Generated: 2026-07-14 05:36:49 EST

01 — MODEL SCORECARD

How Our Picks Did — Monday, Jul 13

5/10 correct — 50% BEARISH calls 56% vs BULLISH 0%

Ticker	Predicted	Conf	Actual	Result	Return
CAT	↑ BULLISH	95.0%	↓ BEARISH	✗	-2.20%
NI	↓ BEARISH	84.0%	↑ BULLISH	✗	+0.36%
DE	↓ BEARISH	77.3%	↓ BEARISH	✓	-0.21%
CNC	↓ BEARISH	75.1%	↑ BULLISH	✗	+1.40%
CDW	↓ BEARISH	75.1%	↓ BEARISH	✓	-0.02%
BX	↓ BEARISH	75.1%	↓ BEARISH	✓	-0.85%
AWK	↓ BEARISH	75.1%	↑ BULLISH	✗	+0.64%
APO	↓ BEARISH	75.1%	↓ BEARISH	✓	-1.25%
ABT	↓ BEARISH	75.1%	↓ BEARISH	✓	-1.94%
CBOE	↓ BEARISH	75.1%	↑ BULLISH	✗	+3.38%

04 — NEWS & EVENTS

📰 MARKET-RELEVANT NEWS

💼 Business & Markets:

Dollar dips ahead of US inflation data, supported by rate outlook [Yahoo Finance] (20h ago)
Oil prices see largest two-day percentage gain in four months on U.S.-Iran fighting [MarketWatch] (20h ago)
Pricey Stocks Charge Into CPI, Earnings and Fed, All in One Day [Bloomberg] (20h ago)
Business declares war on Pentagon stock buyback, dividend restrictions moving in Sena... [CNBC] (20h ago)

🏛️ Economy & Fed:

India's inflation accelerates to 4.38% in June, exceeding forecasts [CNBC Economy] (18h ago)

🌍 World News:

U.S. Strikes Iran for 3rd Night, in Return to Open Conflict [NYT World] (21h ago)

💻 Technology:

New York becomes the first state to enact a data center moratorium [The Verge] (20h ago)

📊 7 of 36 headlines shown

🎯 CORE ENTITY TRACKER

Key individuals and organizations driving markets today

🇺🇸 US Political:

🔴 Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] — 12 mentions, 8 sources

Blanche Was a Driving Force in Retribution Campaign, Emails Show

🌍 Geopolitical:

⚪ Ali Khamenei [USO, XLE, GLD] — 1 mention, 1 source

US bombs Iran again, Tehran strikes Gulf, tankers: What’s the latest?

Signal strength: 🔴 high (5+ mentions or corroborated) 🟡 medium (2+ mentions) ⚪ low

📅 Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.

🎯 ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)

A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 → buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.

Signal state (as of 2026-07-13 close):

SPY — no fire (last: 2026-06-26, 10 trading days ago)
IWM — open hold window, day 3 of 5 (fired 2026-07-08). Entering mid-window was not part of the validated timing — informational only.
VTI — no fire (last: 2026-06-05, 24 trading days ago)
XLY — no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 27 trading days ago)

Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):

SPY — 266 trades since 1993: 65.4% win vs 58.0% above-trend base · +0.57% avg per 5-day trade
IWM — 191 trades since 2000: 62.3% win vs 53.3% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
VTI — 191 trades since 2001: 64.9% win vs 57.7% above-trend base · +0.47% avg per 5-day trade
XLY — 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.1% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade

⚠️ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated — simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was −8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.

📡 Live state, per-timing splits and every caveat via the free API: GET /api/v1/signals/etf-pullback — included with the free key every subscriber already has.

🎯 MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS

📰 Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:

1. Oil prices see largest two-day percentage gain in four months on U.S.-Iran fighting

🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN, USO

2. DOGE Used AI for Housing Policy. The Government Won’t Say How

🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD

3. U.S. Strikes Iran for 3rd Night, in Return to Open Conflict

🟢 DFEN, GLD, VXX, XLE

4. Business declares war on Pentagon stock buyback, dividend restrictions moving in Sena...

🟢 DFEN, GLD, XLE, VXX

5. US bombs Iran again, Tehran strikes Gulf, tankers: What’s the latest?

🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN

6. New York becomes the first state to enact a data center moratorium

🟢 NVDA, AMD, EQIX

📊 Ticker Signal Summary:

🟢 Bullish: GLD (Related to) ×5, XLE (Related to) ×4, DFEN (Related to) ×4, NVDA (Related to) ×3, AMD (Related to) ×2, VXX (Related to) ×2
🔴 Bearish: TLT (Related to) ×1
⚪ Mixed: XHB (Related to) ×1, DJT (Related to) ×1

🧠 MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES

PART 1 - TOP STORIES SUMMARY:

Inflation Hedge & Hard Asset Rally: The dominant narrative today centers on a broad flight to tangible assets and inflation protection. GLD leading news sentiment (4 bullish mentions) alongside TIP and USO/XLE signals a coordinated move into gold, energy, and inflation-protected securities. This isn't isolated — it reflects macro anxiety driving capital rotation away from growth/tech and into real assets. The TLT bearish signal confirms the flip side: bond markets are pricing in persistent inflation or ongoing rate pressure, making duration risk unattractive.

Energy Sector Dominance: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing topping industry momentum at +5.1% while XLE, USO, and XOM all flash bullish in the news ticker creates a strongly reinforced energy thesis. This is a multi-signal convergence — sector momentum, ETF flows, and single-stock news all pointing the same direction. Refining margins specifically suggest this isn't just a crude price story but an operational profitability story within energy.

Risk-Off Undercurrent Despite Selective Bullishness: Crypto Fear & Greed at 22/100 (Extreme Fear) and VXX bullish signals reveal that beneath the hard-asset enthusiasm, traders are hedging tail risk. The combination of defensive positioning (gold, energy, TIPS) with elevated volatility demand suggests this isn't a risk-on rally — it's a *defensive rotation* with inflation as the unifying theme.

PART 2 - SHORT-TERM OPPORTUNITIES:

Converging Energy Play — XLE/XOM: Industry momentum (+5.1% in refining), bullish news sentiment on both XLE (3B mentions) and XOM (1B mention), and macro inflation hedging all align. This is the strongest multi-signal confluence of the day. XLE offers diversified exposure; XOM provides single-stock leverage to the refining/integrated thesis. Watch for continuation if crude holds or TIP sentiment remains elevated.

Gold as the Anchor Trade — GLD: With the highest bullish mention count (4B/0b), GLD is the clearest news-driven signal today. Paired with TIP bullishness and TLT bearishness, the macro setup supports gold as a real-yield hedge. The absence of any bearish mentions makes this unusually clean. Short-term traders could treat any intraday pullback as an entry opportunity.

Volatility Hedge Consideration — VXX: The VXX bullish signal alongside crypto extreme fear (22/100) suggests sophisticated money is buying protection. This is a *warning signal for longs* elsewhere and a potential short-term opportunity for traders who want to pair directional bets with vol protection. Not a standalone trade, but meaningful as portfolio insurance today.

Model Standout Short — WDC: WDC carries the highest bearish model conviction at 86% — the strongest single directional call in today's dataset. Electronic Components is also the worst-performing GICS sub-industry today (-3.0%), providing sector-level confirmation. This double alignment (model prediction + sector weakness) makes WDD the most technically supported short idea of the day. Watch for any news-driven bounce as a potential entry point on the short side.

Contrarian Opportunity — Crypto Extreme Fear: With

📆 Economic Calendar
No economic events scheduled. Market may be closed or holiday.

📊 PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS

Latest Options Activity: 2026-07-10

Market Sentiment Interpretation:

🐻⚠️ Moderately Bearish - Elevated put activity

Key Ratios:

TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.810

Overall market sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.550

Individual stock sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)

INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.010

Index options sentiment - 🐻📉 Bearish (Put buying > Call buying - Downside protection)

CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.440

Volatility sentiment - 🐻📉 Very Bearish (VIX Call buying >> VIX Put buying - High volatility expected)

💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:

Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
All key market sentiment indicators

03 — MARKET SENTIMENT

Stock Market

Fear

Crypto

Extreme Fear

📊 FEAR & GREED INDEX

Data Collected: 2026-07-14 05:36:48

🏛️ Stock Market: 43/100 - FEAR 🟡

💡 Pessimistic sentiment

₿ Crypto Market: 22/100 - EXTREME FEAR 🔴

💡 Fear & Greed Insights:

Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
Use as contrarian indicator for market timing

🌍 TRENDING TOPICS (4 sources)

What people are searching, watching, and sharing today

🔍 Google Trending Searches:

ziaire williams (20000+ searches) — Sources: Lakers to add Ziaire Williams on 1-year, $3M deal
wi vs nz (2000+ searches) — West Indies and New Zealand embrace cricket's simple problem
tokyo labrador lochaber rescue (1000+ searches) — Labrador rescued from UK’s highest mountain after suspected
kfc popcorn chicken (1000+ searches) — KFC is bringing back a popular menu item. See what's returni
ps plus extra july 2026 (1000+ searches) — PlayStation Plus Premium July 2026 Game Revealed Early
roger penske (1000+ searches) — WATCH LIVE: Trump delivers remarks at Freedom 250 Grand Prix
houston weather (500+ searches) — Weather Impact Alert: Heavy downpours could lead to street f
pickaxe mountain (500+ searches) — Trump says the US will take out Pickaxe Mountain in Iran
san antonio spurs (500+ searches) — NBPA: Players 'carrying the burden' for teams due to second
prince harry family traditions diana (500+ searches) — Prince Harry on His Family Honors Mom Princess Diana’s Birth

📖 Wikipedia Most-Viewed:

Lindsey Graham (2,652,838 page views)
Jude Bellingham (818,677 page views)
Jannik Sinner (781,515 page views)
Alexander Zverev (529,859 page views)
2026 FIFA World Cup (506,910 page views)
Erling Haaland (505,741 page views)
Conor McGregor (474,875 page views)
Mitch McConnell (453,550 page views)
Lionel Messi (370,656 page views)
UFC 329 (343,937 page views)

🔶 Hacker News Top Stories:

LAPD lets contract with surveillance giant Flock expire (400 pts, 310 comments)
GhostLock, a stack-UAF that has existed in all Linux distributions for 15 years (376 pts, 169 comments)
Apple's new SpeechAnalyzer API, benchmarked against Whisper and its predecessor (369 pts, 160 comments)
A voxel Tokyo in real Japan time – ride the Yamanote line and study Japanese (317 pts, 60 comments)
Climate.gov was destroyed. Open data saved it (269 pts, 107 comments)
Backtrack-Free Cursive (228 pts, 100 comments)
The art and engineering of Sega CD Silpheed (183 pts, 36 comments)
Building and Shipping Mac and iOS Apps Without Ever Opening Xcode (163 pts, 70 comments)

▶️ YouTube Viral:

Allah ki madad #india #ytshorts #news #prayer #today #trending #emotional #youtubeshorts#s — Islamic Office (2,102,236 views)
Allah Tala ke madad 😭 💔#ytshorts #news #prayer #today#trending #emotional #youtubeshorts#s — Saleem RK (1,236,445 views)
Allah Tala ke madad 😭 #ytshorts #news #prayer#today#trending #emotional#youtubeshorts#shor — Deen Spark (1,064,627 views)
Allah Tala ke madad 😭 #ytshorts #news #prayer #today #trending #emotional #youtubeshorts#s — Little Sparks (639,470 views)
ওমান-কাতারে ইরানের ভ/য়া/বহ হা/ম/লা, বহু হতাহতের শঙ্কা! | Iran Attacks US Base | ATN Bangla — ATN Bangla News (608,113 views)
New U.S. Strikes on Iran - LIVE Breaking News War Coverage — Agenda-Free TV (433,544 views)

🔬 CAUSAL VALIDATION

Grade distribution across 4 validated models: F:4

High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) — predictions have statistically confirmed signal

⚠️ 4 low-validity models (D/F): BAC, DIS, ODFL, WTW

Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.

🏛️ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES

📊 50 trades in last 14 days

🟢 22 Purchases | 🔴 28 Sales

Senate: 9 | House: 41

Most Active Tickers:

🟢 Bought: BEP ×6, SPCX ×2, ABT ×2, LHX ×2, IGV ×1
🔴 Sold: CCI ×2, ADI ×2, BLK ×2, CSCO ×2, UNH ×2

Recent Notable Trades:

🟢 SPCX bought by John James (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
🔴 ARLP sold by Virginia Foxx (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
🔴 AAPL sold by Sheldon Whitehouse (D-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
🔴 AAPL sold by Sheldon Whitehouse (D-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
🟢 COHR bought by Sheldon Whitehouse (D-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
🔴 NVDA sold by Sheldon Whitehouse (D-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
🟢 BEP bought by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
🔴 BIIB sold by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000

—

Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant

02 — TODAY'S PREDICTIONS

🎯 Ticker Momentum

Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.

#	Ticker	Score	Daily Dir	Daily Conf	Daily AUC	Weekly Dir	Weekly Conf	Weekly AUC	Monthly Dir	Monthly Conf	Monthly AUC	MR Q	Regime	Val	Coverage
1	WAB	100	📉 ↓	75.1%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
2	WDC	100	📉 ↓	86.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
3	IFF	100	📉 ↓	64.5%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3

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Lower Confidence Picks (calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)

#	Ticker	Score	Daily Dir	Daily Conf	Daily AUC	Weekly Dir	Weekly Conf	Weekly AUC	Monthly Dir	Monthly Conf	Monthly AUC	MR Q	Regime	Val	Coverage
1	BIO	100	📈 ↑	45.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
2	COO	100	📈 ↑	45.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
3	CPT	100	📈 ↑	45.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
4	KEY	100	📈 ↑	45.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
5	NI	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
6	SWK	100	📈 ↑	45.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
7	WTW	100	📈 ↑	45.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
8	ZBRA	100	📈 ↑	45.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
9	BAC	100	📈 ↑	45.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
10	FFIV	100	📈 ↑	45.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
11	JNJ	100	📈 ↑	45.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
12	ODFL	100	📈 ↑	45.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3
13	SWKS	100	📉 ↓	48.3%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
14	USB	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
15	WFC	100	📈 ↑	45.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
16	BBY	100	📈 ↑	45.4%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	N/A	1/3
17	DIS	100	📈 ↑	33.7%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%	—	—	—	F	1/3

📖 Legend

⚡ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%

📈 ↑ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum

📉 ↓ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum

Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting

AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)

Val: Causal validity grade (A–F) — statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal | C = moderate | D = 25% size | F = skipped by trading engine

MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold — potential bounce candidate | Q4 Mildly oversold | Q3 Neutral | Q2 Mildly overbought | Q1 Most overbought — potential fade candidate

Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend Bull / Bear / Neutral

Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)

🟢 Green rows: High confidence (≥60%)

🔴 Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)

Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41% (calibrated confidence reflects this)

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⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

📊 MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values. They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.

💰 FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.

🚫 NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.

🤖 AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.

📈 SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.

📊 DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.

⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.

👤 INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
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