Research evidence and economic schedules
Review dated model diagnostics and original schedule sources. No qualified longer-horizon finding is presented.
Recorded daily diagnostic
Issue dates: 2026-08-30 to 2026-09-28.
3116 of 6350 graded forecasts matched direction (49.1%).
6363 recorded; 6350 graded; 13 ungraded.
Source: stored model_predictions; latest per ticker and New York issue date. Records can be revised.
Recorded daily direction labels are not portfolio returns. Direction accuracy does not establish weekly or monthly buy-and-hold performance.
Four-week follow-up — separate data snapshot, not qualified
August 31–September 28, 2026: research returned -2.82%, versus SPY +0.18% and random accounts averaging -4.95%, after 0.10% per purchase/sale. It lost money and trailed SPY; beating random baskets does not establish an edge. Monthly results remain pending until the October 1 endpoint is measured. This is not this edition's return.
The provider changed 335 historical rows, including 115 with raw-price changes. The strict extension therefore withholds returns. The separately planned calculation below uses the complete new data snapshot and the same frozen baskets. It does not replace the earlier report. Earlier-window net-return differences are 0.00 percentage points across all 18 comparisons.
| Account | 0% | 0.10% | 0.25% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research baskets | -2.04% | -2.82% | -3.98% |
| SPY buy-and-hold | +0.38% | +0.18% | -0.12% |
| Fixed-universe buy-and-hold | -3.82% | -4.01% | -4.30% |
| SPY with research allocation/rebalancing | +0.38% | -0.42% | -1.61% |
| Fixed universe with research allocation/rebalancing | -3.83% | -4.59% | -5.73% |
| 100 random funded accounts, mean | -4.18% | -4.95% | -6.08% |
The $10,000 research account ends at $9,717.59: $9,711.27 cash plus $6.32 unpaid dividends. Costs total $78.40; drawdown at observed marks is -3.89%. All books now include final sale costs. No actual fills or subscriber performance are claimed.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 20:00 UTC; observed: 2026-09-29 01:53 UTC. This fixed snapshot does not mature automatically. Both plans are post-inspection; the revised population excludes three known identity conflicts. Publication, original inputs and complete eligibility are unverified. Four periods are insufficient to establish durable skill. Controls are not sector- or beta-matched; related random draws are not independent evidence. Tariff, rate, inflation and dip timing were not tested.
Both complete twelve-case records, including rejected and pending results. Each line covers 0%, 0.10% and 0.25% costs per side:
- Strict extension; Original (238 names); weekly; all three costs: incomplete; 4/4 periods matured, 0 pending; 3 known identity conflicts.
- Strict extension; Original (238 names); monthly; all three costs: pending; 0/1 periods matured, 1 pending; 3 known identity conflicts.
- Strict extension; Revised (235 names); weekly; all three costs: incomplete; 4/4 periods matured, 0 pending; 0 known identity conflicts.
- Strict extension; Revised (235 names); monthly; all three costs: pending; 0/1 periods matured, 1 pending; 0 known identity conflicts.
- Separate new data snapshot; Original (238 names); weekly; all three costs: incomplete; 4/4 periods matured, 0 pending; 3 known identity conflicts.
- Separate new data snapshot; Original (238 names); monthly; all three costs: pending; 0/1 periods matured, 1 pending; 3 known identity conflicts.
- Separate new data snapshot; Revised (235 names); weekly; all three costs: measured; not qualified; 4/4 periods matured, 0 pending; 0 known identity conflicts.
- Separate new data snapshot; Revised (235 names); monthly; all three costs: pending; 0/1 periods matured, 1 pending; 0 known identity conflicts.
Funded weekly/monthly study — exploratory, hypothetical, not qualified
The revised weekly research account returned -1.79% after 0.10% costs per purchase and sale, versus SPY buy-and-hold +0.01%. This short study does not establish a profitable or predictive edge. Monthly results remain pending.
Measured window: 2026-08-31 13:30 UTC to 2026-09-21 13:30 UTC; 3 of 4 weekly periods completed. Fixed outcome cutoff: 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC; evidence observed 2026-09-28 00:17 UTC. Pending cases do not update automatically. This is a historical appendix, not this edition's weekly return.
Each account starts with $10,000.00 once, with no later contributions, borrowing or shorting. Research selects up to ten bullish daily forecasts by saved score within a fixed population, equally weighted, entering at the next session open and holding to the next calendar boundary. Scores are not calibrated probabilities. These are not weekly/monthly model forecasts or actual subscriber returns.
| Account | 0% | 0.10% | 0.25% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research baskets | -1.20% | -1.79% | -2.67% |
| SPY buy-and-hold | +0.11% | +0.01% | -0.14% |
| Fixed-universe buy-and-hold | -2.59% | -2.69% | -2.84% |
| SPY with research allocation/rebalancing | +0.11% | -0.49% | -1.38% |
| Fixed universe with research allocation/rebalancing | -2.55% | -3.13% | -4.00% |
| 100 random funded accounts, mean | -2.91% | -3.49% | -4.36% |
Ending research value at primary costs: $9,821.21, comprising $9,811.16 spendable cash and $10.05 unpaid dividend receivables. Modeled costs: $58.88; maximum drawdown at observed marks: -3.89%, not every intraday trough. Splits and dividend payment timing are included; cash earns zero interest.
The partial valuation follows the September 21 research sale and precedes its next purchase. Buy-and-hold controls remain invested and have not paid a final exit cost. September 21–25 performance is excluded. Allocation-matched controls use the research trading schedule. Random accounts use the same period and costs; their mean is not a probability of success. Controls are not sector- or beta-matched.
All twelve cases, including incomplete and pending results:
- Original, 238 names; weekly; 10 bps per side: incomplete; 3/4 periods matured, 1 pending; 3 known identity conflicts.
- Original, 238 names; weekly; 0 bps per side: incomplete; 3/4 periods matured, 1 pending; 3 known identity conflicts.
- Original, 238 names; weekly; 25 bps per side: incomplete; 3/4 periods matured, 1 pending; 3 known identity conflicts.
- Original, 238 names; monthly; 10 bps per side: pending; 0/1 periods matured, 1 pending; 3 known identity conflicts.
- Original, 238 names; monthly; 0 bps per side: pending; 0/1 periods matured, 1 pending; 3 known identity conflicts.
- Original, 238 names; monthly; 25 bps per side: pending; 0/1 periods matured, 1 pending; 3 known identity conflicts.
- Revised, 235 names; weekly; 10 bps per side: partial; 3/4 periods matured, 1 pending; 0 known identity conflicts.
- Revised, 235 names; weekly; 0 bps per side: partial; 3/4 periods matured, 1 pending; 0 known identity conflicts.
- Revised, 235 names; weekly; 25 bps per side: partial; 3/4 periods matured, 1 pending; 0 known identity conflicts.
- Revised, 235 names; monthly; 10 bps per side: pending; 0/1 periods matured, 1 pending; 0 known identity conflicts.
- Revised, 235 names; monthly; 0 bps per side: pending; 0/1 periods matured, 1 pending; 0 known identity conflicts.
- Revised, 235 names; monthly; 25 bps per side: pending; 0/1 periods matured, 1 pending; 0 known identity conflicts.
The revised population excludes three documented identity conflicts from the original 238 names. Original cases remain visible; this does not certify eligibility of the other 235 names. The plan was fixed before these funded calculations but after viewing earlier cohort results and identity findings. This post-inspection amendment, small sample and related observations prevent a skill claim. Original publication timing, input availability and complete historical eligibility remain unverified. Longer holding and dip timing still require separate prospective tests.
Economic schedule and sources
Economic calendar — 2026-09-30Selected high-importance US economic and policy events.
- Personal Income & Outlays (PCE) — August data08:30 EDT (America/New_York)Source schedule · Source reviewed 2026-09-28Pinned from the official agency release schedule.
US release schedule pins through 2026-12-31; selected releases only.
Importance is MoneySignals editorial classification. These are schedule facts; actual, forecast and previous values are not supplied. Source review dates are not live update times. Schedules can change.
Research over weeks and months
Holding-period research must freeze selections before entry and compare returns after costs and dividends with the same-window benchmark, retaining losses.
No qualified longer-horizon finding is available in this edition. A scheduled release does not establish the direction of the market response.