Generated: 2026-07-20 05:35:32 EST
01 — MODEL SCORECARD
How Our Picks Did — Friday, Jul 17
4/10 correct — 40%
BULLISH calls 40%
| Ticker |
Predicted |
Conf |
Actual |
Result |
Return |
| JNJ |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+1.23% |
| NVR |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-3.15% |
| HD |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-2.63% |
| DGX |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+0.61% |
| AMGN |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-1.42% |
| CAH |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-0.09% |
| AAPX |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+0.17% |
| CHD |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-1.06% |
| AAPL |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↑ BULLISH |
✓ |
+0.14% |
| VMC |
↑ BULLISH |
95.0% |
↓ BEARISH |
✗ |
-1.75% |
04 — NEWS & EVENTS
📰 MARKET-RELEVANT NEWS
💼 Business & Markets:
🌍 World News:
💻 Technology:
📊 7 of 32 headlines shown
🎯 CORE ENTITY TRACKER
Key individuals and organizations driving markets today
🇺🇸 US Political:
- 🟡 Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] — 2 mentions, 1 source
'I just wanted to give up': Disabled patients face Medicaid denials from IT...
- ⚪ Marco Rubio [EEM, FXI, KWEB] — 1 mention, 1 source
Rubio: US ‘open to diplomacy’ after ninth night of bombing Iran
🌍 Geopolitical:
- ⚪ Ali Khamenei [USO, XLE, GLD] — 1 mention, 1 source
Tehran and Washington Face a ‘Wake Up Moment’ Over the War
🏢 Corporate Leaders:
- 🟡 Jensen Huang [NVDA, AMD, TSM, SMCI] — 2 mentions, 2 sources
TSMC is accelerating Arizona factory buildout to capitalize on AI 'megatren...
🏛️ Institutions:
- ⚪ Federal Reserve [SPY, TLT, GLD, QQQ] — 1 mention, 1 source
Gold Steadies as Traders Assess Rates Path Amid US-Iran Conflict
Signal strength: 🔴 high (5+ mentions or corroborated) 🟡 medium (2+ mentions) ⚪ low
📅 Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.
🎯 ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)
A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 → buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.
Signal state (as of 2026-07-17 close):
- SPY — no fire (last: 2026-06-26, 14 trading days ago)
- IWM — no fire (last: 2026-07-08, 7 trading days ago)
- VTI — no fire (last: 2026-06-05, 28 trading days ago)
- XLY — no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 31 trading days ago)
No active fire — the normal state. Fires average 8-10 per year per ETF.
Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):
- SPY — 266 trades since 1993: 65.4% win vs 58.0% above-trend base · +0.57% avg per 5-day trade
- IWM — 192 trades since 2000: 62.5% win vs 53.2% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
- VTI — 191 trades since 2001: 64.9% win vs 57.7% above-trend base · +0.47% avg per 5-day trade
- XLY — 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.1% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
⚠️ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated — simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was −8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.
🎥 FINANCE YOUTUBE (what independent analysts are arguing)
Curated synthesis of independent finance and macro YouTubers we track. These are THEIR views — attributed, not ours — and are NOT graded signals: we log the falsifiable calls and will score them over time. Idea sourcing and context, not a validated edge, not financial advice.
This week: 7 video(s) from 3 creator(s). Macro tilt 0 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral / 1 mixed.
Recurring themes: ai-bubble (×2), ai-competition (×2), retail-leverage-trap, index-concentration-risk, leveraged-etf-mechanical-selling
Creators lean bearish: SPY (2ch), OPENAI (1ch), TSM (1ch), QQQ (1ch), GLW (1ch), NASDAQ (1ch)
Latest takes:
Falsifiable calls we're tracking:
- Casual Finance — AI capex sustainability NEUTRAL (open-ended): Major tech companies will continue massive AI capital spending ($725B+ annually) as a test of whether the AI trend is a genuine breakthrough versus a bubble
- Patrick Boyle — KOSPI further decline BEARISH (open-ended): If memory chip demand softens, the KOSPI will experience a brutal bust cycle amplified by leveraged ETF forced selling; the same mechanical rebalancing that…
⚠️ Third-party opinions, tracked and attributed — not MoneySignals signals and not yet graded. We surface them for context and will score their accuracy as the calls resolve. Not financial advice.
🎯 MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS
📰 Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:
🟢 DFEN, LMT, RTX, GLD
🟢 DFEN, GLD, XLE, VXX
🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD
🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD
🟢 DFEN, GLD, XLE, VXX
🟢 DFEN, GLD, XLE, VXX
📊 Ticker Signal Summary:
- 🟢 Bullish: GLD (Related to) ×6, XLE (Related to) ×6, DFEN (Related to) ×5, VXX (Related to) ×3, NVDA (Related to) ×2, MSFT (Related to) ×2
- 🔴 Bearish: TLT (Related to) ×1
- ⚪ Mixed: NFLX (Related to) ×1, AAPL (Related to) ×1
🧠 MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES
PART 1 - TOP STORIES SUMMARY:
- Risk-Off / Safe Haven Rotation Dominant: The strongest converging theme today is a clear flight to safety and hard assets. GLD (7 bullish mentions) leading news sentiment alongside VXX (volatility ETF, 4 bullish mentions) signals traders are actively hedging and rotating out of risk. Crypto Fear & Greed at 29/100 (Fear territory) reinforces this broad risk-averse posture across asset classes — this isn't isolated to one market.
- Defense & Energy as the "Risk-Off Trade of Choice": Unlike typical flight-to-cash episodes, today's rotation has a directional bias. XLE, DFEN, LMT, and RTX all showing bullish news momentum simultaneously suggests geopolitical/macro tension is the underlying driver — traders are buying *productive* safe havens (energy infrastructure, defense contractors) rather than just treasuries. Agricultural commodity WEAT adding to this narrative hints at supply chain or geopolitical disruption fears.
- Tech/Growth Under Pressure, Financials Mixed: Semiconductor sector leading bottom performers (-2.7%) despite NVDA appearing in bullish news (likely stock-specific catalyst). Meanwhile, model predictions show a deeply split financial sector — BAC and USB bullish but WFC and KEY bearish — suggesting selective stress rather than sector-wide distress.
PART 2 - SHORT-TERM OPPORTUNITIES:
- GLD — Highest Conviction Long: Strongest news signal of the day (7B/0b) intersecting with crypto fear (29/100), VXX strength, and a risk-off macro backdrop. When gold news dominance, volatility buying, AND cross-asset fear align simultaneously, gold tends to sustain momentum intraday. Watch for continuation above recent highs; dip-buyers likely active.
- LMT / RTX — Defense Pair Play: Both carrying bullish news signals with DFEN (defense sector ETF) also bullish — triple confirmation within the same GICS group. Geopolitical risk narratives driving this; these names tend to move together on macro headlines. LMT and RTX offer more liquidity for precise entries vs. the leveraged DFEN.
- JNJ — Model High-Conviction Defensive Long: Model predicts bullish at 95% confidence — the single highest conviction call in today's dataset. JNJ is a classic defensive/healthcare name perfectly suited to a risk-off environment. No conflicting bearish signals present. This is the cleanest model-backed trade today.
- XLE — Energy Sector Momentum Confluence: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing is a top industry performer (+2.7%) AND XLE carries 6 bullish news mentions. Sector momentum + news sentiment + macro (geopolitical/supply fears via WEAT) all pointing same direction. Strongest sector-level convergence trade today.
- WDC — Short/Avoid Signal: Model flags 86% bearish confidence — highest bearish conviction in the dataset. Semiconductors are simultaneously the worst-performing industry (-2.7%). Unlike NVDA which has a stock-specific bullish catalyst, WDC has no offsetting positive signals. Sector headwind + high-conviction bearish model = avoid or short opportunity for risk-tolerant traders.
📆 Economic Calendar
No economic events scheduled. Market may be closed or holiday.
📊 PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS
Latest Options Activity: 2026-07-16
Market Sentiment Interpretation:
🐻⚠️ Moderately Bearish - Elevated put activity
Key Ratios:
- TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.870
Overall market sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.670
Individual stock sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.980
Index options sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.250
Volatility sentiment - 🐻📉 Very Bearish (VIX Call buying >> VIX Put buying - High volatility expected)
💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:
- Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
- All key market sentiment indicators
03 — MARKET SENTIMENT
📊 FEAR & GREED INDEX
Data Collected: 2026-07-20 05:35:30
🏛️ Stock Market: 37/100 - FEAR 🟡
💡 Pessimistic sentiment
₿ Crypto Market: 29/100 - FEAR 🟡
💡 Fear & Greed Insights:
- Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
- Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
- Use as contrarian indicator for market timing
🔬 CAUSAL VALIDATION
Grade distribution across 6 validated models: F:6
High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) — predictions have statistically confirmed signal
⚠️ 6 low-validity models (D/F): BAC, DIS, IFF, ODFL, SWKS, WDC
Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.
🏛️ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES
📊 50 trades in last 14 days
🟢 12 Purchases | 🔴 33 Sales
Senate: 10 | House: 40
Most Active Tickers:
- 🟢 Bought: NVDA ×3, ESAB ×2, META ×1, USOU ×1, EQT ×1
- 🔴 Sold: META ×2, CDNS ×2, GOOGL ×2, JNJ ×2, MKL ×2
Recent Notable Trades:
- 🔴 AWK sold by Tommy Tuberville (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 CSX sold by Tommy Tuberville (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 DUK sold by Tommy Tuberville (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 LMT sold by Tommy Tuberville (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 MA sold by Tommy Tuberville (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 NEE sold by Tommy Tuberville (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 PFE sold by Tommy Tuberville (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 PG sold by Tommy Tuberville (R-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
—
Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant
02 — TODAY'S PREDICTIONS
🎯 Ticker Momentum
Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.
| # |
Ticker |
Score |
Daily Dir |
Daily Conf |
Daily AUC |
Weekly Dir |
Weekly Conf |
Weekly AUC |
Monthly Dir |
Monthly Conf |
Monthly AUC |
MR Q |
Regime |
Val |
Coverage |
| 1 |
BIO |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
77.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 2 |
CPT |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
58.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 3 |
KEY |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
58.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 4 |
WDC |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
86.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 5 |
JNJ |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
95.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 6 |
WFC |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
64.5% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
Lower Confidence Picks
(calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)
| # |
Ticker |
Score |
Daily Dir |
Daily Conf |
Daily AUC |
Weekly Dir |
Weekly Conf |
Weekly AUC |
Monthly Dir |
Monthly Conf |
Monthly AUC |
MR Q |
Regime |
Val |
Coverage |
| 1 |
COO |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 2 |
NI |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
48.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 3 |
SWK |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
48.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 4 |
WAB |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 5 |
BAC |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
38.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 6 |
FFIV |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 7 |
IFF |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 8 |
ODFL |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
48.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 9 |
SWKS |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 10 |
USB |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
38.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 11 |
BBY |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
48.6% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 12 |
DIS |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
38.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 13 |
MCHP |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 14 |
MNST |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
📖 Legend
⚡ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%
📈 ↑ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum
📉 ↓ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum
Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting
AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)
Val: Causal validity grade (A–F) — statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal | C = moderate | D = 25% size | F = skipped by trading engine
MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold — potential bounce candidate |
Q4 Mildly oversold |
Q3 Neutral |
Q2 Mildly overbought |
Q1 Most overbought — potential fade candidate
Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend
Bull / Bear / Neutral
Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)
🟢 Green rows: High confidence (≥60%)
🔴 Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)
Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41%
(calibrated confidence reflects this)
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⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
📊 MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values.
They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.
💰 FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.
🚫 NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.
🤖 AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.
📈 SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.
📊 DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.
⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.
👤 INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
For questions or concerns, contact: dave@moneysignals.us