Generated: 2026-07-13 05:38:07 EST
01 — MODEL SCORECARD
How Our Picks Did — Friday, Jul 10
3/10 correct — 30%
BEARISH calls 30%
| Ticker |
Predicted |
Conf |
Actual |
Result |
Return |
| DIS |
↓ BEARISH |
86.4% |
↓ BEARISH |
✓ |
-0.57% |
| IFF |
↓ BEARISH |
86.4% |
↓ BEARISH |
✓ |
-1.27% |
| PG |
↓ BEARISH |
86.4% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
+0.13% |
| CDW |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
+2.98% |
| BG |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
+0.62% |
| CCI |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
+3.89% |
| COP |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
+0.94% |
| CHRW |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
+0.38% |
| ABT |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↓ BEARISH |
✓ |
-0.50% |
| AWK |
↓ BEARISH |
75.1% |
↑ BULLISH |
✗ |
+0.11% |
🎯 CORE ENTITY TRACKER
Key individuals and organizations driving markets today
🇺🇸 US Political:
- 🟡 Donald Trump [SPY, DIA, QQQ] — 4 mentions, 4 sources
Mercurial and Magnetic, Lindsey Graham Was a Force in the Senate
🏢 Corporate Leaders:
- 🟡 Warren Buffett [BRK.B] — 1 mention, 1 source ✅ LOBBY
Berkshire's $397B Bet Against an Overheated Market
🏛️ Institutions:
- ⚪ Federal Reserve [SPY, TLT, GLD, QQQ] — 1 mention, 1 source
Fed’s Bowman Urges Global Financial Watchdog to be Flexible
Signal strength: 🔴 high (5+ mentions or corroborated) 🟡 medium (2+ mentions) ⚪ low
📅 Important Events for Tomorrow
No major events scheduled for tomorrow.
🎯 ETF PULLBACK SIGNAL (validated mechanical rule)
A pre-registered rule, not an ML prediction: an ETF closes above its 200-day average with 2-period RSI below 10 → buy, hold 5 trading days. The only signal in this product that cleared pre-registered kill-tests on ~30 years of history.
Signal state (as of 2026-07-10 close):
- SPY — no fire (last: 2026-06-26, 9 trading days ago)
- IWM — open hold window, day 2 of 5 (fired 2026-07-08). Entering mid-window was not part of the validated timing — informational only.
- VTI — no fire (last: 2026-06-05, 23 trading days ago)
- XLY — no fire (last: 2026-06-02, 26 trading days ago)
Measured record (next-open entry, de-overlapped fires, full history):
- SPY — 266 trades since 1993: 65.4% win vs 58.0% above-trend base · +0.57% avg per 5-day trade
- IWM — 191 trades since 2000: 62.3% win vs 53.3% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
- VTI — 191 trades since 2001: 64.9% win vs 57.8% above-trend base · +0.47% avg per 5-day trade
- XLY — 238 trades since 1998: 62.6% win vs 55.1% above-trend base · +0.69% avg per 5-day trade
⚠️ Backtest statistics, not live trading results. These four ETFs are highly correlated — simultaneous fires are closer to ONE bet than four. The 5-day hold is unprotected by design (stops and profit targets were tested paired on the same fires; every overlay cost expectancy, and the worst historical trade was −8%). The 2005-2014 era did not clear the gate. Not financial advice.
🎯 MARKET SIGNALS FROM NEWS
📰 Key Headlines & Ticker Implications:
🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN, USO
🟢 NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMD
🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN
🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN
🟢 XLE, GLD, DFEN
📊 Ticker Signal Summary:
- 🟢 Bullish: GLD (Related to) ×5, XLE (Related to) ×4, DFEN (Related to) ×4, USO (Related to) ×1, XOM (Related to) ×1, NVDA (Related to) ×1
- ⚪ Mixed: TSLA (Related to) ×1, RIVN (Related to) ×1, LCID (Related to) ×1, LIT (Related to) ×1
🧠 MARKET SYNTHESIS & OPPORTUNITIES
PART 1 - TOP STORIES SUMMARY:
- Defensive & Hard Asset Rotation Dominates: The most compelling narrative today is a broad flight toward safety and real assets. GLD (gold) and XLE (energy) both carry strong bullish signals with unanimous positive mention counts, while crypto fear sits at a depressed 28/100 — collectively painting a picture of investors seeking inflation hedges and tangible value over speculative risk. This isn't random noise; it's a coordinated signal.
- Defense & Infrastructure Over Growth: DFEN (aerospace/defense ETF) joining GLD and XLE in the bullish column — while IT Consulting lands as the worst-performing GICS industry today — suggests the market is actively rotating *away* from growth/tech services and *toward* hard infrastructure, defense, and commodities. This theme is reinforced by the model's bearish flag on MSFT, a rare but notable signal for a mega-cap.
- Agricultural & Industrial Pockets of Strength: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals (+2.8%) and Telecom Tower REITs (+3.4%) topping industry momentum suggests niche infrastructure and food security themes are quietly gaining traction — potentially driven by geopolitical undercurrents that are also lifting defense sentiment.
PART 2 - SHORT-TERM OPPORTUNITIES:
- Macro Setup: Risk-Off with Selective Value Pockets
The Crypto Fear & Greed at 28 signals broad risk aversion, but this isn't a blanket sell-everything environment — it's a *rotation* market. Sectors with real assets, government contracts, and pricing power are absorbing capital fleeing from tech and discretionary growth names. Traders should resist chasing momentum in beaten-down tech and instead follow the rotation trail.
- Signal Convergence Alert — Bullish Model Picks in a Defensive Context:
The model's top bullish names — BIO, COO, CPT, KEY, and SWK — all sit at 45% bullish confidence. While individually modest, their appearance together in a risk-off tape is meaningful. CPT (Camden Property Trust, residential REIT) is particularly interesting given Telecom Tower REITs are leading — real estate sub-sector divergence suggests *residential* REITs may be bottoming while commercial struggles. KEY (KeyCorp, regional bank) could benefit if rate expectations stabilize.
- Bearish Signal Worth Respecting — MSFT Stands Out:
MSFT appearing in the top bearish predictions (58%) on a day when IT Consulting is the worst-performing industry is a notable alignment. This isn't a strong enough signal for aggressive shorting, but it does suggest trimming or hedging large-cap tech exposure, particularly names tied to consulting/enterprise IT spend.
- EV Space is a Void — Avoid for Now:
TSLA, RIVN, LCID, LIT, and ALB all register completely neutral with zero bullish or bearish mentions. In a market with this many strong directional signals elsewhere, dead silence in EVs suggests institutional disinterest. Capital has clearly moved on for the near term — no edge here.
- Surprise Pattern — Airlines vs. Agricultural Chemicals:
Passenger Airlines (-1.9%) getting hit on the same day energy (XLE) is strongly bullish creates an interesting dynamic — rising fuel cost expectations may be pricing pain into carriers. This is an *
📆 Economic Calendar
No economic events scheduled. Market may be closed or holiday.
📊 PUT/CALL RATIO ANALYSIS
Latest Options Activity: 2026-07-10
Market Sentiment Interpretation:
🐻⚠️ Moderately Bearish - Elevated put activity
Key Ratios:
- TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.810
Overall market sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- EQUITY PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.550
Individual stock sentiment - 🐂✅ Bullish (Call buying > Put buying - Moderate upside)
- INDEX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.010
Index options sentiment - 🐻📉 Bearish (Put buying > Call buying - Downside protection)
- CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.440
Volatility sentiment - 🐻📉 Very Bearish (VIX Call buying >> VIX Put buying - High volatility expected)
💡 SECRET TIER ACCESS:
- Complete Put/Call ratio analysis
- All key market sentiment indicators
03 — MARKET SENTIMENT
📊 FEAR & GREED INDEX
Data Collected: 2026-07-13 05:38:06
🏛️ Stock Market: 49/100 - NEUTRAL ⚪
💡 Balanced sentiment
₿ Crypto Market: 28/100 - FEAR 🟡
💡 Fear & Greed Insights:
- Extreme Fear = Potential buying opportunity
- Extreme Greed = Potential selling opportunity
- Use as contrarian indicator for market timing
🔬 CAUSAL VALIDATION
Grade distribution across 3 validated models: F:3
High-validity (A/B): 0 tickers (0%) — predictions have statistically confirmed signal
⚠️ 3 low-validity models (D/F): BAC, ODFL, WTW
Trading engine applies 25% sizing (D) or skips (F) these tickers.
🏛️ CONGRESS STOCK TRADES
📊 50 trades in last 14 days
🟢 23 Purchases | 🔴 27 Sales
Senate: 6 | House: 44
Most Active Tickers:
- 🟢 Bought: BEP ×6, HUBB ×6, ABT ×2, LHX ×2, ENTG ×2
- 🔴 Sold: CCI ×2, ADI ×2, BLK ×2, CSCO ×2, UNH ×2
Recent Notable Trades:
- 🔴 AAPL sold by Sheldon Whitehouse (D-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 AAPL sold by Sheldon Whitehouse (D-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🟢 COHR bought by Sheldon Whitehouse (D-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 NVDA sold by Sheldon Whitehouse (D-S) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🟢 BEP bought by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🔴 BIIB sold by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
- 🟢 CRM bought by Maria Elvira Salazar (R-H) — $15,001 - $50,000
—
Source: STOCK Act disclosures via QuiverQuant
02 — TODAY'S PREDICTIONS
🎯 Ticker Momentum
Ranked by composite backtest score. Direction from classifier, confidence from regressor.
| # |
Ticker |
Score |
Daily Dir |
Daily Conf |
Daily AUC |
Weekly Dir |
Weekly Conf |
Weekly AUC |
Monthly Dir |
Monthly Conf |
Monthly AUC |
MR Q |
Regime |
Val |
Coverage |
| 1 |
MSFT |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
58.3% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 2 |
NI |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
84.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 3 |
WAB |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
75.1% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 4 |
WTW |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
75.1% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 5 |
IFF |
100 |
📉 ↓ |
75.1% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
Lower Confidence Picks
(calibrated confidence <55% — treat with caution)
| # |
Ticker |
Score |
Daily Dir |
Daily Conf |
Daily AUC |
Weekly Dir |
Weekly Conf |
Weekly AUC |
Monthly Dir |
Monthly Conf |
Monthly AUC |
MR Q |
Regime |
Val |
Coverage |
| 1 |
BIO |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 2 |
COO |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 3 |
CPT |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 4 |
KEY |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 5 |
SWK |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 6 |
WDC |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 7 |
ZBRA |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 8 |
BAC |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 9 |
FFIV |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 10 |
JNJ |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 11 |
ODFL |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
F |
1/3 |
| 12 |
SWKS |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 13 |
USB |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
33.7% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 14 |
WFC |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
| 15 |
BBY |
100 |
📈 ↑ |
45.4% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
0.0% |
— |
— |
— |
N/A |
1/3 |
📖 Legend
⚡ Score: Composite backtest performance (0-100 scale)
Weighted: Sharpe Ratio 40% + Win Rate 35% + IC 25%
📈 ↑ BULLISH - Model indicates upward momentum
📉 ↓ BEARISH - Model indicates downward momentum
Confidence: Direction accuracy from model backtesting
AUC: Area Under ROC Curve from classifier (classification quality metric)
Val: Causal validity grade (A–F) — statistical confidence the model captures real signal rather than data-snooping artifacts.
A/B = confirmed signal | C = moderate | D = 25% size | F = skipped by trading engine
MR Q (Mean-Reversion Quintile): Cross-sectional rank among all predicted tickers
Q5 Most oversold — potential bounce candidate |
Q4 Mildly oversold |
Q3 Neutral |
Q2 Mildly overbought |
Q1 Most overbought — potential fade candidate
Regime: Ticker's own 50-day price trend
Bull / Bear / Neutral
Coverage: Number of timeframes with valid signals (Daily/Weekly/Monthly)
🟢 Green rows: High confidence (≥60%)
🔴 Red rows: Low confidence (<52%)
Historical accuracy: BEARISH 62% | BULLISH 41%
(calibrated confidence reflects this)
Know someone who'd find this useful?
Share MoneySignals' daily predictions with your network
Subscribe at MoneySignals.us
Free tier available · Premium from $29/mo · API access from $49/mo
▶️ New on YouTube
The Daily 60-Second Market Recap
A fresh Short every market morning — the day's top signals, the news moving them,
and what we're watching, narrated in under a minute.
▶️ Watch & Subscribe
@investwithdave · new Shorts weekday mornings
💡
Sponsored
Meta Council — AI-Powered Decision Intelligence
Run any decision past a council of AI experts before you commit.
Meta Council assembles specialized AI agents—finance, strategy, risk,
contrarian—to stress-test your ideas from every angle. Think of it as
a boardroom you can summon on demand.
Try Meta Council →
Promo Code
INVESTOR2026
— exclusive extended trial
🚀 Want programmatic access?
REST API for 600+ ticker predictions, statistical analytics, and real-time signals
Explore moneysignals.us →
⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
📊 MOMENTUM INDICATORS, NOT PREDICTIONS:
The signals in this report are momentum indicators, not predictive values.
They reflect current technical momentum and historical patterns, but do NOT predict future price movements with certainty. Markets are inherently unpredictable and past momentum does not guarantee future direction. Use these indicators as one input among many in your research process.
💰 FINANCIAL DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information provided is not intended to be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.
🚫 NO INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
We do not recommend, endorse, or suggest any specific investments, securities, or trading strategies. The analysis provided is based on historical data and statistical models that may not accurately predict future market movements. Market conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.
🤖 AUTOMATED ANALYSIS:
This report is generated by automated systems using machine learning models. These models have limitations and may produce inaccurate results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.
📈 SCORE METHODOLOGY:
The Score column represents a composite backtest performance metric, combining Sharpe Ratio (40%), Win Rate (35%), and Information Coefficient (25%). Higher scores indicate models with better historical backtested performance, but this does NOT guarantee future results.
📊 DATA ACCURACY:
While we strive for accuracy, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information provided. Data sources may have errors, delays, or other issues that could affect the analysis.
⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
This service is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind. We disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.
👤 INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY:
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and their outcomes. You should conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
By using this service, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers.
For questions or concerns, contact: dave@moneysignals.us