 10 | House: 40
Most Active Tickers:
- π’ Bought: SPCX Γ1, ACN Γ1, AMCR Γ1, ANET Γ1, APH Γ1
- π΄ Sold: NOK Γ4, CSX Γ2, BAC Γ1, GE Γ1, ADBE Γ1
Recent Notable Trades:
- π΄ NOK sold by Laurel M. Lee (R-H) β $15,001 - $50,000
- π’ SPCX bought by William R. Timmons IV (R-H) β $50,001 - $100,000
- π΄ AWK sold by Tommy Tuberville (R-S) β $15,001 - $50,000
- π΄ CSX sold by Tommy Tuberville (R-S) β $15,001 - $50,000
- π΄ DUK sold by Tommy Tuberville (R-S) β $15,001 - $50,000
- π΄ LMT sold by Tommy Tuberville (R-S) β $15,001 - $50,000
- π΄ MA sold by Tommy Tuberville (R-S) β $15,001 - $50,000
- π΄ NEE sold by Tommy Tuberville (R-S) β $15,001 - $50,000
β
Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant
02 β TODAY'S PREDICTIONS
🎯 Ticker Momentum
Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.
| # |
Ticker |
Score |
Daily Dir |
Daily Conf |
Daily AUC |
Weekly Dir |
Weekly Conf |
Weekly AUC |
Monthly Dir |
Monthly Conf |
Monthly AUC |
MR Q |
Regime |
Val |
Coverage |
| 1 |
BIO |
100 |
π β |
77.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 2 |
COO |
100 |
π β |
95.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 3 |
NI |
100 |
π β |
73.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 4 |
WDC |
100 |
π β |
86.4% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 5 |
BAC |
100 |
π β |
58.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 6 |
JNJ |
100 |
π β |
95.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 7 |
WFC |
100 |
π β |
64.1% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 8 |
DIS |
100 |
π β |
75.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 9 |
URI |
100 |
π β |
75.1% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
Lower Confidence Picks
(calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)
| # |
Ticker |
Score |
Daily Dir |
Daily Conf |
Daily AUC |
Weekly Dir |
Weekly Conf |
Weekly AUC |
Monthly Dir |
Monthly Conf |
Monthly AUC |
MR Q |
Regime |
Val |
Coverage |
| 1 |
CPT |
100 |
π β |
48.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 2 |
KEY |
100 |
π β |
33.7% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 3 |
SWK |
100 |
π β |
48.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 4 |
WAB |
100 |
π β |
33.7% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 5 |
FFIV |
100 |
π β |
48.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 6 |
IFF |
100 |
π β |
33.7% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 7 |
ODFL |
100 |
π β |
48.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 8 |
SWKS |
100 |
π β |
33.7% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
F |
1/3 |
| 9 |
USB |
100 |
π β |
38.4% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 10 |
BBY |
100 |
π β |
45.4% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 11 |
MCHP |
100 |
π β |
48.3% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
0.0% |
β |
β |
β |
N/A |
1/3 |
π Legend
β‘ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%
π β BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum
π β BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum
Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting
AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)
Val: Causal validity grade (AβF) β statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal | C = moderate | D = 25% size | F = skipped by trading engine
MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold β potential bounce candidate |
Q4 Mildly oversold |
Q3 Neutral |
Q2 Mildly overbought |
Q1 Most overbought β potential fade candidate
Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend
Bull / Bear / Neutral
Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)
π’ Green rows: High confidence (β₯60%)
π΄ Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)
Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41%
(calibrated confidence reflects this)
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β οΈ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
π MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values.
They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.
π° FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.
π« NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.
π€ AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.
π SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.
π DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.
βοΈ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.
π€ INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
For questions or concerns, contact: dave@moneysignals.us