Generated: 2026-07-15 05:37:36 EST
01 — MODEL SCORECARD
How Our Picks Did — Tuesday, Jul 14
5/10 correct — 50%
BEARISH calls 50%
| Ticker |
Predicted |
Conf |
Actual |
Result |
Return |
| WDC |
↓ BEARISH |
86.4% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
+1.40% |
| CHRW |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
+1.58% |
| AMT |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↓ BEARISH |
✓ |
-0.40% |
| CDW |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↓ BEARISH |
✓ |
-3.45% |
| AWK |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
+0.03% |
| BX |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
+2.06% |
| CCI |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↓ BEARISH |
✓ |
-0.99% |
| APO |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
+0.93% |
| ABT |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↓ BEARISH |
✓ |
-3.42% |
| CE |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↓ BEARISH |
✓ |
-0.35% |
🎯 CORE ENTITY TRACKER
Key individuals and organizations driving markets today
🇺🇸 US Political:
- 🔴 Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] — 13 mentions, 8 sources
Trump threatens to bomb bridges and power plants unless Iran resumes talks
Signal strength: 🔴 high (5+ mentions or corroborated) 🟡 medium (2+ mentions) ⚪ low
📅 Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.
🎯 ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)
A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 → buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.
Signal state (as of 2026-07-14 close):
- SPY — no fire (last: 2026-06-26, 11 trading days ago)
- IWM — open hold window, day 4 of 5 (fired 2026-07-08). Entering mid-window was not part of the validated timing — informational only.
- VTI — no fire (last: 2026-06-05, 25 trading days ago)
- XLY — no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 28 trading days ago)
Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):
- SPY — 266 trades since 1993: 65.4% win vs 58.0% above-trend base · +0.57% avg per 5-day trade
- IWM — 191 trades since 2000: 62.3% win vs 53.3% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
- VTI — 191 trades since 2001: 64.9% win vs 57.7% above-trend base · +0.47% avg per 5-day trade
- XLY — 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.1% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
⚠️ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated — simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was −8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.
🎯 MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS
📰 Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:
🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD
🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN
🟢 DFEN, GLD, XLE, VXX
🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN
🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN
🟢 DFEN, XLE, WEAT
📊 Ticker Signal Summary:
- 🟢 Bullish: XLE (Related to) ×6, DFEN (Related to) ×6, GLD (Related to) ×5, NVDA (Related to) ×2, MSFT (Related to) ×2, GOOGL (Related to) ×1
- ⚪ Mixed: DJT (Related to) ×2, SMH (Related to) ×1, FXI (Related to) ×1, BABA (Related to) ×1
🧠 MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES
PART 1 - TOP STORIES SUMMARY:
- Tech & AI Dominance Continues: The semiconductor and systems software sectors are leading today's momentum (up 3.9% and 2.9% respectively), with bullish news signals reinforcing NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, and AMD. This suggests institutional conviction in AI infrastructure spending remains intact despite broader market uncertainty. The alignment between sector momentum and individual ticker signals here is unusually clean.
- Defense & Energy as Safe Havens: XLE and DFEN both carry the strongest bullish news signal intensity (7B mentions each), while GLD follows closely at 6B. This trio suggests traders are simultaneously hedging geopolitical risk while positioning for energy demand — a classic risk-on/risk-off hybrid posture that implies underlying macro anxiety beneath the tech rally surface.
- Crypto Fear Signals Broader Risk Caution: A Fear & Greed reading of 25/100 (deep Fear territory) in crypto is a notable cross-asset warning. Historically, extreme crypto fear can bleed into speculative growth equities. Combined with bearish model predictions on select tech-adjacent names, this creates a bifurcated market where quality tech leads but speculative names face headwinds.
PART 2 - SHORT-TERM OPPORTUNITIES:
- Sector Rotation is the Meta-Trade Today: Money is visibly rotating *out* of Real Estate Services (-3.7%), Health Care Equipment (-3.6%), and Distillers & Vintners (-3.4%) and *into* Semiconductors, Software, and Financials (Investment Banking +2.7%). Traders should avoid bottom-fishing the losers today — the selling pressure looks broad and sector-level, not stock-specific.
- NVDA remains the highest-conviction tech play: Bullish news signal aligns with Semiconductor Materials & Equipment leading all sectors. While the model prediction confidence isn't extreme, the news momentum (2B mentions, zero bearish) combined with sector tailwinds makes NVDA the safest expression of today's tech theme for short-term traders.
- MSFT and GOOGL offer lower-volatility tech exposure: Both carry clean bullish news signals with no bearish mentions. Systems Software sector momentum (+2.9%) directly supports MSFT. For traders wanting AI exposure without semiconductor volatility, MSFT is the more defensive expression of the same theme.
- Surprising bearish conviction on WDC: The model flags WDC (Western Digital) as the highest-confidence bearish call at 86%. This is notable because it sits within the broader tech/semiconductor universe that's otherwise bullish — suggesting the market is differentiating *legacy storage* from *AI-driven semis*. WDC short or avoidance is well-supported today. SWKS (65% bearish) similarly represents the "old wireless" side of semis being left behind.
- Contrarian watch on crypto Fear reading: At 25/100, crypto fear is approaching levels that have historically preceded short-term bounces. This isn't a strong enough signal to act on alone, but traders in crypto-adjacent equities should note that sentiment extremes can reverse quickly — worth monitoring for an entry signal in the next 24-48 hours rather than today.
- GLD alignment is significant: With 6 bullish news mentions and zero bearish, GLD is being actively talked about. Combined with the defensive hedging
📆 Economic Calendar
No economic events scheduled. Market may be closed or holiday.
📊 PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS
Latest Options Activity: 2026-07-14
Market Sentiment Interpretation:
🐻⚠️ Moderately Bearish - Elevated put activity
Key Ratios:
- TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.930
Overall market sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.620
Individual stock sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.010
Index options sentiment - 🐻📉 Bearish (Put buying > Call buying - Downside protection)
- CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.320
Volatility sentiment - 🐻📉 Very Bearish (VIX Call buying >> VIX Put buying - High volatility expected)
💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:
- Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
- All key market sentiment indicators
03 — MARKET SENTIMENT
📊 FEAR & GREED INDEX
Data Collected: 2026-07-15 05:37:35
🏛️ Stock Market: 43/100 - FEAR 🟡
💡 Pessimistic sentiment
₿ Crypto Market: 25/100 - FEAR 🟡
💡 Fear & Greed Insights:
- Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
- Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
- Use as contrarian indicator for market timing
🟠 Reddit Trending Tickers:
- IBM: 1016 mentions, 7,476 engagement
- SPY: 321 mentions, 1,066 engagement
- MU: 304 mentions, 1,500 engagement
- MSFT: 227 mentions, 973 engagement
- NVDA: 141 mentions, 389 engagement
- QQQ: 122 mentions, 282 engagement
- SPCX: 118 mentions, 1,685 engagement
- ORCL: 114 mentions, 776 engagement
- NBIS: 99 mentions, 339 engagement
- LCID: 87 mentions, 174 engagement
- SNDK: 80 mentions, 328 engagement
- AMD: 75 mentions, 244 engagement
- DTE: 61 mentions, 284 engagement
- RKLB: 56 mentions, 144 engagement
- ASTS: 53 mentions, 161 engagement
🌍 TRENDING TOPICS (4 sources)
What people are searching, watching, and sharing today
🔍 Google Trending Searches:
- what time is the all star game (10000+ searches) — MLB All-Star Game 2026: Players we stop everything to watch
- francia - españa (5000+ searches) — Francia - España: Mundial 2026, en directo | Pedri es suplen
- aircraft pilot (5000+ searches) — ‘Sully,’ ‘Miracle on the Hudson’ Pilot, Announces Alzheimer’
- venezuela (5000+ searches) — Varios congresistas piden a Trump que levante las sanciones
- lucid (2000+ searches) — Lucid Plunges 50% as Reports Claim EV Maker Is Weighing a Ta
- jameis winston (2000+ searches) — 20 Questions in 20 Days: Rookies to watch
- france – espagne (1000+ searches) — Bradley Barcola titulaire à gauche, Aurélien Tchouaméni de r
- star trek mtg (1000+ searches) — Collecting Magic: The Gathering® | Star Trek™: A First Look
- charles snowden (1000+ searches) — Cowboys pass rusher Charles Snowden suspended 3 games by NFL
- senators promise act social security (1000+ searches) — Bipartisan group of senators propose Social Security reform
📖 Wikipedia Most-Viewed:
- Sam Neill (2,453,026 page views)
- Lindsey Graham (1,043,674 page views)
- Darline Graham Nordone (312,596 page views)
- 2026 FIFA World Cup (262,429 page views)
- Jude Bellingham (262,121 page views)
- Ann Widdecombe (235,368 page views)
- Jannik Sinner (226,786 page views)
- Mitch McConnell (222,344 page views)
- Erling Haaland (220,512 page views)
- Youri Tielemans (218,177 page views)
🔶 Hacker News Top Stories:
- Your 'app' could have been a webpage (so I fixed it for you) (639 pts, 407 comments)
- How to stop Claude from saying load-bearing (371 pts, 426 comments)
- European "age verification" "app" forcing everyone to use Android or iOS (344 pts, 224 comments)
- Are we offloading too much of our thinking to AI? (328 pts, 319 comments)
- Measuring Input Latency on Linux: X11 vs. Wayland, VRR, and DXVK (326 pts, 196 comments)
- Bonsai 27B: A 27B-Class model that runs on a phone (266 pts, 90 comments)
- The Tower Keeps Rising (265 pts, 126 comments)
- S&P downgrades Oracle to BBB – only one notch above junk level (218 pts, 178 comments)
▶️ YouTube Viral:
- Allah Tala ke madad 😭 #ytshorts #news #prayer#today#trending #emotional#youtubeshorts#shor — Deen Spark (765,849 views)
- BREAKING: US military launches 5-hour mission HAMMERING Iranian assets — Fox News (710,106 views)
- Innaikku romba busy day #meeranaveen #shorts # trending #trending #minivlog #viral #short — Meera Naveen (511,046 views)
- ‘Treasonous’: Trump brutally shuts down CNN’s Kaitlan Collins in humiliating confrontation — Sky News Australia (487,116 views)
- Iran War - New U.S. Strikes & Blockade Resumes - LIVE Breaking News Coverage — Agenda-Free TV (381,993 views)
- Iran RESPONDS after Trump announces US toll in Strait of Hormuz — Fox News (350,190 views)
🔬 CAUSAL VALIDATION
Grade distribution across 3 validated models: F:3
High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) — predictions have statistically confirmed signal
⚠️ 3 low-validity models (D/F): BAC, DIS, ODFL
Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.
🏛️ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES
📊 50 trades in last 14 days
🟢 22 Purchases | 🔴 28 Sales
Senate: 9 | House: 41
Most Active Tickers:
- 🟢 Bought: BEP ×6, SPCX ×2, ABT ×2, LHX ×2, IGV ×1
- 🔴 Sold: CCI ×2, ADI ×2, BLK ×2, CSCO ×2, UNH ×2
Recent Notable Trades:
- 🟢 SPCX bought by John James (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 ARLP sold by Virginia Foxx (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 AAPL sold by Sheldon Whitehouse (D-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 AAPL sold by Sheldon Whitehouse (D-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🟢 COHR bought by Sheldon Whitehouse (D-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 NVDA sold by Sheldon Whitehouse (D-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🟢 BEP bought by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 BIIB sold by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
—
Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant
02 — TODAY'S PREDICTIONS
🎯 Ticker Momentum
Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.
| # |
Ticker |
Score |
Daily Dir |
Daily Conf |
Daily AUC |
Weekly Dir |
Weekly Conf |
Weekly AUC |
Monthly Dir |
Monthly Conf |
Monthly AUC |
MR Q |
Regime |
Val |
Coverage |
| 1 |
WAB |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
75.1% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 2 |
WDC |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
86.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 3 |
IFF |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
64.1% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 4 |
SWKS |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
64.5% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
Lower Confidence Picks
(calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)
| # |
Ticker |
Score |
Daily Dir |
Daily Conf |
Daily AUC |
Weekly Dir |
Weekly Conf |
Weekly AUC |
Monthly Dir |
Monthly Conf |
Monthly AUC |
MR Q |
Regime |
Val |
Coverage |
| 1 |
BIO |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 2 |
COO |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 3 |
CPT |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 4 |
KEY |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 5 |
SWK |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 6 |
ZBRA |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 7 |
BAC |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 8 |
FFIV |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 9 |
JNJ |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 10 |
ODFL |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 11 |
USB |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
38.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 12 |
WFC |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 13 |
BBY |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 14 |
DIS |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 15 |
MCHP |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 16 |
MNST |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
38.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
📖 Legend
⚡ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%
📈 ↑ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum
📉 ↓ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum
Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting
AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)
Val: Causal validity grade (A–F) — statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal | C = moderate | D = 25% size | F = skipped by trading engine
MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold — potential bounce candidate |
Q4 Mildly oversold |
Q3 Neutral |
Q2 Mildly overbought |
Q1 Most overbought — potential fade candidate
Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend
Bull / Bear / Neutral
Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)
🟢 Green rows: High confidence (≥60%)
🔴 Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)
Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41%
(calibrated confidence reflects this)
Know someone who'd find this useful?
Share MoneySignals' daily predictions with your network
Subscribe at MoneySignals.us
Free tier available · Premium from $29/mo · API access from $49/mo
▶️ New on YouTube
The Daily 60-Second Market Recap
A fresh Short every market morning — the day's top signals, the news moving them,
and what we're watching, narrated in under a minute.
▶️ Watch & Subscribe
@investwithdave · new Shorts weekday mornings
💡
Sponsored
Meta Council — AI-Powered Decision Intelligence
Run any decision past a council of AI experts before you commit.
Meta Council assembles specialized AI agents—finance, strategy, risk,
contrarian—to stress-test your ideas from every angle. Think of it as
a boardroom you can summon on demand.
Try Meta Council →
Promo Code
INVESTOR2026
— exclusive extended trial
🚀 Want programmatic access?
REST API for 600+ ticker predictions, statistical analytics, and real-time signals
Explore moneysignals.us →
⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
📊 MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values.
They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.
💰 FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.
🚫 NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.
🤖 AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.
📈 SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.
📊 DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.
⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.
👤 INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
For questions or concerns, contact: dave@moneysignals.us